Isaac Hale
@IsaacHale
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Assistant Professor of Politics at @occidental. Formerly: @ucsantabarbara postdoc, @ucdavis lecturer, and @TulchinResearch pollster. 🏳️🌈
Los Angeles, CA
Joined January 2009
RT @NicholasNapolio: Very excited to share a new project I've been working on. MCs have a statistically detectable preference for enforci….
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RT @RepJournal: NEW!.Do interest groups shape Americans' policy preferences? In a new study, Algara, Hale, & Simmons find pro-reform messag….
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RT @b_schaffner: if you've been waiting for the CES common content data to be released, your wait is nearly over. data should be posted ear….
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RT @JakeMGrumbach: This paper deserves more attention. Uses Keyssar and other data to compile the most comprehensive historical state disen….
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RT @PIPECollab: Great @PIPECollab presentation today on Senate elections and political amateurs since 1980 by @IsaacHale. Coauthor @algarac….
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RT @SplitTicket_: We've invested years into building the best, publicly-available database of modeled candidate quality. Today, we're unve….
split-ticket.org
Today, we’re releasing our 2024 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) candidate quality models, for both the House and the Senate. For those of you unfamiliar with the concept, here’s a brief primer: our mo…
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RT @OwenWntr: This year's presidential election had the lowest variation in state swings (in two-party margin) of any presidential election….
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Thanks to @kcalnews for having me on today to talk election 2024!.
Assistant Professor of Politics @IsaacHale offers insights into the importance of battleground states in today's election on @kcalnews.
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RT @ElectsWorld: 🇯🇵#Japan, general election results:. Seats called by the NHK:. LDP: 186 seats.CDP: 143.Ishin: 35.DPP: 26.Komeito: 22.Reiwa….
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RT @JakeMGrumbach: This is a really excellent piece in Bloomberg from @MaryEllenKlas & Carolyn Silverman. Draws on @DevinCaughey & @cwarsha….
bloomberg.com
A trove of legislative and electoral data reveals that when one party secures control, voters get ignored.
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RT @MattGrossmann: Poli sci election forecasting models offer mixed predictions & mostly close races, with some new models & missing old mo….
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RT @RaqCenteno: Our statewide poll (out today!) was covered in Politico California Playbook again! Thanks @politico for spotlighting our wo….
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RT @danmoskowitz: I was Derek's discussant at APSA for his JMP on "amateurs." His work is thoughtful, provocative, and creative.
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RT @b_schaffner: when he first ran in 2016, voters weren't too sure how to place Trump on the ideological scale, but his presidency offered….
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RT @EdHeadington: Occidental’s .@IsaacHale presenting on Does Quality Count? Considering Candidates in #Senate Elections 1980-2022 at #APSA….
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RT @Spencer_Goidel: It was a long journey, but the first chapter of my dissertation (that began in a writing class at Texas A&M, Fall 2020)….
journals.sagepub.com
Voters, like consumers, experience choice overload when presented with too many similar options. The literature on consumer behavior finds overwhelmed consumers...
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Phenomenal new article on the nationalization of state legislative elections!.
Thrilled to share this work w/another talented @CGUnews student Alex Specht at @PRQjournal!. Using new state-level MRP measures & 2007-2020 CES; we find state legislative elections largely shaped by national forces (POTUS approval) rather than state institutions (Gov/state leg).
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