Kairos
@KairosPraxis
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Just a laughing stock
Another brick in the wall st.
Joined February 2025
I'm surprised to still see the narrative that "AI is having no impact on the real economy" or that "AI demand is fleeting". Now that earnings season has pretty much wrapped up, here is a 🧵on how different firms are using AI to enhance operations
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$BESI trading at €146 at P/E of 69. Their long-term guidance is €1.5-1.9B revenue (3x current levels) at 40-55% operating margins. Even assuming they hit the high end AND maintain a 30x terminal multiple, you're looking at ~13% CAGR over 5 years. Better to wait?
Market finally waking up to how critical HBM is for the datacenter buildout. DRAM is commoditized (Samsung/Hynix/$MU), but HBM5 needs hybrid bonding where $BESI holds a monopoly (D2W). Revenue is projected to grow from €36M in 2023 to €476M by 2026. All roads lead to $BESI
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@lefttailguy any thoughts on what AI will do to software pricing and gross margins?
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I can't tell if this is a datacenter networking tweet or a nutrition tweet anymore. Permanent brainrot
“I think fiber will be the next protein. Consumers are starting to understand that fiber is a benefit that they need.” -Pepsi CEO Ramon Laguarta
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As a rule, I'm not a fan of companies arguing that they deserve to trade at a higher multiple based on where their peers are at. For what it's worth, $IQ.V is a solid company operating in the (highly competitive) iot space. Their market cap is only 14M so perhaps room to grow?
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Third chapter of the $CSU.TO trilogy is already out. Topic: How to build a DCF for serial acquirers using ROIC and reinvestment rate as input assumptions (free to read). Both Models for CSU and spin-offs are available for download (subscribers). đź”— Find it in my profile.
The third (and final) chapter of the $CSU.TO $CSU trilogy is on the way. We’ll break down how to build a DCF for serial acquirers like CSU, driven by ROIC and reinvestment rates instead of the usual revenue/margin assumptions. Also coming in October: A Deep Dive Brief on $ISRG
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Sierra's Bret Taylor on outcome-based pricing and why it aligns incentives. I really like this model of charging the business only if the case is solved.
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Will AI end software's attractive zero marginal cost model? - Licensed software, zero added cost/customer - Cloud-based saas, *some costs*, amortized across users - AI-driven, compute cost proportional to usage This is why everyone is excited about outcome-based pricing.
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I can't tell if this is a datacenter networking tweet or a nutrition tweet anymore. Permanent brainrot
“I think fiber will be the next protein. Consumers are starting to understand that fiber is a benefit that they need.” -Pepsi CEO Ramon Laguarta
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$BESI trading at €146 at P/E of 69. Their long-term guidance is €1.5-1.9B revenue (3x current levels) at 40-55% operating margins. Even assuming they hit the high end AND maintain a 30x terminal multiple, you're looking at ~13% CAGR over 5 years. Better to wait?
Market finally waking up to how critical HBM is for the datacenter buildout. DRAM is commoditized (Samsung/Hynix/$MU), but HBM5 needs hybrid bonding where $BESI holds a monopoly (D2W). Revenue is projected to grow from €36M in 2023 to €476M by 2026. All roads lead to $BESI
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Chat, is this true
I'm starting to get the hype now 8x forward FCF for 20%+ top-line growth?! $FOUR
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There's nothing inherently virtuous about investing in boring compounders. If you live till 90 eating junk food and smoking cigars, more power to you.
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Monday is another quality stock whose stock is flat over a 4-year time frame. It is once again back to the price it was trading at when I revisited the investment case after the -38% single-day price drop. You can find that post on my blog. Or you start with my Deep Dive,
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🚀 New Episode is Live! Episode 19: A deep dive into $TYL Tyler Technologies is the largest U.S. provider of software and services for the public sector — powering courts, schools, police departments and local governments. With high switching costs and recurring revenue, $TYL
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Chasing hot stocks can be futile but that doesn't mean you should bury your head in the sand just to be contrarian. One thing I've learned this year: if there are multi-year secular trends (AI, Defense, Space), it's good to lean into quality names riding those trends.
The scariest thing about investing during a bull market is that a single stock is all that stands between you and a bad year.
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If this is true, then I expect to see at least one of the hyperscalers announce some sort of partnership with AtkinsRealis $ATRL. They happen to be the only firm in North America capable of building (Ontario) or managing (Poland) SMRs.
Reading the interview of Altman on Stratechery, I think OAI's next move in the coming months will be to announce that they intend to build nuclear SMRs for themselves, and that is how they are going to get the GWs of energy for their direct chip deals. From the interview, it was
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If this is true, then I expect to see at least one of the hyperscalers announce some sort of partnership with AtkinsRealis $ATRL. They happen to be the only firm in North America capable of building (Ontario) or managing (Poland) SMRs.
Reading the interview of Altman on Stratechery, I think OAI's next move in the coming months will be to announce that they intend to build nuclear SMRs for themselves, and that is how they are going to get the GWs of energy for their direct chip deals. From the interview, it was
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$WISE also benefitted from a period of high interest rates, which enabled it to collect interest on cash balances and build it out its infrastructure. Its competitors may not be so lucky if we move to a low/medium-interest regime.
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Most people have heard of the "Scaled economies shared" model by Sleep & Zakaria. @ToddWenning posted a nice write-up highlighting how the best exemplar of this business model today is $WISE. One key difference imo: Unlike $COST, $WISE operates in a very competitive space.
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