Jonathan Barth🇪🇺
@JonathanB4RTH
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Brussels Nerd, Economist, Founder, Senior Fellow @zoe_institute, @ThinkTank30 #ClubOfRome #economics #security #energy | vmo 🇪🇺🇩🇪
Brüssel, Belgien
Joined November 2009
Die geopolitische Lage verlangt nach einer sicherheitsorientierten Energiepolitik. Heute haben wir in der #BPK unsere Finanzstrategie vorgestellt, wie DE die Abhängigkeit von Erdgas um 78 % reduzieren kann @beyond_ideology @KristinaJeromin @adam_tooze 👉 https://t.co/aU0xXVYYWA
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In 2012, the EU was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. In 2025, it must show that it deserved it. The State of the Union is not just a speech. It is a signal marking the moment when Europe chose its direction.
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Yes, resilience sounds boring. It doesn’t speak the language of war and control. It doesn’t offer instant victories. But it may be the only path that allows Europe to be a credible guardian of peace, stability, and cooperation in a multipolar world.
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3️⃣ Will she move from reactivity to proactive coalition-building? In a world of multi-dimensional power shifts, coalitions must go beyond climate or trade. They must span technology, AI, infrastructure, critical resources, and joint economic deterrence.
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2️⃣ Is the EU willing to do what it takes to remain sovereign? The Google ruling was a promising step. But will von der Leyen confront Member States with the uncomfortable truth: we cannot have both appeasement and sovereignty.
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1️⃣ Will von der Leyen elevate climate policy to a pillar of Europe’s security and peace agenda? Not just in domestic terms — energy, water, and resource security — but as part of a broader foreign policy for resilience and influence.
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Three signals in the State of the Union will show whether the EU is ready to take the harder path: to forge its own pole of power — grounded not in dominance, but in decentralisation, reciprocity, and resilience. Three points to watch:
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The recent US-EU trade deal exposed Europe’s continued reliance on reactive diplomacy — bilateral firefighting and improvised alignment — while others consolidate into strategic poles. The U.S. secures interests through coercion. CN wields dominance through dependency.
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Climate change redraws the map of scarcity and abundance. It determines who survives when droughts spread and harvests fail; who controls the materials of the future; who holds the technological edge. Climate change is shifting power. But is Europe shifting with it?
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With geopolitics fragmenting, one thing becomes increasingly clear: climate change is not merely an environmental crisis. It is — and has always been — a question of war and peace. A catalyst for geopolitical transformation.
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The #SOTEU will reveal whether vdL understood the assignment. 1️⃣ Will she elevate climate policy to a pillar of Europe’s security and FP agenda? 2️⃣ Is the #EU willing to do what it takes to remain sovereign? 3️⃣ Will she shift from reactivity to coalition-building?🧵 #Geopolitics
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What Next For Germany? 🇩🇪 How to deal with Europe's changing military threat 🇩🇪 Rise of the #AfD 🇩🇪 Has #climatechange been forgotten? @helenamarschalI and @JonathanB4RTH join @GoldbergRadio From @BylineTimes
https://t.co/GTPSw0Mvsi
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Adrian Goldberg asks 'what's next for Germany?' after an election which saw the centre-right Union alliance between the conservative CDU and the CSU takes 28% of the vote. The CDU’s leader Friedr...
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Snapshot of Germany by @lucasguttenberg. Let it sink in. Germany in paralysis in a moment when Europe would need Germany the most.
So we have two scenarios: Either the government continues but will not be able to agree on anything after the budget because it has run out of political fuel. Or snap elections and a new government in April/May. Either way, Germany likely not the best partner to rely on for now.
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Feel free to share your perspectives in the comments below! 📝
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/A thread on Brussels drama A couple of weeks ago, I posted here that the EU's anti-subsidy tariffs are relatively safe. Today I think this was maybe a bit premature. If so, this would be a big problem for the EU's foreign economic policy agenda. Here is why.
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Nur so eine Beobachtung, weil man das wegen Russland/Ukraine, Nahost und ein bisschen Abstand vergisst: Zwischen der letzten Europawahl und dieser lag die größte Pandemie seit einem Jahrhundert - und es spielt quasi keine Rolle in den Analysen.
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Die Gefahr: Die Mitgliedsstaaten können sich nicht einigen und machen es nur halbherzig. Dann wird die EU abgehängt. Alle verlieren. Was denkt Ihr darüber? 🤔💬 /end
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𝟑. 𝐊𝐨𝐨𝐫𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐞 𝐅𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐳𝐢𝐞𝐫𝐮𝐧𝐠: Eine gemeinsame finanzielle Strategie, um Zukunftsindustrien zu fördern und Investitionen zu sichern. 💶📈 /5
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𝟐. 𝐑𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐞 𝐒𝐲𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐞𝐧 𝐧𝐮𝐭𝐳𝐞𝐧: Europa muss die Standortvorteile seiner Regionen nutzen – wie die Verlagerung energieintensiver Produktionen in Regionen mit einem Überfluss an erneuerbarer Energie. 🌞🌬️ /4
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𝟏. 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐡𝐞 𝐊𝐥𝐚𝐫𝐡𝐞𝐢𝐭: Wir müssen uns darüber einig sein, welche Sektoren wir in Europa stärken wollen, um geo-ökonomische Abhängigkeiten zu reduzieren. 🧭🏭 /3
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