Big news - been a blast running this with @ThePME!

Tired - laddering backup RB rushing yards.Wired - laddering Joey Chestnut hot dogs

How disruptive will AI be to the American job market in 5 years?.

RT @davehill77: I went in search of the best fantasy football player in the world for @RollingStone. I found @JustinHerzig. .

RT @TheDegenerate75: I’m sorry to share that James passed on Sunday, May 18, 2025. If you’ve been around the DFS world for any length of t….

Cashing out is a decision. Not cashing out is a decision. Each has an opportunity cost. Inaction is an action. Choose wisely.

So it’s helpful to approach each decision consistently with the same question: Would you willingly bet (cash-out amount) to win (total payout) today if you had that much sitting in your balance?.

So we avoid creating tickets where the cash out decision is avoidable. But not all cash out options are parlays. Sometimes they are futures, in-game options, awards markets, etc. and there’s not always an obvious option for hedging on the fly.

Avoid walking into a lucrative cash out option by simply shortening your parlay to not include the late game. The final payout of your winning 15-leg parlay will be stronger than the cash out option of your 16-leg parlay.

This is an easy enough predictable problem to avoid. Try to think through the sequence of your bet. Play out when the cash out button might appear. With the exception of mild line movement - you can project this all out.

But all this brings up the question “how do you avoid betting into a market that you know will be negatively impacted by a cash out premium?” We see this every week in the NFL. Someone goes 15/15 through Sunday on their 16-leg parlay. Do they let it all ride on MNF or cash out?!.

So maybe I could have squeezed a few more bucks of equity out but I’m okay to accept the convenience of handling it all onsite (on a trusted platform).

So then the question becomes - did I extract max value and explore all options? Frankly, not really. I know of a few exchanges that might buy this ticket from me. There are a few creative ways I could have approached a hedge - but involves tying up even more money.

It’s not the type of bet I would normally make and I’ve succeeded in capturing the upside that I thought was reflected in the mispriced line when I first bet it before the season started. Not to mention there are some sporting reasons I’m not inclined to keep pressing.

This is where you - the bettor - know best. And in fact - it’s not a bet I want to make. Even if I’m getting it in good to ride it out. I don’t want to invest $1664 (the new value of my equity) on an even money bet on a future that will take 6 more months to pay out.

The odds say I should definitely be willing to wager $1664 to win $1636 (effectively laying -102). He is priced at -200 to pull it off today. Thats value. But is that a bet I actually want to make?

Let’s use this example. Would I today wager $1,664 for F1 leader Oscar Piastri to win 10+ races to win $1,636 for a total payout of $3,300?

It all comes down to one simple question - would you willingly bet (cash-out amount) to win (total payout) today if you had that much sitting in your balance? . If no, then you should victoriously march to the pay window as you click the cash out button!.

The cash out button is OFTEN the wrong play but not ALWAYS. A simple mental model for determine when to pull the trigger

In a perfect sport, the better team wins.

When you close your eyes and think about Thursday Night Football - who are the 2 teams playing?. .