Julia Fonseca
@JuliaAFonseca
Followers
706
Following
290
Media
3
Statuses
60
Assistant Prof of Finance at UIUC @giesbusiness
Joined February 2010
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
Assange
• 1339621 Tweets
Kenya
• 1146943 Tweets
INCEPTIO CONCEPT PHOTO
• 413711 Tweets
Davido
• 313943 Tweets
#TYPE_1
• 251413 Tweets
KIM TAEHYUNG
• 107490 Tweets
シグウィン
• 85610 Tweets
Airtel
• 76057 Tweets
西野カナ
• 74848 Tweets
らんま新作
• 62189 Tweets
Austria
• 55081 Tweets
CGPJ
• 52521 Tweets
Rafa Silva
• 50178 Tweets
Alondra
• 45997 Tweets
#FRAPOL
• 38018 Tweets
Scenery
• 31803 Tweets
3RACHA ATE TEASERS
• 31171 Tweets
FOREVER MV TEASER
• 28190 Tweets
Leader of Opposition
• 25672 Tweets
Barcola
• 20597 Tweets
Dembele
• 19655 Tweets
Başın
• 18576 Tweets
vmin
• 17847 Tweets
シャンプー
• 12428 Tweets
هولندا
• 12017 Tweets
#NEDAUT
• 11829 Tweets
오스왈드
• 10422 Tweets
The average mortgage borrower has locked in a rate that is well below current rates.
@luliu_fin
and I show that this locks homeowners into their homes, making them less likely to move. The White House is proposing a new tax credit to try to unlock the lock-in. A quick thread:
4
16
53
@luliu_fin
and I updated our mortgage lock-in paper to show that a 1 p.p. decline in the difference between mortgage rates locked in at origination and current rates reduces moving by 16% between 2022-2024, compared to 9% between 2010-2024.
1
8
45
Had a great time talking to the folks at NPR’s
@theindicator
about mortgage lock in and my work with
@luliu_fin
. In 10 min, we touch on why mortgage lock in is so important, what
@luliu_fin
and I find, and the policy implications and trade offs:
0
8
28
@AtifRMian
Really cool video! There's actually work using deep learning to solve macro and finance models:
0
6
23
First-time homebuyers are facing 3 related challenges: high mortgage rates, high house prices, and low inventory. How can policymakers help?
@luliu_fin
and I wrote our thoughts on this for MarketWatch, informed by our work on mortgage lock-in.
1
4
19
Come work with
@luliu_fin
and me on exciting and policy-relevant topics in household finance!
@JuliaAFonseca
and I have an exciting new pre-doc opportunity to work with us on mortgage, housing and labor markets, which will involve both empirical and structural work, and tackling public policy questions! Please share.
@econ_ra
#EconTwitter
1
17
33
0
3
10
@nomadj1s
@agoodmanbacon
@leah_boustan
@Claudia_Sahm
@aaronsojourner
@klejnot
Thank you all for doing this. Really helpful and encouraging!
0
2
7
First, 80-90% of sales are of existing homes, and both the buyer and the seller typically have mortgages. For the owner of a starter home to sell, they will have to find another home to buy. If the price of this home is above the median, its seller isn't eligible for the credit.
1
0
5
@HannoLustig
@degryse_hans
That’s right! Mortgages in the US are generally not portable and only FHA, USDA, and VA mortgages are assumable.
0
0
2
But that leads us to the second reason: the tax credit isn't very large relative to how much low mortgage rates are worth to borrowers.
@luliu_fin
and I estimate that the average borrower would need $50k to compensate them for giving up the rate that they've locked in.
1
0
4
Freddie Mac also estimated this dollar value and put it at $66k, similar to our estimate. The maximum tax credit of $10k is small relative to this amount, so it might not be enough to incentivize even one seller to sell, let alone two.
1
0
4
We also have new results on small business entry and exit, types of moves (moving to better school districts vs. better employment opportunities), and a placebo check for outright owners and renters.
1
0
3
This proposal would give sellers of starter homes, defined as those below the median home price in the county, up to $10k. It's unclear how effective this would be at unlocking mortgage lock-in for two key reasons.
1
0
3
@EmilyNix100
That’s a great question! We didn’t quite get to that, but Toni did share some insights on positioning papers which are somewhat related to this and I found really helpful.
0
0
3
Link to the White House Fact sheet:
Link to our paper:
Link to Freddie Mac estimate:
0
1
3
So even if the tax credit unlocks owners of starter homes, these owners will need to buy other homes, the owners of which would likely still be locked in. Maybe the owner of the starter home splits the tax credit with the owner of the larger home through a higher purchase price.
1
0
3
The sharp rise in rates between 2022-2023 shifted the vast majority of borrowers to the steep portion of the relationship between deltas and moving and, as a result, a given increase in rates has stronger effects on moving.
1
0
3
A good in-between option would be for borrowers to pay a fee and, in turn, be able to take their low rate with them when they move. That's called portability and is available in the UK and Canada. Policymakers could encourage this type of renegotiation of existing contracts.
1
0
2
@drenerbas
@ProfJAParker
@toniwhited
@JuliaLanguage
TensorFlow uses C++ kernels in the back end, so similar performance isn’t surprising. But sure, TF’s outperformance might be attributable our C++ implementation being less optimized than that of highly skilled software engineers at Google.
1
0
2
@JHB_econ
@ben_golub
I thought I was used to your food takes by now but “burgers are bad” is something
1
0
2
Why are lock-in effects stronger in 2022-2024? Our framework shows that moving is sensitive to mortgage rates in the steep part of the figure above, where mortgage deltas (locked-in rate minus current market rate) are below 2 p.p., and the relationship is flat otherwise.
1
0
2
First-time buyers don't have a mortgage to port, but making it less costly for homeowners to sell their homes would bring some liquidity back into the market.
Link:
1
0
0
Ungated link:
0
0
0
@drenerbas
@ProfJAParker
@toniwhited
@JuliaLanguage
And we do report Numba results in Appendix Table A3. We don’t report JAX, but it uses the same compiler as TF and results are virtually identical.
0
0
1
@ShellyJLundberg
I did read that, but advice seemed conflicting. One said cover letter, another said after the offer. I guess there's no consensus...
0
0
1
@cawley_john
@AEACSWEP
@ShellyJLundberg
I did read that issue. Doesn't look like writers agreed on much... No one-size-fits-all advice, as I was told yesterday during
#econlife
:)
0
0
1