Kpler
@Kpler
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Rea Sea attacks put 8% of bulk flows via the Suez Canal at risk
Container lines Maersk & Hapag-Lloyd suspend all voyages via the Red Sea after each had a vessel attacked last week. In total 6 ships have been targeted by Yemen’s Houthi’s in the last 5 days, a major escalation.
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#Russia
Update: Production cuts are emerging 🛢️
🇷🇺 supply mystery of 2023 unfolds, as Moscow pledges a voluntary 500kbd cut. Current output figures can be misleading, making it hard to trust any numbers.
Kpler analysts expect May production at 10.709Mbd, down 350kbd from Feb '23
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Iran's oil exports drop to 1 Mbd amid Shandong buyers' risk aversion
#Iran
's Oct. oil exports fell to 1 Mbd from an average of 1.37 Mbd (previous six months). Middle East tensions/threat of stricter enforcement of US
#sanctions
may have turned Shandong refiners more risk-averse.
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Chinese crude imports near an all-time high, but surge expected to be brief
Chinese
#crude
imports are poised for a strong rebound this month, reaching the second-highest level on record. Despite OPEC+ production cuts, imports from the Middle East remain robust.
#globaltrade
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Over 25% of grain cargo is diverting away from the Suez Canal
The
#bulkcarrier
Orion, carrying
#wheat
from France to Qingdao port in China, changed course on Dec 22. Initially heading towards
#Suez
, it turned west near Gibraltar, redirecting to Asia via the Cape of Good Hope.
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Global onshore crude inventories are higher year-to-date, but remain below 5-yr average
In the first 5 months of 2023, inventories increased by 100+ Mbbls. Despite remaining below the levels of the past 6 years, inventories have stabilised around 3.4 Bbbls for the last 4 months.
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Breaking: Kpler intel reveals Greek-owned bulker attacked in Red Sea today had Iran listed as destination, carrying corn from Brazil. Analysts suggest vessel's route unaffected despite risks from Iran-backed Houthis. Brazil remains key corn source for Iran.
Greek-owned vessel attacked in Red Sea Monday morning
A Greek-owned bulker, the Star Iris, was attacked by two missiles in the Red Sea today.
#AIS
data from
#MarineTraffic
shows the vessel, registered in the Marshall Islands, departed from Brazil on Jan 12 and is bound for Iran.
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The
#MarlinLuanda
, which was struck by Houthi off Yemen coast after 3 ship-to-ship transfers in Greece. It was loaded with 90T of Naphtha from Voge Trust, Bronx, Dale, originating Taman, Novorossiysk and was headed to Asia, ETA Feb 7.
#kpler
#redsea
#tanker
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Hi everyone!
Today marks a historic and exciting milestone for all of us: MarineTraffic and FleetMon have become part of Kpler!
Learn more by watching the video below and read the press release:
#growth
#innovation
#maritimeinnovation
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And the global picture - As of April 20th, onshore crude storage sits just below 3.5bn barrels and floating storage is at 153 mb. A combined increase of 111 mb since the end of March and increasing by the day.
#oott
#oilandgas
#kpler
#COVID19
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Onshore Chinese crude inventories dropped significantly at the end of July, falling nearly 30 Mbbls over the two weeks through 6 August. This drop coincided with a pop in floating storage and a corresponding drop in crude imports at the end of July into August, >
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The EU
#electricity
market experienced a weekend filled with unexpected twists & turns. Low demand, still 9-10% below pre-crisis levels, combined with strong solar production, created a surplus of
#energy
in most countries, pushing wholesale market prices into negative territory.
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Actually, long term worldwide floating storage is at a record low of 8.8 million barrels compared to 17.4 million barrels registered at the beginning of this year.
#Kpler
#Kplerdata
Looks like OPEC is at it again. With record amounts of Oil all over the place, including the fully loaded ships at sea, Oil prices are artificially Very High! No good and will not be accepted!
12K
13K
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Chinese
#oil
imports surge amid rocky economic times
China's refinery output averaged 15.4 Mbd in 2023 ytd through August, up by 1.2 Mbd from last year. Clean product departures rose by 260 kbd to 810 kbd YoY. Seaborne imports hit a record high of 11.6 Mbd over the last 4 months
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The US is now firmly at the top table of VLCC demand
US
#crude
export ton-miles on VLCCs hit 125 Bn in April, just 24 Bn shy of the total from Saudi Arabia. US VLCC exports are less than half that of Saudi Arabia, but more long-haul voyages to Asia saw ton-miles rise 126% y/y.
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#OPEC
+ has cut production by around 8.6 mbd in May against its reference baseline according to our Compliance Indicator. This suggests total compliance of 89% to the deal. There are another 1.1 mbd to go in order to reach 100% compliance.
#oott
#oilandgas
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Exciting news at Kpler
We've surpassed $100M in annual recurring revenue (ARR) in record time while being bootstrapped. Proud of our achievement & our commitment to global trade transparency & connectivity. Thanks to our team, customers, partners & investors. Stay tuned for more.
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No signs of demand uptick in Europe as TTF declines below $9/MMBtu
#kpler
#kplerinsight
#thermalfuel
#globaltrade
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11
31
Future of Russian Oil: 5 Key Trends
#Russia
's oil industry transitions from chaos to relative stability in 2023, with India emerging as the largest seaborne buyer. Let's explore the industry's outlook for the next 2-3 years, from refinery upgrades to a shadow tanker fleet.👇
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We are delighted to announce that we have acquired ClipperData. Through this acquisition, we are strengthening our position as the leading provider of data & analytics to the global commodity sector. Read the press release:
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In 2023,
#Russia
dramatically increased
#diesel
exports to
#Brazil
, securing a 52% market share with 130 kbd. This move cut US diesel imports from 145 kbd in 2022 to 63 kbd, a trend expected to continue without changes in US/EU
#sanctions
.
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12
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US fuel oil inventories draw for 7 consecutive weeks below 5-year average
-Coking capacities return, boosting draw.
-Unusual NW Europe fuel movement lowers US stocks.
-NWE imports rise (20 -> 60 kbd).
-US
#fueloil
production fluctuates (150 -> 240 kbd). Demand remains strong.
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Russian CPP exports surge, endangering Latin America's refining stability
🔁Shifting trade patterns driven by US fuel inventory dynamics reveal rising Russian exports to 🇧🇷 and potential buyers like 🇦🇷 and 🇺🇾. US gasoil market faces challenges as Russia curtails exports.
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Cushing spare capacity now at less than 20 mb - Total non-SPR available capacity in the US estimated at 130 mb (assuming a max 90% of shell capacity) - PADD 3 is the region where the most available capacity is seen with a potential 69 mb yet to fill.
#oott
#oilandgas
#kpler
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VLCC rates bottom out as Atlantic availability tightens
VLCC rates rose from multi-month lows after a decline in vessel availability in the US Gulf triggered a resumption in ballasters heading to the region. Rates are likely to remain rangebound through the summer, however.
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Heatwaves in parts of Asia boost power demand but regional LNG prices still bearish
▪️ Demand: Weekly EU LNG imports down with maintenance and some cargoes diverted away from Europe; China’s thermal
#coal
stockpiles show signs of peaking as imports fall and consumption jumps
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Oil tankers carrying enough crude to satisfy 20% of the world’s consumption are gathered off California’s coast with nowhere to go via
@markets
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12
25
Record high crude imports have come at a cost for vessels trying to discharge into
#China
. As import volumes increased through May, we saw an increase in the number of days vessels spent waiting due to congestion and then become floating storage outside of Chinese ports.
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Renewables and the effect on gas-to-power demand
Residual demand, total demand minus renewables, correlates strongly with gas-to-power generation in our analysis of data from Jan 2020 to Oct 2023 across 7 European countries, emphasising its importance for gas balance modelling.
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US crude intake liable to rebound rather quickly in the coming weeks
The 4-weeks decline in US
#crude
(by 600 kbd) may turn out to be short lived, as most of the recent outages are resolved by now. US refining capacity has fallen by over 1 Mbd, in the Jan 2020 to Jan 2022 period
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Suez Canal tanker transits down 14% since first diversions
Recent stats highlight a 14% drop in transits since diversions. Post-Dec 15th, numbers hit a low of 15/day by month-end—though slightly rising, it's still below pre-diversion levels.
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Combining local intelligence, real-time AIS feeds as well as commercial satellite images, Kpler has been able to identify and localize more than 10 Iranian crude carriers that have been off the radar for several days.
#iran
#sanctions
#oilgas
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Jet fuel is the most exposed with over 30% of seaborne jet fuel shipped via the Suez Canal. Naphtha, diesel, grains and oilseeds and chemical products are also at risk at over 10%.
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We are pleased to announce our partnership with
@MeesEnergy
, a veritable institution of the O&G industry in MENA. Part of Kpler’s mission is to support the best research, analysis, and news firms within the commodities industry, and this partnership is a leap forward for us.
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China has taken its second cargo of Iranian oil since US waivers expired. The HORSE, a VLCC owned by Iran's NITC, arrived at Sinopec's Tianjin refinery over the weekend and is currently busy discharging 2 mb of crude,
@Kpler
data shows.
#OOTT
#oilandgas
#sanctions
0
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Coal market update: Newcastle thermal price jumps
Winter in Northern Europe and Northeast Asia shifted the thermal coal market. China's stockpiles and production compete with imports, while Indian stocks are low.
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Introducing our sleek new look
Clean, modern, and powerful – designed with YOU in mind.
2023 was a game-changer for us, and we're thrilled to unveil our fresh identity, with a revamped logo that reflects our evolution and core values.
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#SaudiArabia
: draw of 7 Mb confirmed in on-shore crude storage between Sept. 4th and 16th. Largely attributable to the recent events. The draw comes from the following terminals: Ras Tanura (-2.24mb) / Yanbu (-3.6mb) / Muajjiz (-1.1mb) / Jeddah (-0.2mb).
#OOTT
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VLCCs target Atlantic as Saudi Arabia extends cuts
Saudi Arabia extends 1 Mbd production cuts, keeping the regional balance at a three-year low. Declining exports push VLCCs to the Atlantic but weak Asian demand limits inter-regional trade.
#kpler
#globaltrade
#VLCC
#crude
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After many months of hard work, we are pleased to announce the official launch of our latest platform! With over 8,500 vessels, 1,300 installations, and billions of tons of annual trade flows, Kpler Coal is the next chapter of our seaborne energy commodity story.
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Kpler data shows US exports of gasoline and diesel to Mexico and Brazil, the region's largest buyers, fell to 3.66 million barrels and 5.16 million barrels, respectively, in May, from 19.78 million and 12.03 million barrels in January.
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6
19
Gas prices slide lower amid high EU gas stocks, milder near-term temperature outlook
◾Demand: Northern hemisphere temperatures to normalize after cold spell; Asian coal demand remains robust, Europe shows signs of firming
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Excited to welcome Matt Wright who joins us as a Senior Freight Analyst. With previous experience at SSY and
@ArgusMedia
, Matt will be the analyst of Kpler for all freight-related topics. Welcome, Matt!
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Significant developments are unfolding in the African oil industry as Ivory Coast's Baleine field achieves its first crude oil export less than two years after discovery.
Takeaways:
-The field's production is expected to reshape the nation's oil landscape, boosting supply level>
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5
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Brazil battles congestion ahead of anticipated record crop production
#Brazil
faces unprecedented
#portcongestion
, set to worsen with the anticipated record soybean harvest in January 2024, reaching uncharted levels.
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#crude
inventories in
#OECD
countries are approaching the bottom of the 45mbbls range they have fluctuated within over the last 18 months. Inventories in non-OECD countries have remained at higher levels, albeit with a slight draw down over the last month.
#OOTT
#oilandgas
1
9
17
Nigeria boosts OPEC Africa crude exports to multi-year high
Nigeria leads increased OPEC Africa exports to nearly 5 Mbd (end of October), supported by Angola, Algeria, and Gabon, marking the highest level since January 2020. Improved Nigerian security cuts oil theft/drives rise.
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7
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US dependence on Latin American crude barrels is growing
Venezuela's production rebound led to the highest US-bound oil flows since January 2019, reaching 170 kbd in May. US imports of Latin American
#crude
rose by over 20% m/m, nearing a one-year high at 1.6 Mbd.
#globaltrade
1
15
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Kpler insight
Demand: LNG imports down due to weather outlook in Europe & Asia.
#Thermalcoal
imports retreated, but rebound expected.
Supply: Sabine Pass maintenance over, boosting US
#LNG
exports.
Prices: TTF prices volatile with Norwegian gas maintenance. Spike in coal prices.
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China's diesel exports to rise in coming weeks
Projections indicate an average range of 370-500 kbd (conservative to high-end estimate) until July's end, exceeding the 185 kbd quarterly average. This aligns with our estimates of a larger-than-usual Chinese diesel surplus ahead.
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2
17
China's CNOOC re-exports first LNG cargo from Ningbo LNG receiving terminal
China previously re-exported
#LNG
cargoes only from the Yangpu LNG terminal In Hainan, which has shipped 9 cargoes this year. The Kool Frost tanker left Ningbo on 11 September, carrying a 155,200m3 cargo
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4
16
Indian buyers reduced U.S. crude purchases and loaded up on Iranian oil ahead of the restart of U.S. sanctions next month and as the WTI-Brent differential narrowed, according to traders and shipping intelligence firm Kpler.
0
6
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Indian imports of Russian crude oil have averaged 1.39 Mbd in December, down 15% compared to November, marking the lowest net total since January 2023.
◾Despite one-third of its oil imports passing through Red Sea, India purchased its regular volume of Urals, around 1.1 Mbd.
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6
16
Iranian export growth expands the dark fleet
Increased Iranian and Venezuelan
#crude
exports to the US had mixed effects on the dark fleet. Overall, the vessel count increased. The number of ships loading sanctioned Iranian and Venezuelan crude grew by 3%/capacity up by 13%.
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Venezuela: what effects are the sanctions having and who is buying its oil now? Get more insight in reading
@JackAGoodman
's last article
#DataScience
#IPweek
#kpler
#venezuela
#bbcnews
#sanctions
0
5
15
On September 5th, Kpler acquired COR-e, a company specialised in fundamental data pre-processing and price forecasting for the European power markets. This acquisition is the very first chapter of Kpler’s expansion into power markets.
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How will Saudi Arabia's production cut impact crude supply in the coming months? What drives Russian production during refinery maintenance?
Join us in Geneva on June 21 for insights on oil markets at the Kpler Market Insight Briefing.
Save your spot:
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Ukraine war reshapes EU oil trade: US & North Sea dominate, Russian reliance drops, Guyana emerges
In 9 months, 🇬🇾 delivered nearly 200 kbd to the EU, over half of the 374 kbd the country exported in total over the same period.
Follow us for the latest insights.
#KplerInsight
1
9
15
#Russia
's temporary ban on
#diesel
and gasoline exports aim to cool down skyrocketing domestic fuel prices. Kpler expects physical impact to last until mid-October, with product pipelines delivering ULSD to Baltic and Black Sea ports halted this morning.
#kpler
#globaltrade
1
6
15
Amid January's intense cold spell, accurately forecasting power demand became a real challenge, especially given the new dynamics of demand destruction. In this scenario, Kpler demand forecast was tested &found that it reduced forecasting error by 25% compared to public forecasts
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1
14
Kpler actively tracks the developments in the Global oil market which is clearly oversupplied as negative demand impacts from
#covid19
flow westwards. Onshore oil inventories: 3,400 mb. Floating storage: 110 mb.
#oott
#oilandgas
0
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13
Japanese refiners struggle amid disruptions
Challenges persist for Japanese refineries. Close to record-low refinery runs in Japan as unplanned shutdowns &maintenance procedures persist. 1Mbd capacity currently offline, 30% of total.
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