In a new study, @Brad_Setser and I unpack how badly Germany’s trading relationship with China has backfired. And how a new government might help its industry weather the 2nd China shock. With terrific accompanying reporting in Handelsblatt and FT. 1/ https://t.co/yFFuCFLIJj

🇺🇸 [#Trade] What are the challenges of #Trump’s re-election for the EU on economic/political risks, EU vulnerabilities, and the need for unity and trade diversification? A Franco-German perspective by @elvirefabry & @ALeichthammer from @DelorsBerlin 👉 https://t.co/oVmIQ88NqJ

My retweet of Ling-Ling Wei's comment that China's economy is actually in a bit of trouble prompted a number of these kinds of comments. I hadn't realized quite how many people still put faith in the official Chinese numbers. So some data highlighting signs of weakness 1/

It‘s happening! After 25 years of negotiations, the EU is about to sign its mega trade & political partnership deal with South America‘s Mercosur bloc. Contrary to what critics say, I‘d argue it‘s not only geopolitically crucial but also good for farmers & environment. Thread 1/

Do Trump and Vance want to break the dollar? Donald Trump wants a weaker dollar in order to structurally tackle trade deficits. But he is not only clashing with China, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is also thwarting him. A 🧵 /1

Many of you may have noticed that I included in the post script a special note about one fascinating aspect of the China-exports-to Mexico story: Of that expected 480,000 cars Mexico imports from China this year, about 300,000 will be Chinese brands. And - are you ready for

Why didn’t that make a difference in the elections? For a sharp critique of why the Inflation Reduction Act failed to make a dent in the election, see @alexbronzini in The Guardian https://t.co/5aAfNznYCg

🗓️Where do we want to stand in 2029? Next Friday, 3.30 PM, we wrap up the #PariserPlatzDialogue with an online panel summarising the discussions. Joining us are @tiagoant, @Mij_Europe, @JosephdeWeck & Nadia Pantel, moderated by @onethuthree. Register now 👉 https://t.co/iSRMdlEvkC

This is big. The European market remains the most viable option for Chinese investments in the EV sector - the EU should act on the back of this strength and use it to boost its struggling domestic sector. https://t.co/yxdJNF7Dqs

end/ If you want to find out more how the EU should utilise Chinese FDI to support its struggling car industry, have a read here:

7/While the hearings often lacked substance, one promising stand-out for me was climate Commissioner-designate Hoekstra ruling out backtracking on either policy, arguing that industry needs predictability. The UK's flip-flopping tells a cautionary tale:

6/Back then, EU manufacturers were also a long way off. However, once the targets bit, they ramped up EV production significantly to avoid the penalties and offered lower cost EVs instead of focusing on more expensive cars that generated higher profit margins

5/The auto lobby (with notable exceptions, shoutout Stellantis) have lobbied hard to water down these targets in the last months. They are in parts far from reaching said targets. If history is anything to go off, this would be a mistake: the EU issued similar targets in 2020.

4/The fleet targets mandate that EU car manufacturers must reduce the average CO2 emission of their fleets by 15% by 2025 and by 37.5% by 2030 compared to 2021 levels. Car manufacturers that break these targets face hefty fines in the billions.

3/ Further, the EU should stick to the 2035 commitment to phase out new combustion cars and not relax its fleet emission cars for European car manufacturers to ensure sustained demand. Both are also vital to build both investor and consumer confidence.

2/Where possible, MS should expand incentives (tax breaks, subsidies, commercial fleet electrification grants) to encourage EV adoption. These should be linked to environmental considerations that favour EU-produced goods. Charging infrastructure rollout must also be accelerated

1/EV sales in Europe are declining. This has repercussions throughout the entire value chain: Northvolt's current struggles are just the symptom of a wider problem. What is needed is a coherent and reliable policy that counteracts such trends. https://t.co/9bMTUGPBgP

🧵 My new policy brief outlines how the EU can leverage Chinese FDI in its domestic EV value chain to boost competitiveness, innovation and high-quality employment. However, it is important to remember that any such efforts fundamentally hinge on increasing European demand

💥Breaking: EU has conclusive proof of armed drones for Russia being made in China https://t.co/v3hWDlaDGG

"Let’s face it, Brussels doesn’t really do English... In every turn of phrase, French false friends lurk just below the surface. " Every EU bubble veteran will burst out laughing at this by @EddyWax https://t.co/E7JgNMuaAW