Chuck_Penner
@LeftFieldCR
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LeftField is your research department for 16 Canadian crop markets - small grains, oilseeds & special crops - adding confidence to marketing decisions
Winnipeg, Canada
Joined October 2011
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For 48 weeks a year,
@leftfieldcr
and
@JonDriedger
cover 8 special crops, 2 oilseeds and 6 grains focused on Canada but with a global view. For a free 4-week trial of any of our four reports, go to
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Still not 100% on-board with everything about the trucker group, but when the PM's strategy escalates from calling people names to calling in the army, that's seriously poor leadership.
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10
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So Alberta parents who don't give their son antibiotics are criminals. Ranchers who don't use them are humane? Hmm.
1
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67
If
@JustinTrudeau
was really serious about getting rid of tax loopholes, he would eliminate tax breaks for political donations. Hmmm
5
27
66
Also just finished this. Interesting thesis that most global events have their roots in the grain trade. In particular, cheap US wheat starting in mid 1800s had huge impact on Europe and Russia. Lot of detail about a man named Parvus and his influence.
4
9
67
@shaunhaney
Our country would be in a much better position if Rona Ambrose and Chrystia Freeland were the two main party leaders.
9
4
66
So here's the latest canola crush scorecard:
JRI Yorkton expansion - 1.1 mln tonnes
Viterra Regina - 2.5 mln t
Cargill Regina - 1.0 mln t
Ceres Northgate - 1.1 mln t
FCL/AGT Regina - 1.1 mln t
Grand total = 6.8 mln t of new capacity, most to open in 2024
Ripple effects aplenty.
15
21
65
Just got a call from "Service Canada" threatening "legal action against my social insurance number". Rolled the dice and hung up. Hope I did the right thing.
18
1
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Any chance you'll talk to him about the 50% import tariff on dry pea imports or 30% tariff on lentils that are affecting our farmers?
Next month, I’ll travel to India to meet with leaders in government & business to strengthen the close friendship between our two countries. More:
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676
3K
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25
49
Guess who was the largest customer of Cdn durum in July? Yes, Italy is back.
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12
48
Well, that's a good sign. Chinese canola/rapeseed imports at 739,000 tonnes in Dec. That would be a record!
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14
43
Canola crop in Sask deteriorating. Gd/Ex at 48% vs average of 60%
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29
46
Moisture situation in India remaining serious. Since beginning of Oct, north central and NW less than 5% of normal rain.
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Hadn't looked at this soil moisture map in a while. Yoink!
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Sask Ag provincial crop yields: canola 20 bu/acre, RS wheat 27, durum 19, barley 38, peas 21, lentils 13.6.
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This is what happens when every exporter (except Australia) runs out of barley.
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5
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Unpopular opinion: people who ask how high the market will go clearly have no marketing plan.
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30 years ago, we started on a journey. Wow, we were just kids! So much to be thankful for.
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So China had a record corn crop in 2023? Well, that makes these Dec grain imports quite puzzling then.
1
8
38
Just learned (after 10+ years) that the term canaryseed isn’t related to birds, but rather that the crop originated from the Canary Islands. It's more accurate to say “Canary seed” rather than “canaryseed”. Think "Brussels sprouts".
5
5
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C'mon
@environmentca
. 4 of 9 weather radar stations are down in the prairies. Of course, it's just the growing season, so it doesn't really matter, right?
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8
36
Here's my resolution for 2020: To listen more closely to wise people, not just smart people. There's a world of a difference between the two. And it takes some wisdom to figure out which is which.
1
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So... Two big risks in grain markets. One, that the conflict in Ukraine continues. The other, that it stops.
2
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For some reason, my wife sent me this pic last night. I'm not sure what she's trying to tell me.
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It’s actually very clear why prices are going higher.
Durum prices around the region surge prior to harvest via
@agupdatecom
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8
33
Oh look, Alberta canola is almost in twice as good shape as Saskatchewan!
7
14
32
After a series of lower highs, May canola is poised to take out the previous one in January.
Turning point?
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2
32
LeftField is pleased to announce
@JonDriedger
earned his PhD in Individual Interdisciplinary Studies from the University of Manitoba. Jon’s research focused on using futures and options to manage risk in western Canadian agriculture.
Way to go, Jon!
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6
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I'm old enough to remember when urban farming used to be called "gardening".
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FYI: Sask Ag durum yield at 30 bu/acre versus last StatsCan at 38.8 bu/acre. The difference? About 1.5 mln tonnes.
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Interesting reading from 1915. Almost all grain goes thru Port Arthur and Fort William to Great Britain and Europe. "Possibly in time Vancouver will attain somewhat the same or perhaps equal importance as a grain handling port, due to the Panama Canal."
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So if China is acknowledging its winter wheat crop could be the worst ever, would that also apply to its (also winter) rapeseed crop?
Things that make me go "hmmm" on a Friday afternoon.
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So, China's Nov canola imports weren't just a one-month wonder after all. Dec imports of 545,000 tonnes.
2
9
28
It's our anniversary! We've just finished 10 years out in LeftField. Thanks to our loyal clients. We're drawing two names to receive 6-month subscription extensions. Any new sign-ups in May get a 10% discount. Find us at .
5
1
28
So let me get this straight:
Hacking is illegal, except...
Doxxing is an invasion of privacy, unless...
0
2
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Can I condemn racism and condemn government overreach?
Asking for me.
5
2
28
So I went in to the credit union to try to pay off my CEBA loan. Nobody knew how to do it, because no one had tried to pay theirs yet. Am I a sucker?
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Nov canola on an impressive run. Taking out the Dec highs. Next target, $880 from Nov 2022.
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Something's going on in the canola market. Exports finally waking up?
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8
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Is this the type of year that getting hailed out is considered a win?
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Lettering was the last of the bodywork. Now it just needs to warm up and dry out so I can take it for a spin.
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Wow, losing the Saudis as a barley customer will mean....... absolutely nothing for Canada.
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Not a bad hotel room view at the Pulse & Special Crops convention in Swift Current.
Or is it Banff? You be the judge.
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Just did a bit of simple math. Overall Canadian crop production in 2021 dropped 25 mln tonnes from the 5-yr average. That has a lot of impacts on the rural economy beyond the farmgate.
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Someone's building up canola stocks. Highest all year.
I wonder why? Hmm.
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Lentil prices in Mumbai starting to react to smaller Cdn crop. Don't ask how high it will go. I (re)learned that lesson in 21/22.
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Youngest just passed her class 3 license for summer job with
@BASFAgSolutions
. Still could use a booster seat, but anyway...
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We are pleased to announce that Alyssa Mistelbacher Newton has joined us out in LeftField as a Research Analyst. Alyssa brings over a decade of experience in western Canadian crop markets, adding depth and capacity to LeftField’s analytical and research work.
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In case anyone cares about the 1.5 mln acres of canola in North Dakota.
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Gonna be a dry year, in more than one way, without a US barley crop.
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It's been a long time since China imported no canola from Canada. Yoink!
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@lesleyraekelly
@sf28430
My question: If ppl don't like meat, that's fine. But why do they keep trying to make it look and taste like meat (that they don't like)?
3
6
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Got an advance signed copy at the Fields on Wheels conference yesterday. Looking forward to finding out how Viterra was able to take over UGG.
3
4
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Not a surprise, but just one more problem for the 2021 Cdn canola crop. Low seed supplies and even lower oil availability. Oil content results from
@Grain_Canada
harvest samples.
0
11
24
Well, that's bit of good news. 247,000 tonnes of canola exports in week 27
2
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LeftField is pleased to support families that need help this season. For every free trial request (no duplicates pls) we get from Canada in December, LeftField will donate $50 to food banks in western Canada, up to a max of $10k.
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Is this the same Ottawa that's telling farmers to use fewer inputs? And turn more canola oil into renewable diesel? My, how quickly they pivot!
Ottawa urges farmers to grow more grain as food crisis deepens
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If the Saskatoon crop is any indication, things are looking pretty good around here.
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@PKeller11
@Joe_Widdup
Not all of them. Our daughter lost a job at U of M and could have gone on CERB. Instead she's driving 400 km to Redvers every week, thanks to
@SE_ResearchFarm
. She wanted to get experience for the long-term. Proud of her.
2
0
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And you thought N Dak wheat was looking bad.
Canola: Hold my beer.
2
11
23
ABARES' latest estimate of 2021 Aus canola crop tops 5.0 mln tonnes, a new record. Last year's crop was also bumped up.
2
10
23
So... Notice anything different about EU rapeseed imports this year?
5
11
23
I'm afraid I don't know how high yellow pea bids can go.
Very volatile situation with lots of questions:
Will tariff drop only last 3 months?
How many peas will come from Rus, Aus, US?
How bullish/stubborn will farmers get?
Will the rabi crop get more rain?
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9
23
Played around with 2021 StatsCan crop yields. Have heard a few times barley and oats did worse than others. Doesn't really show up here. Hope you find this interesting.
2
13
22
Hmm, didn't the EU just finish its durum harvest? It's almost as if they're short.
3
9
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Just guessing, but it looks like the Indian import restrictions on peas is starting to have an effect.
5
20
22
Well, look at that. Indian pulse prices starting to make a move?
1
8
22
First time I've come across this map. Number of days in the last 90 with no meaningful rain. A lot in the 82-90 day range.
5
15
22
Alta Ag has a canola yield of 24.9 bu/acre, 60% of the 5-yr avg. So just for kicks, if we take that 40% yield reduction for the rest of the prairies (with some extra abandonment), it works out to Cdn canola crop of 12.1 mln tonnes. Hmmm.
7
6
22
Thought this might be interesting. StatsCan's 2023 yields versus the olympic average (last 5 years, high & low removed).
Pulses & durum took the biggest hits.
3
11
21
Soil moisture still a concern across a wide area of western Canada, as of Feb 28.
2
13
22
Press release from AGT Foods: Oat processing facility to be commissioned at Aberdeen, SK. No details on capacity but plan to be ready by end of 2022.
Lots of good news in last year or two for domestic processing of canola, oats and pulses.
0
5
22
FYI, this week's report from Sask Ag had the canola yield at 35 bu/acre. That compares to StatsCan last week at 41.1 bu/acre. Just putting that out there.
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22
This is where landslides have damaged rail lines. Reports suggest it could be both CN and CP.
3
21
22
That grain isn't going anywhere. If that's near Lytton, it would be CN or CP main line?
BC Is A Disaster 🙏🏽❌
.
#Flood
#coquihalla
#evacuation
#BCStorm
#mudslide
#BritishColumbia
#HopeBC
#MerrittBC
#rainfall
#Weather
#canada
#BCFlood
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6
14
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So
@JustinTrudeau
defends shoveling money from taxpayers to Bombardier while denouncing "wealthy" small businesses. Huh?
0
6
21
@lesleyraekelly
Treat other people well. It's a small industry and you'll meet up with them again. A good reputation is worth a ton.
0
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Back in January, I told someone that farmers would get another chance to sell red lentils at 25 cents, but I'd be lying if I said I predicted this latest spike.
#wowsers
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Lots of talk about farmers being undersold. It depends.
And yes, I realize deliveries do not equal sales. Whatev.
2
4
21
Just doing some math for a presentation.
Canadian crop production in 2021 was down roughly 30,000,000 tonnes from the year before.
That represents a loss of $13,400,000,000.
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