Koleman Strumpf
@KolemanStrumpf
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Econ prof @WakeForest. Research interests = prediction mkts, digitization, public econ, media mkts, illicit mkts, .... co-organizer #VIDEseminar @digitaleconorg
Joined April 2022
Two favorite holiday songs: - Father Christmas (Kinks): https://t.co/BqE7MqXDF4 - Hannukah Song (A Sandler): https://t.co/UqcLGmwiZ3 Bonus points if you know at least one factual mistake in Sandler's song (I think there are at least three)
open.spotify.com
Adam Sandler · What the Hell Happened to Me? · Song · 1996
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Stealth drop of new Spielberg movie which has CIOTTK vibe. Great way to build buzz (remember Cloverfield). HSX predicts mid-sized blockbuster https://t.co/6Ms5NW4BmY
https://t.co/kePBk9Y5OS
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@RepRitchie @ZohranKMamdani I think this will be telling both for the direction of the Dem party and also may suggest topics to be on the look out in the Fall 2026 generals [fin]
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@RepRitchie @ZohranKMamdani Opponents include a current and former state rep (who ran for mayor) and community organizers. A common theme: the challengers are associated with Mamdani and/or DSA, and mostly very opposed to Israel. Illiquid PMs on it now, https://t.co/gzf0fUT9V9
https://t.co/zoYQm5ZLQ5 [3/n]
kalshi.com
Track what Kalshi's markets predict for "Who will be the Democratic nominee for NY-15?", or trade it yourself.
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@RepRitchie Rep. Torres is facing a wide range of primary opponents from the left, who are seeking to raft on @ZohranKMamdani's election to NYC mayor (the district is in the Bronx voted 74% for Harris in the 2024 presidential election) [2/n]
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One of the more interesting 2026 House races is NY-15, often listed as the poorest in the US. @RepRitchie is the incumbent: he is a progressive with an amazing life-story, and surprising positions on topics ranging from Israel to prediction markets. [1/n]
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Nice NYT piece on Netflix-WB merger from @brooksbarnesNYT. The list of opponents is large, though little discussion of consumer harm. great time to be in econ litigation consulting! https://t.co/YL7s7NGOKz
nytimes.com
Much of the entertainment capital fears that Netflix’s deal will lead to more job losses and theater closings and fewer boundary-pushing movies.
@netflix + @warnerbros merger. Netflix: defensive play to block deep pocketed Ellison-Paramount from bulking up. WB: also-run in streaming (Tubi almost as many viewers as Max). Whether this will get through antitrust (US and Europe) and actor/director protests we will see. [1/2]
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Also big break-up fees on both sides. prediction markets were interesting ( https://t.co/ko8J30lvWQ) need one on approval. more background below, https://t.co/KUcVeDWG4S [2/2]
nytimes.com
The deal to acquire the Hollywood behemoth’s television and film studios as well as HBO Max will bulk up the world’s biggest paid streaming service.
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Seminar tomorrow!
Please join us for the next VIDE seminar (@digitaleconorg) on 3 December at 11AM ET. Jeff Prince (Indiana University Kelley) will present "How Have Smartphones Changed the Structure of Online Content Consumption?" To get a link to the talk and the paper,
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@shayne_coplan @Polymarket Oh and of course finally get to see @Domahhhh. Glad they mentioned his great pick in the papal selection market which I mentioned before https://t.co/HbdcoFIXlO [2/2]
File under those that cannot do teach Me: Write threads before (and after) about likely inefficiency of papal market ( https://t.co/ffZ8NqGhn8…)
@Domahhhh: does a more detailed analysis and makes six figures (below). Wowzers!
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60 minutes on @shayne_coplan / @Polymarket. Interesting as much for what was omitted as what was covered. Not mentioned: - any other prediction markets - critics of these markets (a headline but no one from Better Markets) - sports markets https://t.co/ZjpUKirulM [1/2]
cbsnews.com
Shayne Coplan started building Polymarket five years ago when he was 21. On his prediction market, now valued at $9 billion, users can put up money and bet against each other on nearly anything.
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@shayne_coplan @Polymarket Or remember Gavin Belson's from @SiliconHBO: What those in dying business sectors call failure, we in tech know to be pre-greatness [2/2]
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Forbes article on @shayne_coplan / @Polymarket reminds me of the ability of successful founders to move on from initial failures. As I age and get to know a few such folks, this is the defining characteristic (which I know I do not have alas) [1/2] https://t.co/a5NdpcySea
forbes.com
One year ago, the FBI raided Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan’s apartment. Now, the college dropout is one of the youngest billionaires on Earth.
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Curious to see this. Do not expect many hard questions (60 Minutes is mainly a softball factory these days). But it will be nice to see @shayne_coplan getting some air time @Polymarket | Sunday on 60 Minutes https://t.co/rPoEqdGyqC via @YouTube
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Anyone fluent in Swedish (or know a good translator of audio)? I did a long form interview with Dagens industri, a Scandinavian business newspaper, on prediction markets. Well I am in English but the questions got translated to Swedish. https://t.co/CKXnOuwGJ1
open.spotify.com
Den nya ekonomin · Episode
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Is this going to cause issues going forward? Note Kalshi seems to have been staying away from these, sticking to topics like Rotten Tomato scores [3/fin] https://t.co/vBqT8G5Pla
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Recently Polymarket has added real money futures on at least two movie's box office, https://t.co/WXzOpWMiv5
https://t.co/FrxH5Q4u50 [2/n]
polymarket.com
Real-time odds on ""Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office" as of December 14, 2025.
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Question for legal folks on prediction markets: My understanding is that Dodd-Frank makes real money movies box office futures illegal, https://t.co/jw6IbZ4eYa [1/n]
deadline.com
UPDATE: The MPAA interim CEO/president Bob Pisano weighed in this morning about the late night congressional vote to leave a ban on box office futures in the financial reform bill. Said Pisano: “We...
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