LeoLabs
@LeoLabs_Space
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Persistent orbital awareness for safety and security in space 📡🛰️
Menlo Park, CA
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Too close for comfort. 😳
At ~06:30 UTC today we observed a conjunction at 608 km between two non-maneuverable spacecraft: a derelict Russian satellite and an operational NASA satellite.
Miss distance = <20 meters
Probability of collision = 3 to 8% at TCA
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No indication of collision. 👍
CZ-4C R/B passed over LeoLabs Kiwi Space Radar 10 minutes after TCA. Our data shows only a single object as we'd hoped, with no signs of debris.
We will follow up in the coming days on Medium with a full in-depth risk assessment of this event!
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We are monitoring a very high risk conjunction between two large defunct objects in LEO. Multiple data points show miss distance <25m and Pc between 1% and 20%. Combined mass of both objects is ~2,800kg.
Object 1: 19826
Object 2: 36123
TCA: Oct 16 00:56UTC
Event altitude: 991km
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⚠️ We've detected a secondary object in close proximity to Object C, a payload released by Russian satellite COSMOS 2570 around October 30.
Our radar measurements indicate that this newest object was released by Object C, possibly on November 23 at 14:00 UTC.
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⚠️ On Sept 13, a derelict Soviet-era payload had a conjunction with a Chinese rocket body.
The miss distance was 36 m (± 13 m) and the probability of collision was 1E-3 (i.e., 0.1% or 1/1,000).
While we've seen more nail biting events, this one is notable — here's why.
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Another close call in LEO. ⚠️🛰️
Around 7:00 ET today (May 16), we observed a close conjunction at ~545 km between a satellite recently launched out of China and a defunct Soviet-era satellite from 1984.
This incident illustrates the collision risk posed by
#SpaceDebris
.
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Data from the most recent event updates show miss distance of 25 meters (+/- 18 meters at 1-sigma uncertainty). We will gather observation data tonight from the first radar pass after TCA to hopefully confirm no new debris is detected.
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Some new debris objects from today's breakup (orange orbit) visualized relative to ISS (blue orbit). Objects in white denote largest pieces of Cosmos 1408 tracked by LeoLabs. (Dots not to scale.) Debris ranges in altitude from 440 to 520km.
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1/ This event continues to be very high risk and will likely stay this way through the time of closest approach. Our system generates new conjunction reports 6-8x per day on this event with new observation data each time.
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1/ We are monitoring a close approach event involving IRAS (13777), the decommissioned space telescope launched in 1983, and GGSE-4 (2828), an experimental US payload launched in 1967.
(IRAS image credit: NASA)
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Our latest data confirms Cosmos 2004 is still intact. Our final risk assessment showed a computed miss distance of 11 meters (+16 / -11 meters at 1-sigma uncertainty).
More to come next week as we will share a more detailed risk analysis of this event.
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On April 13, we detected a large maneuver by Object 53357, the PRC’s experimental spaceplane.
This maneuver resulted in a decrease in altitude from 613 - 355 km.
Shown below: the previous orbit is in orange and the new one is in blue.
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2/ On Jan 29 at 23:39:35 UTC, these two objects will pass close by one another at a relative velocity of 14.7 km/s (900km directly above Pittsburgh, PA). Our latest metrics on the event show a predicted miss distance of between 15-30 meters.
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With new data from Kiwi Space Radar gathered at 1620 UTC, we confirm detection of multiple objects near expected location of Cosmos 1408. We will share supporting data as we gather it today.
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Further processing of recent LeoLabs data on
#Cosmos1408
breakup shows 216 unique objects identified so far. This number will grow significantly as we gather more data and the objects begin to further separate from one another in their new orbits.
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Final update prior to close approach: 47 meter predicted miss distance, w/ increased separation in the cross-track direction. Next scheduled radar passes for both objects to occur approximately two hours after the event.
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3/ Shortly after TCA, we will have a direct pass of CZ-4C R/B over our Kiwi Space Radar in New Zealand. We have scheduled a search mode scan during this time to ensure we only see two objects as expected and hopefully confirm that no new debris is detected.
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This visualization shows our latest information on the event:
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Too close for comfort... 😳
Two large, defunct objects in
#LEO
narrowly missed each other this morning — an SL-8 rocket body (16511) and Cosmos 2361 (25590) passed by one another at an altitude of 984km. 🚀⚠️
#SpaceDebris
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We are pleased to report that in the first several radar passes of the two objects after the close approach, we see no evidence of new debris. This event has served to highlight the collision risks caused by derelict satellites in LEO.
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4/ Events like this highlight the need for responsible, timely deorbiting of satellites for space sustainability moving forward. We will continue to monitor this event through the coming days and provide updates as available.
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2/ Current risk metrics from our most recent CDMs:
Miss distance: 12 meters (+18/-12 meters)
Probability of Collision: >10%, scaled to account for large object sizes
Relative velocity: 14.7 km/s
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Thankfully our latest data following the event shows no evidence of new debris. To be sure, we will perform a further assessment upon the next pass of both objects over Kiwi Space Radar occurring later tonight.
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We're proud to work with
@SpaceX
as a valued partner to ensure continuous safety of flight for the Starlink constellation.
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Our initial data shows at least 30 unique objects detected near expected location of Cosmos 1408. The objects currently span a distance range of ~40km as viewed from our radar sites.
These data plots show a subset of the objects (12), indicated by orange dots circled in red.
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Latest analysis shows 288 debris objects confirmed from
#Cosmos1408
breakup. This Gabbard diagram shows the apogee / perigee for 253 of these objects with orbits fit by LeoLabs (real data, not simulated).
Of note, some objects have perigees <420km that cross into
#ISS
orbit.
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3/ These numbers are especially alarming considering the size of IRAS at 3.6m x 3.24m x 2.05m. The combined size of both objects increases the computed probability of a collision, which remains near 1 in 100.
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We've shared some thoughts and preliminary analysis on the
#Cosmos1408
breakup in our newest blog post, read it here:
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We've written a second blog post providing our latest assessment of the Cosmos 1408 breakup, based on all available data.
Read Part II here:
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1/ Our latest update this morning for IRAS / GGSE 4 shows a 12m miss distance, with a Probability of Collision (Pc) back to 1 in 100.
Here is a plot of our last five days worth of miss distance updates on this event:
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We're excited to announce that we have selected Costa Rica as the location to build our next radar, further advancing on our mission to track small space debris and secure the LEO environment. Read the full announcement here:
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Transporter-1 is the biggest rideshare mission in history, and we’ll be tracking it. We’re jazzed to support both
@SpaceX
and
@SpaceflightInc
to provide their customers with our Launch and Early Orbit tracking service.
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1/ Why does this event matter?
This event is notable because it is rare. In the last two years, there have been only 6 events with a miss distance of < 20 m between two intact, non-maneuverable objects.
Plus, it would've been dangerous...
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Our latest data on the IRAS / GGSE 4 event shows potential miss distances of 13-87 meters, with a lowered collision probability currently at 1 in 1000. Time of closest approach remains at 2020-01-29 23:39:35.707 UTC
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This latest data download from Costa Rica Space Radar collected at 21:58 UTC shows a subset of the new debris objects from
#COSMOS1408
breakup; well north of 100 new objects shown here with altitudes ranging from 440-520km.
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Today we're excited to announce the completion and full operational status of the newest radar in our global network: Costa Rica Space Radar.
Read the full press release here:
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4/ There are nearly 12,000 fragments in
#LEO
as of 15 February. This one incident could've added 50% more debris.
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We're on our final day of active tracking for the newly deployed payloads from the
@SpaceX
#Transporter5
mission. So far we've fit initial orbits to 40+ payloads and coordinated with multiple operators to ensure they can reliably communicate with their new satellites!
🛰️🛰️🛰️
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We are tracking a debris-generating event at 630 km altitude from the RESURS O1 satellite (23342), that occurred in the early hours of Aug 27th. We have detected and are following up on many new debris objects from the event.
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4/ Adjusting our calculations to account for larger object sizes (by increasing our combined Hard Body Radius from 5m to 10m), this yields an updated collision probability closer to 1 in 20.
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5/ Though it is still unlikely that these objects will collide, we have tasked our radars to schedule longer duration tracking on both objects following the event to search for evidence of any new debris (and hopefully not find any!)
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3/ Our analysis indicates that a collision would've resulted in ~2,000 to 7,000 cataloged fragments. This number is derived from analyzing the total mass, spacecraft construction, relative velocity, and encounter geometry.
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2/ The resulting debris of a collision between these two objects, COSMOS 2221 and TIMED, would've created an increased collision risk on a large portion of LEO but especially on nearby lower orbits used by large constellations and human spaceflight.
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Need a fun distraction? Try these 3⃣ things with our free
#LEO
visualization:
1⃣ Switch on the ground view from a set location. This allows you look up (virtually) from wherever you are to see what's whizzing by today.
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1/ Cosmos 807 and CZ-4C had a combined hard body radius (HBR) of 5.6 m. This contributed to the relatively large probability of collision (PC) value.
If these two objects had collided, the number of resulting cataloged fragments would have likely been ~3,000. 🤯
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1/ Based on our radar tracking data, we computed a miss distance of only 6 meters with an error margin of only a few tens of meters.
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We received data from our New Zealand-based Kiwi Space Radar early Monday morning (EST) indicating that the PRC Test Spacecraft2 (NORAD ID: 53357) recently deployed a payload.
Our data showed a previously non-tracked second object in the vicinity of the spacecraft. (See below.)
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Congrats
@SpaceX
on the launch of Transporter-1! We got our first of several looks at all the newly deployed payloads just hours after launch, as they transited our Kiwi Space Radar. We're tracking them all, and working with operators to confirm payload IDs.
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We are tracking this event as well and concur with results of
@EU_SST
. Our system has generated 46 CDMs over the past 7 days, with current predicted miss distance of 44 meters and a scaled collision probability of ~2%.
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5/ Now, let's dig a bit deeper...
The combined mass of COSMOS 2221 and TIMED is 2,530 kg. The relative velocity at TCA was ~14 km/s, well above the 6 km/s threshold for a hypervelocity event.
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We're excited to announce that our sixth radar site will be in
#Australia
! The West Australian Space Radar will provide a strategic location for tracking satellites and space debris in the Southern Hemisphere.
Read more here:
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5/ 🤷♀️ Why does this matter?
Sub-satellite deployments are important to monitor for space safety and security. These capabilities can be a method of deploying co-orbital ASATs or covert payloads that may pose a risk to sensitive or classified satellites.
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Today we are proud to announce the completion of the newest radar in our network, Kiwi Space Radar!
Read the full press release here:
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6/ We'll continue to closely monitor these spacecraft, as well as perform object characterization and patterns-of-life analysis to further identify their capabilities.
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7/ The most likely event was that one of the object's solar arrays would clip the other object’s main body. In that case, one object would've been destroyed and the other would've been damaged.
Ex: if TIMED clipped COSMOS 2221, the total fragment count could've been ~2,500.
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6/ If the two objects hit center-of-mass on center-of-mass, it could have created up to three times the objects’ combined mass (i.e., ~7,500 fragments).
☝️ However, this was highly unlikely.
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We're now operationally tracking many Cosmos 1408 new debris fragments in our LeoLabs object catalog. Here's a visualization of the current 200+ added so far in their new orbits; this number will continue to grow in the coming days and weeks.
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2 / To put that into perspective, the 2021 Russian ASAT test resulted in ~1,800 total cataloged fragments over time.
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1/ Since the launch of COSMOS 2570 on October 27, LeoLabs has observed similar maneuver patterns and behaviors to another Russian satellite, COSMOS 2565.
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We're pleased to announce the site for our 5th space radar to be the
#Azores
, reflecting our investment in Portugal and establishing our long-term presence in Europe.
The Azores Space Radar will become operational in the first half of 2022!
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2/ The miss distance was ~30.6 meters with a PC of 1.9e-2 at the time of closest approach.
The relatively flat line below indicates that our radar coverage, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere, provided consistent and reliable measurements of the objects’ relative position.
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Today we're proud to offer our new Collision Avoidance service directly to satellite operators around the world. Read more here:
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3/ 🛰️ A closer look at Cosmos 807:
This 400 kg payload was launched into an elliptical orbit in 1976. It's likely Cosmos 807 has had many close encounters with other objects over time...
And we've observed quite a few of them.
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We're pleased to announce the completion of our $65 million Series B financing round, led by
@insightpartners
. This round allows us to rapidly accelerate the growth of our global radar network and SaaS platform to address the data deficit in LEO.
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4/ In the last 20 months, we've observed 50 high-PC (i.e., PC > 1E-6) conjunctions involving Cosmos 807.
While the majority were with operational payloads, 14 included fragments — 6 of which were from the fragment cloud generated after Russia's 2021 ASAT test.
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To all our new followers: welcome! We track satellites and space debris in low Earth orbit, providing services to help prevent collisions and enable a safer operating environment for all. View and search through our full 14,000 object catalog here:
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As we've begun routinely tracking hundreds of debris fragments from the Cosmos 1408 breakup, we've added a Part III to our initial assessments of this event published last month:
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We will continue to monitor the space environment for these types of close approaches and provide updates when we see high risk scenarios.
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2/ Launched in November 2022, COSMOS 2565 has released subsequent payloads COSMOS 2566 and OBJECT D. COSMOS 2565 is believed to be a Lotos-S1 electronic reconnaissance satellite of the Liana system.
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7/ 💁♂️ What's the point?
This event illustrates an emerging trend of “old” and "new" derelict objects mixing.
This is contributing to concerns about the inevitable massive-on-massive collision that will likely produce 1000s of fragments, posing a risk to
#satellites
we rely on.
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This week, we upgraded our max tracking ranges for our S-band radars from 1500km to 2500km, allowing us to track 100+ more objects in "upper LEO". 🛰️🌎🛰️
As a result, some high-flying satellites we're seeing for the first time...hello,
#Globalstar
!
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2/ It's important to note that this conjunction occurred in one of the "bad neighborhoods" we've talked about before: 950 - 1050 km. 🏚️
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3/ Since we learned that GGSE 4 has a deployed 18m boom and we do not know which direction it is facing relative to IRAS, this changes the assumptions used in computing collision risk.
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Since the spaceplane launched in August 2022, we’ve observed multiple large maneuvers raising the object’s altitude — as well as repeated deployments, formation flying, and docking of a sub-satellite OBJECT J (NORAD ID 54218).
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3/ COSMOS 2566 is believed to be a satellite carrier and its sub-satellite Object D is believed to be a small electronic reconnaissance satellite.
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Here is an interactive visualization of this event based on our most recent data. Click "Jump to TCA" to see how close these objects should pass to one another:
1/ We are monitoring a close approach event involving IRAS (13777), the decommissioned space telescope launched in 1983, and GGSE-4 (2828), an experimental US payload launched in 1967.
(IRAS image credit: NASA)
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4/ Given the similarities emerging between COSMOS 2570 and COSMOS 2565, LeoLabs’ analysts expect that Object C and this newest deployed object may be maneuverable.
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Thanks to
@MKBHD
for checking out our LEO visualization platform! There's a lot of space junk up there and it's our mission to track it all 📡💪
I just spent way too long in this incredible visualizer of all the satellites currently in low earth orbit.
Here’s a link so you can too:
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7/ It's imperative that we not only focus on collision avoidance but also debris mitigation and debris remediation to combat
#SpaceDebris
. This requires investing in debris removal technologies and missions. 🧹🗑️
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6/ How do we know all this?
We use our analytic tool, LeoMap, to determine dangerous orbits and objects by consolidating historical conjunction information. Our comprehensive dataset enables this unique capability.
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5/ 🚀 A closer look at CZ-4C:
This 2,000 kg rocket body was abandoned five years ago — and it's already been involved in 141 high-PC conjunctions, split almost equally between fragments and operational payloads.
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We're honored to be selected for Best Product in the inaugural
@Forbes
Science Awards for our Collision Avoidance Service. We're moving fast in 2021 - building new radars, deploying new software services, and tracking new small debris!
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We're excited to partner with
@SpaceX
to provide launch & early orbit payload tracking for their SmallSat Rideshare Program.
Learn how we supported
@SpaceX
and
@SpaceflightInc
customers on Transporter-1, as we prepare to do the same for Transporter-2! 🚀
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We're now adding unique 3D models to our catalog visualization page to represent satellites for different operators. Search "Starlink", "Flock", or "Iridium" to see the new updates!
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7/ Had the SL-8 rocket body and Cosmos 2361 collided, it likely would've resulted in thousands of new debris fragments that would have persisted for decades.
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2/ The 12m total miss distance has components of:
11m radially
0m in-track
5m cross-track
We can visualize this conjunction geometry from the top-down and side-on views of the event at TCA:
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This new mission phase could indicate preparations for landing of the reusable spaceplane — or something new entirely.
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We've been tracking CZ-5B R/B and have new data collected over past ~16 hours.
Custom-fit TLE for our astronomer friends:
0 LEOLABS125
1 48275U 12345AAA 21125.60453200 +.02021128 +76029-5 +39360-3 0 04
2 48275 41.4678 181.6102 0095227 219.3075 310.9311 16.19157171000006
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6/ Why's this a big deal? 🤔
We've identified this kind of collision — between two massive derelict objects — as a "worst-case scenario" because it's largely out of our control and would likely result in a ripple effect of dangerous collisional encounters.
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We've had a great week of tracking the new
#Transporter2
payloads to support satellite operators during the first few days of the mission.
Congrats again to
@SpaceX
,
@SpaceflightInc
and all their customers on a successful launch and deployment!
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3/ This region has significant debris-generating potential in
#LEO
due to a mix of breakup events and abandoned derelict objects. 🛰️🚀🪨
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Dr. Darren McKnight shares unique insights into the topic of space debris management, and how large defunct objects pose a much higher collision risk in LEO than well-controlled operational constellations. 🛰️
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We could all use a little fun this Friday, so here are four things to try out with our free
#LEO
visualization... 🌍🛰️
#FridayVibes
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Them: "What's the biggest risk to operational
#satellites
in LEO?"
Us: "Well, statistically..."
Space debris:
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Four facts about Tierra del Fuego:
🧊 ~5000 km from Antarctica
🔥 Translates to "Land of Fire"
🇦🇷 Eastern region belongs to Argentina
📡 Home to our next
#space
radar
Did you catch that?... 👀
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