New piece by me looking at multilevel voting in Wales🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 - Voter switching between Westminster and the Senedd🔁 - How popular are the parties? - Seat projections for expanded Senedd All using new @WalesGovernance Welsh Election Study data https://t.co/mRPaTBrssV

Finally it gives us information about coalition possibilities and proportionality of the results. I've written up an explainer here that outlines how it works, what it does and doesn't do, and also plans for improvement https://t.co/aG915HAoMs

It also visualises for seats are actually allocated in different constituencies and tells us how tight the margins are.

First, and the obvious one, is that it can turn vote shares into estimates of seats in the new expanded Senedd using either uniform or proportional swing. Users can either enter their own numbers or choose from presets of different scenarios

Over last year I've been building a Senedd Election Simulator tool. It gives a useful (I hope!) visual explainer of how the new election system turns votes into seats. 🧵 on some of what it can do below: https://t.co/pPE1ReHLIt

BRECWAST BRIFFIO: Ymunwch â'r tîm Astudiaeth Etholiad Cymru bore Iau i drafod data a dadansodiaddau newydd o'r etholiad y DU 2024: BREAKFAST BRIEFING: Join @Jaclarner & @RWynJones on Thursday to discuss new data and analysis from the Wales Election Study: https://t.co/ep93j5bx8G

⚡️NEW WALESCAST OUT NOW⚡️ School's Out for Summer... @felicityxevans + @jamswilliams85 take stock of a momentous period in Cardiff Bay and Westminster with @GarethLewis77 @shelleylphelps + @Jaclarner Enjoy 👇 https://t.co/gZ2yor9DiP

Finally, I provide seat projections for expanded Senedd using these numbers - We don't know final constituency pairings, so I run the model on 1000 possible twining arrangements - Range of results are plotted below, along with the mean number of seats for each party

Why? Because Labour voters really like Plaid Cymru! Below is a 0-10 'party like' plot by 2024 vote - Some of these Labour voters are Plaid supporters voting tactically - We also see multilevel partisanship/party ID: 16% of Labour partisans say they support to Plaid at Welsh level

Here we have switching between how someone voted on 4 July (left hand side) and how they said they would vote in Senedd election (right hand side) - Largest and most predictable transfer is between Labour and Plaid Cymru - Common pattern since start of devolution

✍️ "Perhaps the most intriguing development in Wales was the surge of Reform UK." 🚨NEW: As Welsh Labour gets a new leader, @Jaclarner unpacks the general election result in Wales, exploring the potential cracks in Welsh Labour's foundations. https://t.co/WhB0YFIcFT

New piece from me about Eluned Morgan's election. While unity and continuity may sound good for Welsh Labour, something different is needed for Wales https://t.co/H6R6KZR0dd

Last chance to apply for 12 month position working with us on the Welsh Election Study. Ideal for someone close to submitting/ has already submitted PhD

Clear trend emerging in Wales: - Labour vote down across South Wales, but not facing much competition at all - Plaid up everywhere - Reform likely will finish second in vote share - Tory drop off in line with most pessimistic polls

CANLYNIAD: Ynys Môn Dilynwch ar ein llif byw 👇 https://t.co/ddgbnrRRT0

Huge changes happening in Scotland, so no-one better to follow than the SES team 👇

That Rayleigh and Wickford swing of 22.4 Con to Lab surpasses the previous highest ever C2L swing of 18.8 (Brent North, 1997)

Early first look at some of the Pre-election Welsh Election Study Data @WalesGovernance Here is change in Conservative vote by different demographics in our 2019 pre-election data vs 2024. Not good Will keep updating this thread through the night

In Wales, Exit Poll has Tories holding Mont & Monmouthshire, but losing Brecon by big margin. Ynys Môn and Caerfyrddin with healthy margins for Plaid, but Exit polls have historically struggled with predicting Plaid seats

On last day before voting, see how you compare to the parties on the issues important to you Check out our vote compass below! https://t.co/bZ2WoAqZBV