Shelter is clearly putting a lot of downward pressure on CPI . CPI services ex-shelter is running at +3.75% annualized over the past 3 months

Some #tariff impacts creeping into CPI . core goods prices jumped by 0.32% in June; largest increase since February 2023

Supercore CPI +3.02% y/y in June . up from +2.86% in May

U.S. CPI (m/m) in . February: +0.216%.March: -0.050%.April: +0.221%.May: +0.081%.June: +0.287%.

3-month annualized change in core CPI in June: +2.41%

"Imports from China are already coming in under an effective 46% duty, quadruple the 2024 average.". @Gavekal

2y Treasury yield keeps climbing

In the first half of the year, there was a tight link between the S&P 500 (white) and the Global Trade Policy Uncertainty index (blue), but that has broken down lately

The Industrials sector's forward P/E remains higher than at any point from 1999-2001 . but still not yet back to the 2020-2021 high

"'Does it affect copper, does it affect brass, does it affect bronze? Does it affect everything with copper in it, or is it just pure copper or copper cathodes? Really nothing is defined,'"

"Made from charcoal-roasted green tea leaves, hojicha has nutty, earthy, caramelised notes that go well with milk. It also has all of matcha’s health benefits (antioxidants, soothing L-theanine) but with a fraction of the caffein".cc @TheStalwart .

RT @maximusupinNYc: Lightning striking One World Trade during tonight’s flash flood warning #NYC

Me on the runway at Kennedy as this massive storm hits NYC

Upside of 11-hour flight delay: lots of charts. Downside 11-hour flight delay: lots of charts.

17% tariff on tomatoes coming from Mexico … Mexican tomatoes are ~86% of our tomato imports

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index still hasn’t made it back to its all-time high last summer . (Past performance is no guarantee of future results)

287 S&P 500 stocks closed higher today (near highs of the day)

RT @ernietedeschi: @The_Budget_Lab Consumers face an overall average effective tariff rate of 20.6%, a 18.2pp increase from 2024 & the high….

RT @MerriamWebster: The #WordOfTheDay is ‘nuance.’.