All of this data was from @FantasyPtsData If you made it down this far into the thread, any support is much appreciated! It's been a while since I have done one of these, and I will try to start engaging more on here.

The Raiders face the Browns this week… and David Njoku/Harold Fannin sets are going to give them problems. Meanwhile, the Bucs get the Rams, and Sean McVay has already leaned into throwing out of 2+ TE sets. This is the perfect matchup to keep doing it.

YPA vs 2+ TE sets with 4 or fewer DBs on the field: Lions 6.2 Bucs 9.0 Raiders 8.7 Dolphins 9.6 Cardinals 7.1 Browns 6.8 The Lions’ LBs can actually hold up in coverage. The Bucs, Raiders, and Dolphins… not so much.

Six teams play 4 or fewer DBs against 2+ TE sets on 70%+ of dropbacks: Lions 94.4% Bucs 79% Raiders 76% Dolphins 75% Cardinals 74% Browns 73% The Lions clearly stand out, but all of these are high rates. Now, let’s look at how they hold up when teams throw out of these looks.

The Bills get the Texans, who don't run a lot of 2+ TE sets, so that's going to be interesting to see if they try. The Chargers are on a bye week, and the Jets get the Ravens. The Ravens LOVE 12 personnel and are going to establish Derrick Henry.

The Falcons hit 60%+ usage of 2+ TE sets against the Bills last week. Still waiting on the Bucs/Bills and Jags/Chargers numbers, but I’m dying to see how often they went heavy — and whether the run game actually benefited.

Three other defenses use 5+ DBs on 60%+ of Dropbacks vs 2+ TE: • Bills • Chargers • Jets Their run results out of 5+ DBs vary in a bad way here: • Bills: 8.0 YPC • Chargers: 6.0 YPC • Jets: 4.9 YPC Same philosophy, totally different outcomes.

The Ravens allow 4.5 YPC vs 2+ TE when in 5+ DBs — good, not elite. But the Seahawks allow just 3.2 YPC in the same situation, one of the best marks in the league. Both teams also give up under 7 YPA vs the pass in these looks. Coverage over size works for them.

Now for the 2+ TE stuff (12, 13 personnel). The Seahawks — and the Ravens, where Mike Macdonald came from — play 5+ DBs on 78%+ of snaps vs these sets. They’re inviting the run by staying light. The results are very different for each team.

On the opposite end, the Steelers and Rams basically never stay big vs 11 — they use 5+ DBs almost every snap. YPA vs 11: • Steelers 7.4 • Rams 6.2 But the key: both rank top-5 in yards per carry allowed vs 11. Playing light doesn’t hurt their run defense at all.

Only two defenses face 25%+ of dropbacks from 11 personnel with 4 or fewer DBs on the field: the Lions and Raiders. YPA vs 11: • Raiders 6.6 → 6.3 (≤4 DBs) • Lions 7.2 → 8.2 (≤4 DBs) Wild that Vegas improves when they stay big, while Detroit gets cooked.

Personnel groupings are a huge talking point right now. The Rams/Seahawks are throwing out of 3-TE sets, while the Rams get most of their rushing efficiency from 11 personnel. So I dug into how defenses actually respond to different groupings this season.

That’s one of the worst DPI’s I’ve ever seen in my life.

Dan Campbell took over play calling and Jameson Williams usage seems to be trending upwards.

This Rams team is set up for a Super Bowl run.

The Texans not taking the points when they have Davis Mills at QB and are playing the Titans is a choice lol

✅ Eli Raridon o31.5 Receiving Yards 🔥 @JordanVanekDFS cashes this one easily, he finished with 67 receiving yards

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Cooper Barkate to the moon!