While @cfraresearch expects this #BullMarket could enter its fourth year, it may do so amid #increased #turbulence. To learn more, visit https://t.co/uFrxj5BQ0I.

Looking ahead, elevated valuations and the upcoming midterm elections pose challenges. The #SP500 now has the highest 3rd-year P/E ratio since WWII, & midterm years historically bring increased #volatility, with average drawdowns of 18% followed by strong Q4 rebounds.

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Over the past year, the #SP500 gained 12.7%—its 4th-strongest 3rd-year performance since WWII—despite a sharp 19% correction. Although a brief pullback followed trade-related tensions in early October, the market’s 89% rise since inception suggests continued #potential.

October 12 marked the third anniversary of the current bull market, which began after the #SP500⬇️25.4% amid concerns over the #FederalReserve’s #RateHikes. Despite those fears, the economy has remained resilient, and the market has advanced with 90 new all-time #highs.

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Historically, actual results have exceeded end-of-quarter forecasts in 64 of 66 quarters since 2009, suggesting that @cfraresearch's assessment of effective expectation management by corporate leadership may once again prove #conservative.

At the granular level, #AerospaceAndDefense, #FertilizerAndAgriculturalChemicals, & #LeisureFacilities are positioned for the strongest gains, while #CoalAndConsumableFuels, #CommodityChemicals, and #ForestProducts are expected to experience the steepest⏬.

Conversely, #ValueOriented investments face #headwinds, with the #SP500ValueIndex, alongside the #ConsumerDiscretionary, #ConsumerStaples, #Energy, #HealthCare, & #RealEstate sectors, anticipated to post⏬.

The current 6.9% expectation is primarily driven by robust performance in growth-oriented sectors, with the #SP500Growth index projected to gain 19.2% & #InformationTechnology leading at 20.2%, while #Financials, #Industrials, and #Utilities also expected to #outperform.

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#SP500 Q3 earnings expectations have been revised ⏬from an initial 12.7% growth projection to 6.9% as of Sept 30, marking a⏬of 5% pts below the post-2009 quarterly average. This drop comes amid recession fears that led to a nearly 19% market sell-off in early April.

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“History shows $SPX atypical gains in Aug & Sept should not steal from Santa, as SPX’s strong [Q4] avg return & high freq of advance remained unaffected. New highs in SPX typically result in above-avg 3M price gains, as well as 10% improvement in freq of advance.” @cfraresearch

#Inflation is projected at 3.2% by year-end before moderating in 2026. #OilPrices should remain near $65/barrel, while corporate earnings and revenues are expected to grow into 2025 and accelerate in 2026.

Economic forecasts remain constructive: U.S. #GDP is projected to rise 3.0% in Q3 and 2.3% in Q4, while #unemployment may edge up to 4.4% by year-end. The Fed cut rates by 25 bps in September and is expected to ease further, likely bringing the 10-year yield down to 4.0%.

#SmallCap stocks, represented by the #Russell2000, also tend to outperform when following multiple SP500 highs. Supportive factors include expected Fed rate cuts through 2025 and into 2026, alongside improving S&P 500 earnings growth.

As Q4 begins, historical patterns suggest a note of #optimism. The #SP500 has historically delivered #strong #Q4 returns, even after gains in August and September, with new market highs often leading to above-average performance and higher frequencies of advance.

"The AI hype is real," CFRA Research chief investment strategist @StovallCFRA says. "People always talk about equating it to a baseball game. Which inning is it in? Our belief is we're probably still in batting practice. There is tremendous growth expected for AI."

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With small-cap valuations nearly two standard deviations below their 20-year average, this undervalued asset class may be turning a corner. To learn more, visit us at https://t.co/uFrxj5CnQg.

The Russell 2000's first new high since Nov 2021 is notable, as the #SP500 has set 89 highs since then. Historically, when both indices hit new highs after the #SP500 logs over 20 highs, the #Russell2000 outperforms, achieving 2.5 times its avg 3-month rtn & ⬆️80% of the time.