Jake Day
@Jake_Day4
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@rlmcelreath @RealJonBrauer Ironically, my (non-criminological) dissertation, and the work that came out of it, is likely similarly biased (selected on survivors/successful coaches) because I ignored some critical early feedback from one of my committee members! For example:
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@rlmcelreath @RealJonBrauer Novak et al. (2023) have a good overview in Experimental Criminology:
link.springer.com
Journal of Experimental Criminology - We provide a brief overview of collider bias and its implications for criminological research. Owing to the nature of the topics studied, as well as the common...
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@rlmcelreath @RealJonBrauer and I tried to explain (and confront our fear of) colliders in a criminological context in an early blog post: https://t.co/7hZPyMx5Vd >
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@rlmcelreath Given this, the most interesting submissions will tend to be less robust conditioning on submission to a journal. >
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@rlmcelreath My logic: People send manuscripts to Sociological Forum (and basically any other journal) because they think they are particularly interesting, particularly rigorous, or some combination. >
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It's a classic example of collider bias that @rlmcelreath describes eloquently in relation to grant applications and awards: https://t.co/EVeUqeOQKh >
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I like the causal story and its implications re more collaboration early in the research process. But the specific issue Cole discusses here (interesting articles are less robust) might be explained by selection (in this case submission to Sociological Forum). >
We've had the same problems with publishing for a long time (ex. vet your research before you undertake it). Why are they still problems? This from Cole, editor of Sociological Forum, in 1993.
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Briefly want to draw some implications for you from the observation that: -Scientists write, review, and share empirical results constantly as their primary job function -But scientists do not actually read and engage empirical results with the bare minimum to understand them
Q: "Over your entire career, how many times have you attempted to fully map an empirical paper's implicit -Estimand -DAG -ID Assumptions And then put priors on those assumptions and tried to propagate the uncertainty through the results."
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🧵New Preprint: Is "self-control" a real psychological entity, an emergent property, or a statistical fiction? Our new paper challenges criminology's hidden assumptions about measurement. w/ @Jake_Day4 @agrahamphd
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Landmark new article in @Theory_Society from @RealJonBrauer and Jacob Day. Criminology requires an important shift in priority and perspective to prevent further deterioration of the field's legitimacy and capacity to be truth-seeking. "By confronting the crisis directly and
link.springer.com
Theory and Society - Criminology struggles to achieve progressive problem shifts, or cumulative theoretical development common in fields like physics and biology. This stems from a precision crisis...
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The goal: Transforming criminological knowledge products so they constitute the accumulation of real "money in the bank" for precise, falsifiable theories & thus contribute to cumulative theoretical development. (12/12) Full paper w/@Jake_Day4: https://t.co/QcyRMMjM7V
link.springer.com
Theory and Society - Criminology struggles to achieve progressive problem shifts, or cumulative theoretical development common in fields like physics and biology. This stems from a precision crisis...
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@JohnHolbein1 We reanalyzed a published null, showing data lack signal to trust oft-cited null interpretation (large effects also plausible given same data; measurement decisions matter). Based on citation patterns though, I'd say we failed to "overturn" anything. 🤔🤷 https://t.co/2bWBJLnxrN
journals.sagepub.com
This article presents two alternative methods to null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) for improving inferences from underpowered research designs. Post h...
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New Content Alert: In a new blog post, Jon & Jake offer a pluralist response to Andrew Wheeler’s call to “build stuff” and discuss their recent preprints, in which they suggest how to move beyond Monopoly money publications to genuine scientific currency https://t.co/4cYlQ2y1YO
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@lonecrim Well, it was written by a couple dopes... 🤷🤣 Thanks for sharing! Look forward to your feedback.
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New preprint! Criminology faces a "precision crisis," hindering cumulative theoretical development unlike physics/biology. We argue current practices yield vague theories & archaic statistical summaries, producing "Monopoly money" (@a_m_mastroianni) knowledge. #Criminology
#SocArXiv: Money in the Bank: Progressive Problem Shifts in Criminological Science
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#SocArXiv: Money in the Bank: Progressive Problem Shifts in Criminological Science
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My self-perception as a (social) scientist perfectly encapsulated in a single margin note.
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New preprint! Do crime projections = behavior? We test congruence & dynamics using panel (🇧🇩) & cross-sectional (🇷🇸🇧🇦) data. Projections predict, but... https://t.co/IzKPW8tgW2
#criminology #crime 1/n
osf.io
Criminologists often substitute projected offending likelihood for behavior, yet the empirical projection-behavior gap requires scrutiny. This study employed multi-method analyses using panel...
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Check out my first preprint! In it, @Jake_Day4 & I encourage ordinal modeling for analyzing ordinal outcomes. We show how to quantify effect magnitudes w/greater accuracy & precision, helping us move us beyond just interpreting stat significance & broad directional statements.
#SocArXiv: Pursuing Precision in Criminology: Why Ordinal Data Demand Ordinal Methods
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New Content Alert: We posted Jon's free @iubssrc talk on "Assuming in Public" about DAGs and colliders! It’s about an hour long and mostly accurate. Hey, you get what you pay for. https://t.co/GQ2QORv7ND
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