Almost all stock-market troughs in the past have occurred in periods of backwardation — when the VIX curve is higher near-term. But that usually happens when $SPX has suffered a steeper correction beyond 5% from a record. The good news for bulls is it’s a mild inversion for now.

For some, the spike in near-term derivatives pricing is a signal froth had been blown out of the market, and there is no ominous warning emanating from the options market. To others, the inverted VIX curve is a precursor of more pain for stocks. https://t.co/GHk7RhMGik

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An equal-weight version of the S&P 500 has trailed the version that is weighted by market value by 21 percentage points since October 2022 — the widest underperformance from the start of a bull market since at least the 1990s, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Of the 13 prior bull markets since World War II, 7 completed a 4th year, with an average gain of 88%. This one has essentially done that in three years, putting $SPX’s trailing price-to-earnings ratio at 25 — the highest ever for a bull market in its 3rd year, via @StovallCFRA

The S&P 500 began its current bull run on Oct. 12, 2022, soaring 83% in that time and adding about $28 trillion in market value. The benchmark’s 13% jump the past 12 months is twice the average rise in the third year of a bull market, per @StovallCFRA https://t.co/fdfV5mjuuK

The S&P 500 $SPX has advanced 35% since its April 8 trough, when global trade war fears sent US stocks on the cusp of a bear market. A six-month advance of this magnitude was seen in just five other instances since 1950, data compiled by Bloomberg show. https://t.co/tdfDJrmFit

Goldman Sachs basket of most-shorted stocks has surged 14% this month, beating $SPX’s 3% gain putting the bank’s tracker on pace for its best September since 2010. The 14-day RSI for Goldman’s most-shorted basket is the most overbought since height of meme mania in early 2021.

The S&P 500 $SPX has gone 107 sessions without a drop of at least 2% — its longest stretch since July 2024, according to data compiled by Bloomberg via @markets https://t.co/xdYDjmv5pJ

The S&P 500 has added $15 trillion in market value since early April and notched 27 records in 2025. Its 34% gain over the last five months is a feat topped in just four other instances since 1950, according to data compiled by Bloomberg via @markets https://t.co/51UDFVEcmb

The S&P 500 $SPX finished just 0.1% lower on Wednesday to mark the second-smallest Fed day swing for the benchmark stock index in at least two years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg via @markets https://t.co/FIiv0RaJu8

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In the four cycles since the 1970s where the Fed delivered only one or two cuts after pausing at least six months, cyclical sectors like financials and industrials outperformed, per Ned Davis Research. In cycles where four or more cuts were needed, investors leaned defensive.

Bullish traders have history on their side: $SPX was 15% higher, on average, a year after cuts resumed after a pause of six months or more, data from Ned Davis Research since the 1970s show. That compares to a 12% gain in the same period after the first cut of an ordinary cycle.

A $14 trillion rally that has taken stocks to record highs is heading for an inflection point next week, with investors expecting the Fed to resume cutting interest rates

The VIX, which measures expected price swings in the S&P 500, is sitting steps away from the lowest level this year. Meanwhile, the ICE BofA MOVE Index, the bond market’s version of the VIX, is bracing for volatility to pick up soon.

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While it looks like volatility has vanished, traders are still obsessed with macro data. Over the past three months, $SPX average volatility on days when CPI, monthly jobs figures and Fed rate decisions are released has been 50% higher than in all other sessions, per Asym 500.

Options traders are betting $SPX will post a modest swing Thursday following the CPI report, with a projected move of nearly 0.7% in either direction, per Piper Sandler. That’s below an average realized move of 1% over the past year. With @geoffreymorgan

Jobs reports, a key inflation reading, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and triple witching all hit over the next 14 trading sessions, setting the tone for investors as they return from summer vacations

Volatility has vanished. Now hedge funds are betting the calm will last, shorting the Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, at rates not seen in three years. But such eerie calm and extreme positioning has historically foreshadowed a spike in turbulence https://t.co/Hn8ScZopHv

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The stakes are high for Fed Chair Powell’s speech Friday in Jackson Hole, with traders speculating that weakening jobs growth could open the door to a more dovish stance. But the risk is Powell stays tight-lipped after a string of hot inflation prints. https://t.co/1Ixexqs7dE