IsaacWxObserver
@IsaacWxObserver
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Weather observer in Rockland county. I focus on weather in and around NYC
Chestnut Ridge, NY
Joined March 2018
First of the evening weather models are in, and we are still looking good for accumulating snow on Sunday. Important note - it looks like this will be a two part storm. One burst in the morning, followed by an afternoon lull and then a heavier round in the evening.
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The king has finally fallen
Yeah, guys, Euro never changed one bit! It totally nailed tomorrow's system to a tee. Perfect verification.
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HRRR is bringing nearly an inch per rates for NYC tomorrow evening
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Global models are typically going to be behind the curve when it comes to these sorts of events that involve either isentropic upglide, mid level warm advection, and last second NW trends, like this weekend’s storm on the East Coast. Just beware of that
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After light snow during the day, you get a much more classic look for a 40/70 coastal storm. Temperatures likely around 31-33°, and with heavy rates, more than enough to stick.
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EPS tends to have a slight cold bias during cold blasts, but that is a crazy amount of members showing below 0F temperatures in NYC at some point.
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AI models have proven themselves for tomorrow. And my favorite RGEM.
RGEM is my favorite short term model. It usually does quite well with storm location and precip. Lets see if 18z euro/eps gives in or not.
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Pretty cool you can spot some mesolows developing over the Upstate of SC tomorrow on the CAMs as low-level NW flow interacts w/ the mtns These mesolows help back-build the precip westward some, allowing cold advection to catch-up & increase the chances for some snow in GSP-CLT
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One of the heavier short snowstorms I can remember. It snowed for a little over 4 hours and I got 3.2 inches of snow.
3.2 inches in Chestnut Ridge NY. Season total 16.7 inches.
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2 days in a row with meaningful snowfall. Not a common thing around here.
Patriots fans are probably getting worried now. Snow levels the playing field. We saw the same thing with the an Eagles Rams game last year. One-off stuff happens.
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If anything now that we have increased confidence in an amplified/NW cyclone evolution and a mid-level fgen axis slowly translating to the east, there’s still a chance for a narrow >6” swath in south/east New England potentially into parts of the NYC metro
Btw, I wouldn’t rule out >6” chances in the NYC metro & even parts of NE NJ depending on how far NW precip expands and where snow banding sets up (which is still a bit too soon to tell) Courtesy of me & my snowstorm curse being out of town
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3.2 inches in Chestnut Ridge NY. Season total 16.7 inches.
5.1 Chester, NY @weatherwilly @Lclimateguy @NWSNewYorkNY @nynjpaweather @LeeGoldbergABC7 @IsaacWxObserver
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RGEM now on board for tomorrow. Should be a nice event.
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Cold, cold, and more cold. No end in sight to the colder weather in the great lakes/Northeast
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2-4 inches of snow is expected in the Hudson Valley tomorrow.
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At 7:30 PM this evening, Fairbanks International Airport officially reached 0°F for the first time in 32 days or since December 13th 2025! This marks the longest consecutive stretch of temperatures staying below zero in Fairbanks in 108 years. #akwx
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Im posting this, because this has to be the most insane temperature output I've seen a model put out in a very long time. Put this in the hall of fame.
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Btw, I wouldn’t rule out >6” chances in the NYC metro & even parts of NE NJ depending on how far NW precip expands and where snow banding sets up (which is still a bit too soon to tell) Courtesy of me & my snowstorm curse being out of town
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