Stinson Dean🌲
@LumberTrading
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#Lumber trader. Husband. Father of 4. Fly Fishing. Chiefs. #BuildMoreHomes ; 🧵 @lumbertrading
Colorado, USA
Joined June 2014
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Pinned Tweet
Lumber market basically in recession. New lows being set in cash markets.
Buy it before you need it. When you need it, it’ll be double today’s price.
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Tricky tricky!
Mahomes pretends to tell Pacheco whom to block in pass pro. But it was a ruse all along!
If you’re blitzing and the QB is telling the RB his blocking assignment, the last thing you think is screen to the RB!
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Between 5 companies, 100 employees, 4 equity partners…I can tell you the labor market for $35k-$40k workers is extremely tight.
Here’s a thread on how we’ve fixed our labor problems, are overstaffed, and have lower turnover compared to peers.
A 🧵/25.
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There’s a long thread out there that I shortened up to just two tweets:
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If your business is only profitable because you pay labor minimum wage, you’re basically a zombie company at this point.
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just sold truck of lumber I had bought at $1550, for $550.
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if la croix doesn’t make it thru the weekend, I just want to say that every flavor basically tasted the same
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Many many stories of $35k workers just quitting on the spot; leaving business owner in a lurch. I think blue collar workers only do that when a) you treated them like they were replaceable & b) they could easily replace their boss.
Employees are flexing hard. As they should.
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That’s it. I’ve seen enough. Lumber squeeze of 2021 is over.
I think cash will follow soon.
Where’s the floor?
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Hiked 26 miles all-in to catch this once-in-a-lifetime fish. 11,500’ elevation alpine lake in rock mountain national park. Caught a 20”(-ish) Colorado River Cutthroat. A catch of a lifetime.
Please congratulate me on all my success.
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Just so we are clear, the only reason you follow me is because 3-1/2 years ago I dumbed into being levered-long lumber inventory just before a historic construction supply chain shortage.
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Imagine having the ability to click a few buttons and get a 5% return on risk free govt bonds, and instead invested in an apartment complex.
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Y’all. Now I’m thinking about our population problem. Low birth rates. Who’s gonna buy my house and my business in 30 years? Robots?
Please
#havemoresex
. I’ve had sex at least 4 times. It’s not that difficult. Get after it!
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Finally got to meet the newest member of the Deacon Lumber trading floor.
She’s clearly very happy to be on the team.
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Colorado online roster has links to all the players’ social media and direct link to hire the player for NIL money.
Alabama has the players’ height and weight.
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Weird how this works.
Pay increases in wood products has lead to full recovery in labor force.
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Here’s a stat that explains a lot, a lot. From
@TheStalwart
and
@tracyalloway
’s odd lots guest:
1/3 of the housing stock is owned by someone 65 or older. And more than 50% of those boomer-owned homes were bought in 1999 or earlier.
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Any one else’s think or swim / Schwab mobile app not working?
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🚨 🚨 🚨 Lumber futures set new all time high trading at $1700 🚨 🚨 🚨
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you're a Canadian mill. You're selling the US for $1640, but can sell China for $1476 and get to same return due to US tax on your lumber.
Say the tariff is lifted, China now has to pay $1640 to get the same wood, or else it goes to the US.
Let's do that.
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“I wish our president would lead like this” -shows picture Zelenskyy near front lines, military geared up.
You’re gonna need to vote for a young person if that’s what you want.
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As a Christian w strongly held beliefs about life and bottom up prosperity (upside down kingdom), I feel like we should be pushing America to be the best place on earth to have a baby.
Paternal leave, child tax credits, equitable childcare options, better education, low poverty
Y’all. Now I’m thinking about our population problem. Low birth rates. Who’s gonna buy my house and my business in 30 years? Robots?
Please
#havemoresex
. I’ve had sex at least 4 times. It’s not that difficult. Get after it!
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LUMBER IS DOWN. Massive pool of offers trying to sell July but can't due to limit triggers. They're stuck.
Meanwhile, no sawmills in Canada have offered any wood for sale yesterday or today (sold out). Hard to see May futures not hold its value while speculators panic in July
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I suffer from depression. Diagnosed about 5 years ago. On SSRI & doing well, but still a battle. AMA
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Kinda funny it’s settled fact that housing is headed to the graveyard but lumber prices just spiked back above $1000.
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We paid off our (relatively cheap Midwest) house in 2017. We did it because it reduced personal risk that allowed me go take massive professional risk starting Deacon Lumber.
Mitigating that risk had better return than anything else I could have done w the cash.
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For those in the impossible position of estimating lumber costs for some 2021 project, move your number higher.
There is a really, really good chance we are higher for longer. Demand is too strong, and mills don't have spare capacity to meet it.
Demand side is the driver.
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My kids’ school struggled to find a long term sub for 3rd grade. My wife, a former 3rd grade teacher, stepped up to help.
She’s grading papers. Ran parent-teacher conferences. Tutors kids after school.
She’s amazing. All in, all the time.
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Spoke to
@TheAtlantic
about the real reason lumber prices are 3x the 2006 price, even though we are completing 40% less homes.
Why is lumber $1500 when we only complete 1.3mm homes / year; and it was only $450 when we were building 2mm homes / year?
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Personal news incoming:
#Breaking
🇨🇱 Leftist candidate Gabriel Boric has won the Chilean presidential election.
Over 50% of the votes have been counted and Boric holds a 10-point lead. Right-wing candidate José Antonio Kast has conceded the race.
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lol look at Kelce. He didn’t even turn around. He watched the big screen to see the TD 😂 😂
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Once, I didn’t get a job offer so I asked for feedback. They said: I was too intense (read: not a good culture fit, good call); and I didn’t wear a blue or white dress shirt with my suit.
Today I wore a chiefs jersey to meeting in Miami with a billion dollar family office.
Just finished interviewing a candidate.
He showed up in a suit and tie.
My first reaction was that he’s polished, professional, and respectful.
You can never be overdressed for a job interview.
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Hard to construct stuff without construction materials
Big job gains in hospitality & education --> a clear sign of return to in-person activities.
Hospitality: +292,000
Education (public+private): +144,000
Healthcare: +46,000
Manufacturing: +23,000
Warehouse: +23,000
Temp help: +4,000
Oddly, construction LOST 20,000 jobs in May
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Ok. If you thought the past few weeks have been wild in
#lumber
futures, then wait until Monday. It begins the no limit trading period in the May contract until it expires May 14th.
I think the next couple weeks could rival negative oil in absolute insanity.
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After graduating college into the worst economy ever(?), I just don’t understand why folks have a problem with erroring on the side of a tight labor markets and button up stimulus.
We did the big business/bank bailout thing last time. I never got trickled on.
Bottom ⬆️!
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Let’s be super clear: lumber prices are double pre covid levels.
The fact they aren’t 6x preCOVID levels anymore makes $550 feel low.
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Until you try to get a mortgage.
Criminal how school never teaches you that making $80k in self employment with the ability to write off expenses can be better than taking a $100k salary
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Put your kids in things that involve failure. Sports, theatre, school student council.
My daughter didn’t get a part in the play she wanted and she’s devastated. Embarrassed. Ashamed. All the feelings.
But at 10 years old you have a chance to mold them way better than 18.
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These poor builders struggling to get materials.
Home builder gross margins hit new highs in 3Q-2021.
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You ever been on the office toilet so long the timed motion lights turn off?
And maybe someone walks in and you feel like u need to announce yourself, and maybe you feel like u need to explain why you were here in the dark and how the lights did that automatically? Happy Friday
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#Lumber
thoughts:
seems like we are going to break the all-time high.The industry largely accepts this. $2000/mbf is on everyone's mind.
Why? Some are caught short...again...BUT most folks did good job buying but have gotten absolutely hosed by rail logistics out of Canada 1/x
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It's official. The
#lumber
futures market traded into a carry. The market is now paying you to store lumber. It's not paying you enough to cover carrying costs, but the supply situation has changed enough to incentivize some storage.
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Please believe we are in a terrible recession and panic sell me all your stuff.
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Full offense intended here: fuck you.
What an ass. A really sad time for the RE community on here and this absolute manbaby says “no comment” to then go on to make a comment about how he ‘told ya so.’
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Housing Doomers are going to be so upset when every asset class suffers except single family home values.
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Apparently Tucker is talking lumber. Wonder if he blames too much gov’t stimulus for the beetle kill infestation, record breaking British Columbia forest fires and slow growth rate of spruce trees?
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Do you know how many people I could hire away from Amazon warehouses if I could offer health insurance? or employees had a public option to get covered?
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Lol.
Rep. Boebert (R-CO): “We have more than 25% of federal employees not logging into work.”
@USOPM
Dir. Kiran Ahuja: “I do take issue with the characterization.”
Boebert: “It’s in this leaked document.”
Ahuja: “You’re basing that from 2020, which is in the last administration.”
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I’ve become the Twitter guy I least wanted to be: lumber reply guy.
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I have 5 days left until May futures expires and, likely, my relevance will expire too. Going out w a bang.
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Today a fly-fishing guide said Paul Tudor Jones owns an incredible stretch of river in Colorado that he stocks with trout from his own hatchery, run by his personal fish biologist. And they selectively breed monster brown trout that they put trackers in to hunt down poachers.
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Lumber sell off much more of a supply side story, but soft demand not helping.
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A literal panic buy. Coaching my first baseball practice tonight.
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IMO: Businesses that don't raise wages now will find themselves having to pay even higher later to compete against those of us who did raise wages.
Kinda feels like getting long ahead of short squeeze (h/t
@pearkes
)
[We hiring a bunch of folks at the moment so it's top of mind]
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My wife appreciates me more for promptly unpacking my suitcase after a nice vacation than for taking us on the nice vacation itself.
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Traveling today. Might push out a thread on my battle with managing my depression.
The journey, the damage, the collateral damage, the symptoms, and the new normal.
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If there's ever a "buy American Lumber" phase of this super cycle, folks going to be surprised to know the Canadians own 50% of SYP production in the US South.
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Sorry y’all. It just got under my skin. As someone who got leveraged to the tits, used home as collateral, liquidated retirement, maxed $75k in CC’s, cashed out nice home to buy a $100k house in “scary” neighborhood, and much more…. “I never got a loan guy” doesn’t do it for me.
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A big reason you can’t find good labor is because someone else already hired them.
Expanded UI seems to have given some folks time to find a job they really like. Instead of being under the pressure of paycheck-to-paycheck, they were able to slow down and find the right job.
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Lumber is the leading indicator for all things. Just accept it, and open a futures account to trade it.
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I’ve turned down a lot of media (believe it or not) lately because I have nothing new to say. But I’ll never turn down my hometown
@41actionnews
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PEOPLE CAN’T GET HOMEOWNERS INSURANCE IN YOUR STATE, YOU DOLT.
DeSantis: We are going to launch an inquiry about bud light and it could lead to a derivative lawsuit filed on behalf of the shareholders of the Florida pension fund
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Lumber trader vibe check:
The amount of wood out there and the lack of any juice for months is second only to GFC crash.
I’d guess 1/2 of today’s lumber traders were also trading back in ‘07/‘08. Avg age over 50 today.
Is this the market that pushes some folks to hang it up?
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It was fun while it lasted.
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🚨 🚨 🚨 May lumber futures break $1300 intraday.
If only you could see what is happening in the cash markets, you’d consider futures tame. 🤯🤯
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I often take the little girls to preschool in the mornings. I couldn’t break away from work to drive them so they’ve been with me all day.
Lunch date!
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If we are ever going to build enough homes, we can’t lose the labor we currently have to layoffs. They’ll never come back.
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if anyone learned anything from my 90 day run as celebrity lumber trader, I hope it's how to read the futures curve/term structure. (contango, backwardation, inverted curve)
The curve doesn't tell you what you think it does at first glance. In fact, it's normally the opposite!
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