John Harrison
@Jhdharrison1
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⚽️📊🧤 Head of Data Science @goalkeeper_com - University of Cambridge Astronomy PhD graduate - Data featured in @TheAthleticFC & @SkySportsPL
London/Outerspace
Joined February 2013
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Last Seen Profiles
Pinned Tweet
I am delighted to announce the launch of Goalkeeper xG!
A goalkeeper focused data company & consultancy specialising in helping football clubs scout new GKs while also providing performance analysis & training routine guidance.
Click here more info ⬇️
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THREAD:
1v1s are incredibly important situations for GKs to master as they correspond to 35% of all goals scored in the 19/20
#PremierLeague
!
In this thread I will show how effective various 1v1 strategies are at making saves.
I’m sure
#GKcoaches
will be v interested in this!
112
541
3K
#Alisson
is immense!
My model finds he’s been worth 0.56 goals every game to
#LFC
(vs if they had an average
#PremierLeague
GK)
Not only is his 1v1 stopping off the chart he’s performing above the expected level for an average
#PL
GK in every single aspect of goalkeeping!
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358
2K
It was great to see
@Carra23
&
@kschmeichel1
using & discussing our bespoke GK data on
#MNF
to highlight Kasper’s quality during 1v1s!
At we know context is vital & for too long GK stats have been riddled with unaccounted variables - we are changing that!
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130
2K
THREAD:
#Henderson
’s shot prevention has been class in his first 8
#PremierLeague
games & its played a big part in
#ManchesterUnited
’s success!
He is preventing 3.07 chances occurring per game corresponding to ~0.44 ExG per game!
That’s double
#DeGea
’s ExG prevented per game!
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283
2K
My 1st
@goalkeeper_com
piece:
How many goals were the big 6 GKs worth vs the avg
#PL
GK?
#Alisson
was worth ~19 goals! What more does a GK have to do to get
#POTY
!
#DeGea
was the best shot stopper but his weak shot prevention & distribution meant he was only worth ~3 goals!
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373
2K
#Alisson
is unreal!
Overall my model finds he is worth 0.49 goals every game to
#LFC
(vs if they had an average
#PremierLeague
GK)
Amazingly he is performing above the expected level for an average
#PL
GK in every aspect of goalkeeping & his 1v1 stopping is just off the chart!
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265
2K
#Alisson
’s
#PremierLeague
form is an absolute joke! 🔥
He’s faced 7 1v1 situations so far & saved all 7! 🤯
My model predicts an average
#PL
GK would’ve conceded ~4 goals from those situations by now! 👑
How long do we think he can keep the 100% record? 🤔
#LFC
#LiverpoolFC
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309
1K
A GK’s handling ability is vital & often under analysed!
Here
#DeGea
showed how handling can determine a game’s outcome when he parried a 49mph central shot into danger & the rebound was scored!
xRebound xG = 0.09
Actual Rebound xG = 0.47
xG added due to poor handling = 0.38
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245
1K
Wow this is an big misuse of statistics
1. It doesn’t taking into account any saves thus he will always under perform!
2. It is using preshot xG not postshot hence doesn’t include shot trajectory or velocity!
Pre tonight
OoB Goals Conceded: 9
OoB PSxG: 6.81
Performance: -2.19
Dean Henderson has conceded 10 goals from outside of the box from a combined xG of 0.60.
#NFFC
[
@oilysailor
]
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208
3K
23
190
1K
#Palmer
’s goal highlights an issue in
#Onana
’s game!
Even on slow shots he often fails to make a horizontal step pre-dive!
Yes the shot is in the corner but it’s low speed means our model at finds it’s saved 81% of the time by an avg
#PremierLeague
GK!
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206
1K
#DeGea
struggles with close range 1v1s continue!
His decision making is good, as he doesn’t engage too soon & only engages once he cannot to react in time to the shot, but his problem is, as always, the way he twists his body away from contact which leaves gaps in his barrier!
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978
I’ve finally graduated with my Astronomy PhD after finishing in August 2020!
I’ve loved my 8 years at Cambridge University & it will always be home!
My time analysing stars & planets is over & I’m now going to be analysing football & goalkeepers full time!
@cambridge_astro
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25
1K
What a moment for
#Messi
!
Our model at finds the power & placement of
#Messi
’s penalty means it is expected to result in a goal 99.9% of the time making it the best PK of the
#WorldCup
!
0-0 in a
#FIFAWorldCup
semi & he smashed in a 100%er, world class!
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981
My models view of
#Ramsdale
’s FK save:
He was well positioned as he was stood on the line between the ball & the outside of the wall!
It was a good, but not unbelievable, save. My model finds such a FK gets saved ~50% of the time due to its low speed & distance from the post!
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100
951
People saying “that’s why he doesn’t usually sweep” have never watched
#Pope
!
#Pope
has prevented more chances via sweeping (35) than any other
#PremierLeague
GK & is currently the 2nd best PL sweeper in terms of xG prevented (below
#Alisson
)!
Even the best make mistakes
#NUFC
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865
Last night was rough for
#DeGea
The 1st goal was a textbook shot stopping technique selection mistake
The shot went next to DDG’s right foot but rather than go with his foot he went with his hand
It was odd to see as DDG’s shot stopping technique selection is usually flawless!
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821
#Alisson
the 1v1 king saves
#LFC
again!
His 1v1 ability is key to
#Liverpool
’s success!
He’s class at not over committing early & that makes it so hard for strikers!
Backing off initially & only then rushing after makes both the 1st time finish & the 2nd time finish difficult!
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743
#Ramsdale
’s ability to claim crosses & diffuse opposition attacks has been massive for
#AFC
!
His willingness to claim has lead to
#Arsenal
conceding 0.07 ExG fewer each game vs if they had an average
#PremierLeague
GK!
This corresponds to preventing roughly 3 goals a season!
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708
#DeGea
’s ability to deal with crosses has quite rightly been criticised.
In the
#PremierLeague
#DeGea
has only prevented 6 opposition chances occurring by claiming crosses!
My model finds this lack of activity means
#MUFC
concede on average an additional 0.14 ExG every game!
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675
Holding onto the post when facing shots from tight angles causes issues as it disrupts the set position!
Thus
#DeGea
cannot control the parry & knees it to an area with 88% rebound probability!
An avg GK would be expected to parry it into an area with rebound probability 15%
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696
For context the “worst” two goals
#DeGea
conceded in the
#PremierLeague
this year were against
#Brentford
&
#WestHam
& they had expected save probabilities of 96% & 98%.
So historical data shows the
#FACup
final winner was far more difficult than these shots to save!
#MUFC
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634
How has
#DeGea
performed so far in the
#PremierLeague
under
#EtH
?
His sweeping & passing under pressure are much improved & are now above the
#PL
avg level but his usually incredible shot stopping has been average & his issues with crosses mean overall he’s cost
#MUFC
~2 goals!
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609
#Mitoma
’s goal is great example of how shot stopping models without shot speed or accurate ball trajectory produce very inaccurate results
There is no way an avg
#PremierLeague
GK saves it 47% of the time
Our model at gives this shot an ExSave of just 3%
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561
#Alisson
was by far the GK of the year
My model finds he’s been worth ~19 goals to
#LFC
vs if they had an average
#PremierLeague
GK!
Not only is his 1v1 stopping off the chart he’s performing above the expected level for an average
#PL
GK in every single aspect of goalkeeping!
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518
What a huge moment this turned out to be from
#Henderson
What a difference a week makes, this time he times his arm swing well & keeps his eyes on the ball all the way hence he’s far more upright when the ball reaches him & thus he can get a strong hand to the ball!
#UEL
11
57
500
Lots of
#DeGea
talk today:
He’s an exceptional shot stopper but below
#PremierLeague
level in terms of shot preventing & distributing!
Yes he’s been a net positive, worth a goal every 4 games, but that’s largely down to
#MUFC
facing the 2nd most shots on target in the
#PL
!
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499
Here is how the
#PL
big 6 GKs have done vs close range 1v1s over the past 3 years:
#Ederson
+6.9
#Ramsdale
+6.2
#Alisson
+6.1
#Kepa
-1.2
#Lloris
-1.5
#DeGea
-5.0
Ali Ederson & Rambo are class vs close range 1v1s Kepa & Lloris are a tad below average while DDG really struggles
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475
Goals where the GK rushes out to close down the attacker when there is a covering defender & the striker has a difficult finish keep happening at this
#FIFAWorldCup
!
In all 3 of these cases the GKs cut their reaction time for no reason & gifted the striker’s far easier finishes!
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494
Very pleased to announce that I will be joining
@goalkeeper_com
as the head of data science!
I’m so happy that soon I will be able to dedicate 100% of my time to football analysis!
Get ready for some big things from
@goalkeeper_com
regarding GK analysis, GK education, & beyond!
New Signing! 📝
We at are beyond delighted to announce that data analyst and Cambridge PhD astronomer,
@Jhdharrison1
is joining the team.🪐
John is working alongside us in our quest to shake up the goalkeeping space.🌪️
Exciting project, coming soon...⏰
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21
489
#FIFAWorldCup
GKs should’ve stayed central vs PKs more!
🚀 64% of PKs were hit to the closed side & 61% of GKs dived to the closed side
🎯 22% of PKs were hit to the open side & 33% of GKs dived to the open side
↕️ 14% of PKs were hit centrally & only 6% of GKs stayed central
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491
THREAD:
Today I’ll breakdown
#DeGea
’s performance in the
#PremierLeague
using my bespoke GK models!
The headline is for the first time in 3 seasons
#DeGea
’s shot stopping skills are outweighing his weak shot prevention skills & thus far he has saved
#MUFC
~5 additional goals!
18
97
477
#Henderson
’s cross claiming has been exceptional in his first 5
#PremierLeague
appearances
#Henderson
boasts a 100% claim success rate while being twice as active the average
#PL
GK!
His claiming is preventing
#ManchesterUnited
conceding chances worth ~0.4 ExG per game!
#MUFC
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88
466
The
#PremierLeague
is back!
How has your team’s GK performed?
#Pickford
’s class shot stopping & distribution puts him top 🏴
#Pope
,
#Henderson
, &
#Leno
have had great starts at their new clubs🧤
Big mistakes have cost
#DeGea
&
#Ramsdale
😱
#Ward
has struggled in all areas 😞
25
98
457
How has
#DeGea
contributed to
#MUFC
this year?
My model finds overall
#DDG
is a net positive to
#ManchesterUnited
& is worth +0.23 goals per 90 more than the avg
#PremierLeague
GK!
But this is the first time in 3yrs his good shot stopping has outweighed his poor shot preventing
29
72
447
What a save this was by
#TerStegen
His decision making was so good. By dropping deep as
#Saka
ran in 1v1 & allowing his defenders to pressure the ball he didn’t gift
#Saka
a sidefoot or dinked finish
Thus he turned a 36% goal probability chance into just an 11% chance!
#ENGGER
5
34
458
Over his 4 years at
#Chelsea
#Kepa
has often struggled with 1v1s & he got another one wrong tonight.
By rushing so early he made
#Orsic
’s job far easier, my 1v1 model finds by rushing so soon he turned a 39% chance into a 62% chance!
#UCL
#ChampionsLeague
27
75
428
What a save by
#DeGea
!!!!
He has finally broken the streak at 40 penalties conceded in a row!!
His footwork looked so much better in the build up thus it’s no surprise he managed to get all the way across his goal so quickly & make the save!
#MUFC
#WHUMNU
#PremierLeague
8
95
425
#DeGea
is one of the best GKs in the
#PremierLeague
when dealing with long range 1v1s & the save vs
#Armstrong
was great!
He knew AA was ~15yrd out so it would take a top finish to beat him so he didn’t need to rush out or gamble as that would only make AA’s finish easier
#MUFC
7
111
416
What a 1v1 save from
#Ramsdale
It takes bravery to hold a deep position & not rush out too early during a 1v1 &
#Ramsdale
managed it
By holding deep he allowed his defender to pressure the ball & he forced a hard finish by not gifting a simple side foot or dink
@goalkeeper_com
17
40
416
What a performance from
#Henderson
today!
His PK routine was wonderful
Stands still, tall, & wide -> Maximises intimidation factor ✅
Power step to the side he anticipates the ball to go -> Maximises dive range ✅
Keeps deep to the line -> Maximises reaction time ✅
#NFFC
7
62
400
It was great to see GK xG data on
@SkySportsNews
today & as requested here is the full
#PremierLeague
OGV table!
👑 Last year
#LFC
’s
#Alisson
took the crown being worth ~16 goals!
⬇️ Interestingly all the GKs of relegated teams struggled!
For more info:
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395
#DeGea
has a profile unlike any of the other big 6 GKs, while he is an awesome shot stopper who saved
#MUFC
~10 goals more than if they had an avg
#PremierLeague
GK, his weak shot preventing & distribution means
#MUFC
concede far more chances than they would with an avg
#PL
GK!
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386
By combining all of the save probability maps I can find the optimum technique a GK can use when attempting to save the ball during a traditional 1v1 when the ball is in a certain location.
Given the strength of the wait, block, & spread are we coaching these strategies enough?
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385
Despite
#NUFC
’s loss to
#MUFC
#Karius
showed that he is more than capable of playing at the top level!
Our model at
#GKxG
found his shot stopping was worth 0.22 goals more to
#Newcastle
than if they had an average
#PremierLeague
GK in goal
Full article👇
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384
#Ederson
’s biggest weakness has been exposed again!
His decision making during long range 1v1s is consistently poor as he rushes far too early which reduces his chances of making the save
He needs to lure the CF into the box to increase his chances of making the save
#UCLFinal
#Ederson
’s biggest weakness costs
#ManchesterCity
again!
His habit of rushing out & engaging during long range 1v1s consistently costs goals!
He needs to back pedal into his 6yrd box & force a proper finish
By rushing here he allows a central sidefoot (the easiest finish) in!
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17
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375
Tonight wasn’t good for
#Henderson
, not only did he have a few handling issues, at the end he got this 1v1 with
#Salah
wrong
He correctly decided not to engage on
#Salah
’s outside the box touch but then he must engage on
#Salah
’s next touch as the 1v1 is so close to goal!
#MUFC
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358
#Ederson
could be so good if he stopped doing this!
It is so frustrating watching him cost city goals game after game cos of his decision making during long range 1v1s.
He gets into an awful position way out of goal & lets a weak central shot go in.
He needs to stay deep!
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