The performance of our Trend Asset Allocation Model has been updated to 30-Jun-2020.Last year: Model 13.6% vs. 60/40 10.2%.Last 2 years: Model 13.6% vs. 60/40 10.7%.Last 3 years: Model 13.0% vs. 60/40 9.7%.Last 5 years: Model 12.2% vs. 60/40 8.6%.

Will the next #Fed chair matter much to policy?.

This will not end well, but when?.#sentiment.

An ungated oldie but goodie: Can a New Bull Begin at a Forward P/E of 22?.

The U.S. stock market is experiencing a bullish trend with some technical warnings, suggesting investors opportunistically buy downside protection in the current relatively low volatility environment

The Fed will likely face pressure to help finance high fiscal deficits, leading to potential changes in monetary policy and the need for investors to reassess their strategies.

(New post) This will not end well, but when?.#sentiment.

(New post) Will the next Fed chair matter much to policy?.

5 of 5 thoughts for the weekend.Growth is back!.So much for the #value to #growth rotation in the US

4 of 5 thoughts for the weekend.Warning: The relative performance of most cyclical industries are rolling over. Yes - semiconductors too!

3 of 5 thoughts for the weekend.I wasn't a recent fan of the copper/gold ratio because of tariff effects. The base/metals gold ratio is a better cyclical indicator, and it's been flat.

2 of 5 thoughts for the weekend.I am old enough to remember the economy being described as resilient. Let the debate begin. Initial claims have been inveersly correlated with #NFP and they wer recently "resilient". were

1 of 5 thoughts for the weekend.It was an extremely ugly #NFP report.July NFP +87K, but if you take out healthcare jobs, job growth was flat for the month.

Here comes our "thoughts for the weekend".An ungated oldie but goodie: Can a New Bull Begin at a Forward P/E of 22?.

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Great historical analysis from @QuantifiablEdgs to keep in mind ahead of the #FOMC announcement tomorrow.

Tariffs: Bark worse than bite?."The coming week will see the bulk of the S&P 500 by weight report results. So far, the preliminary verdict has been relatively benign".

Fresh highs = Bullish tape."It is said that there is nothing more bullish than an all-time high. The $SPX achieved that feat last week when it staged an upside breakout to a fresh high. ".

Keep an eye on how small caps perform after the US-EU trade deal:.Correlation isn't causation, but small caps outperform when trade tensions ease.$RSP $IWM #TradeWar

The U.S. market is experiencing a global recovery with a welcome shift towards value and cyclical stocks, but a potential stall could occur if factor and sector rotation fails.

Q2 earnings show Trump tariffs impact on corporate earnings is relatively benign. Are tariffs' bark worse than their bite?