Lee Sharpe
@LeeSharpeNFL
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He/him | | Developer @nflseedR | Game data @nflfastR | Former Betting Analyst @PFF | Go Bears
Renton, WA
Joined October 2014
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Matt LaFleur's son on the right wants fans to be very aware that he is not the one making these picks.
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The Lions have scored the most points in the NFL this season with 140.
They are 1-3.
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A friend just sent me this ten-year-old prize structure for a Starcraft tournament, and I can't stop laughing.
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It is hilarious to me that Delta's statement here calls it the "B.1.617.2 variant" because they don't want to call it the "delta variant".
BREAKING: Delta Air Lines says unvaccinated employees must pay $200 per month surcharge for health insurance.
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If someone is fired after emails revealed their bigotry and you say "How would like you someone go through your emails?", I feel like this says a lot about what is in your emails.
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A possible Chiefs/Bills AFCCG is at a neutral site because had Bills won Week 17 MNF, they'd be better seed. So split the difference; neither plays at home.
But if Bengals had won Week 17 MNF, they'd be a better seed than Bills. So why isn't Bengals/Bills game at a neutral site?
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If the Bears win tonight, the draft order changes from
1) Bears
2) Bears (from Panthers)
to
1) Bears (from Panthers)
2) Bears
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Philip Rivers is in trouble.
New guidelines from the White House suggest avoiding social gatherings of more than 10 people.
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Each team's 2021 opponents.
Every team plays against teams with the same row, column, or color, and the increasingly likely 17th game is the same shape.
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Wow. Game of the Year so far.
Win Probability Chart for 2019 Week 10:
@Seahawks
at
@49ers
with data courtesy
@nflscrapR
#NFL
#SEAvsSF
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Each team's 2020 offseason resources.
X-axis = Draft Pick Value
Y-axis = Effective Cap Space
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Every NFL team's 2021 opponents!
Each team plays teams with the same row, column, or color.
Assuming the 17th game is added, it will be against the team with the same shape.
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After Andrew Luck retired, the Colts started Jacoby Brissett in 2019, and ended up trading a conditional 1st round pick for Carson Wentz.
The Carson Wentz-led Colts are now underdogs tomorrow against a team starting Jacoby Brissett.
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Last year someone posted this to reddit and it remains the most amusing NFL division realignment proposal I've ever seen.
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Love this visualization of each team's 2020 opponents from Reddit's /u/Inkblot9
Each team plays against teams with the same row, column, or color.
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Each NFL team's 2021 offseason resources
X-axis = Combined value of 2021 draft picks
Y-axis = Effective 2021 cap space
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Just because someone's entitled to have an opinion doesn't mean their opinion is worth hearing.
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- Run
- Run
- Hope Burrow plays hero ball
It's like the Seahawks offense.
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The record vs. point differential numbers in the AFC South are hilarious to me.
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ALL NFL TEAMS' 2022 OPPONENTS
Each team plays against teams in the same row, in the same column, with the same color, or that have the same shape.
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Some sportsbook by my friend had a Super Bowl prop of "Over 2.5 players to attempt a pass +140" but it let you buy a "point" down to 1.5 players +120.
He put a bunch of money down, and to their credit, they took his bet, but then pulled that off the board.
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A friend posted this to Facebook and it made me laugh.
(Unsure where he got it, unfortunately. Sorry for no credit if it's yours.}
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Mostly I'm just amused by the organizer being an early Bitcoin adopter and going "Hey, I got these 100 extra Bitcoin, I'll throw them into a Starcraft tournament prize structure!"
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Chiefs fans if they get ahead early vs. Chiefs fans if they get behind early
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I'm not going to fault Josh Allen for not being a legal scholar, he's a football quarterback.
But also literally no.
The Supreme Court ruled 7-2 in the 1905 case Jacobson v. Massachusetts that compulsory vaccination laws are constitutional.
.
@JoshAllenQB
: “I think everybody should have that choice... to do it or not to do it. You get in this truck situation now where if you do mandate that... that’s kinda going against what our Constitution says and freedoms to kind of express yourself one what or the other...” 3/
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There is no greater indictment on the state of the Chicago Bears than the fact that their starting quarterback this week could be Nick Foles, Mitch Trubisky, or Tyler Bray but the sportsbooks don't think it matters and are happy to post their line against the Packers anyway.
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The 2001-2018 Patriots have ruined the NFL.
Every elite team is a disappointment if they're only elite for 2-3 years, and every elite quarterback is a disappointment if they only have one ring.
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Here is every NFL team's 2023 opponents!
Each team plays every team in the same row, the same column, the same same color, or the same shape.
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Analytics twitter waiting for:
"What NFL position is this?"
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Oh NOW Deshaun Watson is suddenly upset about authorities not penalizing inappropriate contact.
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Love the 25%, 50%, and 75% to make FG lines. Way better and more meaningful than the "FG TARGET LINE" which treats field goals like 100% or 0% from a given spot.
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The police caught the person who stole my car. I was sent mail by the prosecutor which offered me the opportunity to give a statement to the court on this matter. Here is what I sent.
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Net Rest Days vs. Opponents:
+10: KC
+9: TEN
+8: BUF, WAS
+7: HOU
+6: CHI, CLE
+5:
+4: NE
+3: BAL, PHI, SF
+2: ATL, LV
+1: DET, IND, LA
0: CAR, DAL, PIT, SEA
-1: ARI. NO
-2: NYJ
-4: NYG
-5: JAX
-6: MIN
-7: MIA
-8: GB, LAC, TB
-9:
-10:
-11: CIN
-12:
-13: DEN
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The Cowboys are only paying Ezekiel Elliott $1.8M/fumble this year.
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It's not your imagination, the Seahawks really do have the games with the most high-WP-changing plays. Lions are close.
And Patriots and Jets games really, truly are that boring.
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Exciting personal news!
I'm going to be contributing sports betting content this upcoming season for
@PFF
!
Really looking forward to this opportunity and getting to work with some incredibly talented folks who I admire greatly. :)
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In 2020, teams with two or more QB kneels in the 4th quarter posted a 113-0 record for a 1.000 winning percentage.
That rated higher than clubs with a 100-yard receiver (103-84-1, .554) or a 300- yard passer (71-60-1, .542).
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It's schedule release week! A reminder of each team's opponents:
Each team plays against every team in the same row, in the same column, with the same color, and of the same shape.
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Falcons either need to be in win now mode or rebuild mode. Taking Kyle Pitts over Justin Fields signals they've chosen win now. Fair enough.
But then you don't trade Julio Jones.
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If the Lions beat the Vikings today, the NFL Parity Circle will be complete.
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This blew up so please stay at home, wear a mask, and be kind to others.
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I'll be honest, I think the money is FOX's and not actually Terry Bradshaw's.
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AFC has locked in: (1) BAL (3) KC (5) CLE
Here's how the other four seeds will be determined in Week 18:
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Thinking about what had to go right for Bears to get Fields:
- SF prefers Lance
- CAR & DEN opt for mediocre veterans instead (Rodgers news matters here?)
- DET deepens tank job
- PHI trades up... but for WR
- Gettleman shows willingness to trade down
So many things went well.
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Mike Glennon was benched for Mitch Trubisky who was benched for Nick Foles who was benched for Gardner Minshew who was benched for Jake Luton who was benched for Mike Glennon.
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Cowboys Pass Rate on 1st/2nd Down:
Week 1 vs NYG: 69%
Week 2 @ WAS: 64%
Week 3 vs MIA: 53%
Week 4 @ NO: 50%
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NBA coaches now understand 2 < 3.
NFL coaches still do not understand that 3 + 3 < 7.
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The Dolphins have so much draft capital they're trying to break my plot.
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It's only Week 1.
But all four NFC West teams won today while having a top 10 offense and a top 10 defense as measured by EPA/play (with BAL/LV still outstanding).
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Even if Love turns out to be an elite quarterback, the Packers will have wasted the NFL's most valuable asset, an elite quarterback on a rookie deal.
The Favre-Rodgers transition is not a good analogy. That was before the 2011 CBA that created the rookie wage scale.
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Celebrating ten years together today with my partner Hex. I love them and they make me happy. <3
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🚨🚨 ANNOUNCEMENT! 🚨🚨
Presenting nflseedR by
@LeeSharpeNFL
and
@mrcaseb
The R package that's an open source NFL season simulator you can apply your own model to!
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The Cleveland Browns are 8-3, and have a point differential of -21.
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PFF NFL Draft Grades
A+ = ARI, DAL, CLE, DEN
A = CIN, DET, JAX, MIN, NYG
A- = BUF, MIA, PHI, TB
B+ = CHI, NYJ, SF
B = ATL, BAL, CAR, IND, NE, NO, WAS
B- = KC, PIT
C+ = HOU, TEN
C = LAR, LV
C- = LAC, SEA
D = GB
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Kudos to ESPN. They did a great job today with an analytics-focused broadcast of Ravens-Titans.
Was a great game for it as a team made a horrifying decision that easily could have cost them the game.
@minakimes
, unsurprisingly, was a particular highlight.
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The fact that Winston signed for $1.1M makes it truly horrible that the Bears traded for Foles instead of signing Winston.
Winston is:
- Better than Foles
- More likely to be healthy than Foles
- Available for cheaper
- Available without giving up draft capital
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Every 49ers team in the last 20 seasons has either:
- Not had a winning record
- Played in the NFCCG
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🚨🚨 ANNOUNCEMENT 🚨🚨
The Prediction Game is live!
Each week, enter how likely each outcome is in each NFL game. Compare your prediction accuracy to that of others over the course of the season!
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How smart is each team?
These my rough tiers, there were some teams I was close on. Tell me why my takes are bad.
Teams are ordered alphabetically within tiers, don't read anything into that.
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Humblebrags are the worst part of Twitter.
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@benbbaldwin
"Oh no, my house is on fire!"
"Don't worry, I just invented the fire extinguisher!"
"Ah, but have we considered the long term effects of fire extinguishers?"
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"Win now mode" is incompatible with being 3-8.
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538: We give Biden an 89% chance to win because even if there is a polling error in favor of Trump, Biden is still likely to win.
Results: There was a polling error in favor of Trump, but Biden is still likely to win.
People: Wow, the models are shit.
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Week 14: Raiders @ Rams
In case you wondered what a cliff looked like.
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Been struggling a lot with mental health lately. Took a walk in a park. Felt good. Find something you can do for yourself if you are too. You're not alone.
Excited for games tomorrow. :)
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I understand the reasoning of "Bills and Bengals played same number of games so it's a fair comparison as is", but the reasoning in my above tweet feels stronger to me.
Ultimately HFA isn't worth that much and nobody benefited more than the Chiefs getting the bye. So ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Your quarterback has sexually assaulted more women than are shown in this picture.
On
#InternationalWomensDay
, we're honoring the incredible leaders that power our organization
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Holy shit Patrick Mahomes!
"Aggressiveness" here comes from
@NextGenStats
. A pass is defined as aggressive if there is a defender within 1 yard of the receiver at the time of the catch or incompletion.
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There's a saying in software development that if you take your best developer and promote them to development manager, then you've lost a great developer and gained a crappy manager.
I suspect this is often what happens when OCs and DCs are promoted to HC.
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