Karen Cutter
@KarenCutter4
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Actuary. Australian. Receives no payment for Covid analysis. All views my own.
Sydney, New South Wales
Joined August 2020
The Mortality Working Group has today published our Research Paper covering excess mortality in 2020-2023.
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RT @AntonyGreenElec: A fantastic data visualisation by @CaseyBriggs showing how the decline in national support for the major parties trans….
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RT @jim_reed: So #covidinquiry commissioned serious research by academics at Oxford Uni into vaccine safety. Concludes “best evidence” sugg….
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The Centre for Population released their 2024 population statement just before Christmas. Includes projections of births, deaths and net migration that feed into Govt decision making.
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Covid prevalence in NSW has increased this week, but indicators suggest it is still substantially less than at the same time last year. With Christmas now less than a week away, I’m hopeful this means the peak of this wave will also be much lower than last year.
COVID-19 has increased to a moderate level of activity. Whooping cough activity is still high, but decreasing. Stay up to date with vaccinations and stay at home if you are sick to protect yourself and your loved ones. Full report:
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RT @tylerblack32: Vaccines and "placebo control". Placebo-controlled trials compare a vaccine to an inactive substance (placebo). This help….
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Total deaths from non-COVID-19 respiratory causes were significantly (8%) higher than predicted. Deaths from all other causes were in line with the prediction, which contrasts with 2021-2023 where deaths for many of these causes were significantly higher than anticipated. Ends/
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In the 8mths to August, rather than lower levels of mortality than in 2023, Covid-19 has led to about the same level of deaths as 2023 in aggregate, with the winter wave being significantly worse than projected, lasting longer and peaking at higher levels than predicted.
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Actual weekly deaths are mostly within the 95% confidence interval. However, most weeks in June, July and August were above the prediction and this is significant in aggregate for the eight-month period.
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Excellent summary, noting the baseline is no longer “assuming no pandemic”.
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The Australian actuaries Mortality Working Group has released excess mortality estimates for the first eight months of 2024.
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Four weeks since my post saying it looked like Covid was about to take off again in NSW. Latest NSW Health report shows little action. A very benign wave compared with this time last year.
Going out on a limb here: I think we are at the start of a new Covid wave. Stats from todays NSW Health report:.
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All those indicators that looked like they were increasing last week are mostly unchanged this week.
Whooping cough activity is still high. Pregnant women and people in close contact with babies should get vaccinated to protect babies from severe disease. Full report:.More info:.
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RT @NSWHealth: Whooping cough activity is still high. Pregnant women and people in close contact with babies should get vaccinated to prote….
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Social media at its best.
Philippe has some intel on JN.1 availability. Can anyone concur?.
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Philippe has some intel on JN.1 availability. Can anyone concur?.
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ATAGI minutes for Oct have been released, stating “ATAGI recommends using the latest COVID-19 vaccine formulation”. This was before the Pfizer JN.1 vax had received TGA approval, but presumably means it is “ATAGI approved” as soon as supply is available (expected “late 2024”)
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After four week of not reporting, here is Victoria. Wasn’t such a big limb…
Going out on a limb here: I think we are at the start of a new Covid wave. Stats from todays NSW Health report:.
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The Australia-wide aged care stats are also showing an increase in recent weeks. Ends/
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