The Mortality Working Group has today published our Research Paper covering excess mortality in 2020-2023. https://t.co/l1zznsNAbW

Happy international actuaries day to all my actuarial friends!

A fantastic data visualisation by @CaseyBriggs showing how the decline in national support for the major parties translates into declining support seat by seat, increasing the number of contest involving Independents and minor parties.

So #covidinquiry commissioned serious research by academics at Oxford Uni into vaccine safety. Concludes “best evidence” suggests jabs saved millions of lives. And any suggestion they caused excess mortality is “low quality and has been in many cases misinterpreted.” A short 🧵

The Centre for Population released their 2024 population statement just before Christmas. Includes projections of births, deaths and net migration that feed into Govt decision making. https://t.co/5sqBS15D4o

Will Sydney airport on Boxing Day be …

Covid prevalence in NSW has increased this week, but indicators suggest it is still substantially less than at the same time last year. With Christmas now less than a week away, I’m hopeful this means the peak of this wave will also be much lower than last year.

Vaccines and "placebo control" Placebo-controlled trials compare a vaccine to an inactive substance (placebo). This helps measure how effective the vaccine is. In the case of vaccines, often, the placebo is not "saline", but rather a previous vaccine or vaccine solution. /1

Total deaths from non-COVID-19 respiratory causes were significantly (8%) higher than predicted. Deaths from all other causes were in line with the prediction, which contrasts with 2021-2023 where deaths for many of these causes were significantly higher than anticipated. Ends/

In the 8mths to August, rather than lower levels of mortality than in 2023, Covid-19 has led to about the same level of deaths as 2023 in aggregate, with the winter wave being significantly worse than projected, lasting longer and peaking at higher levels than predicted.

Actual weekly deaths are mostly within the 95% confidence interval. However, most weeks in June, July and August were above the prediction and this is significant in aggregate for the eight-month period.

Excellent summary, noting the baseline is no longer “assuming no pandemic”.

The Australian actuaries Mortality Working Group has released excess mortality estimates for the first eight months of 2024. https://t.co/2T6VhW5xyO

Four weeks since my post saying it looked like Covid was about to take off again in NSW. Latest NSW Health report shows little action. A very benign wave compared with this time last year. https://t.co/HfpJhChpzS

All those indicators that looked like they were increasing last week are mostly unchanged this week.

Whooping cough activity is still high. Pregnant women and people in close contact with babies should get vaccinated to protect babies from severe disease. Full report: https://t.co/31tSLFlbL8 More info: https://t.co/97NhdvMyzS

Social media at its best. https://t.co/KBlcVsrzFD

Philippe has some intel on JN.1 availability. Can anyone concur?

ATAGI minutes for Oct have been released, stating “ATAGI recommends using the latest COVID-19 vaccine formulation”. This was before the Pfizer JN.1 vax had received TGA approval, but presumably means it is “ATAGI approved” as soon as supply is available (expected “late 2024”)

After four week of not reporting, here is Victoria. Wasn’t such a big limb…

The Australia-wide aged care stats are also showing an increase in recent weeks. Ends/