Market Crash Indicator: 30y:2y Mid-Month Update (Paint-Drying Edition): After December`s 30:2 ratio print finally inked an RSI read over 50, which has been a prior equity crash trigger, we've seen a couple days of consolidation (Read: noise) as the 2yr rate has notched a few

Market Crash Indicator (Gold Standard Edition): The SPX:GDP ratio is Buffet's favorite market valuation metric for a very good reason...while the timing isn't precise given irrationality, solvency et al, it nevertheless provides ample warning to we of the hoi polloi persuasion.

Market Crash Indicator (Consumer Edition): Since 2000, the Consumer discretionary to consumer staples ratio has warned of every $SPX crash and major correction, dropping weeks / months while SPX keeps rising - the ratio is currently flashing red $XLY $XLP

SPX:TLT Correction / Crash Indicator: FWIW Edition: This ratio has been in a rising channel for over 20yrs and is again just touching the overhead resistance channel. Last year's tag on the internal channel rail just below coincided with the sharp Feb 2025 selloff. While not

Market Crash Indicator, DJIA:SPX Edition: If 2000 is an analogue, then the rubber band is stretched and we're right at the breaking point. This chart compares the ratio of DJIA:SPX to SPX dating back to the 2000 crash. As shown, in the years leading up to 2000, SPX outpaced

$NATGAS (Monthly): The widowmaker is finally looking interesting here after that nasty smackdown immediately after hitting the 161.8 target, NATGAS is now at double support in the form of the 61.8 fib and the rising channel from the bounce off the 35yr support line. The action

Market Crash Indicator (Consumer Edition): Since 2000, the Consumer discretionary to consumer staples ratio has warned of every $SPX crash and major correction, dropping weeks / months while SPX keeps rising - the ratio is currently flashing red $XLY $XLP

SPX:TLT Correction / Crash Indicator: FWIW Edition: This ratio has been in a rising channel for over 20yrs and is again just touching the overhead resistance channel. Last year's tag on the internal channel rail just below coincided with the sharp Feb 2025 selloff. While not

Market Crash Indicator, DJIA:SPX Edition: If 2000 is an analogue, then the rubber band is stretched and we're right at the breaking point. This chart compares the ratio of DJIA:SPX to SPX dating back to the 2000 crash. As shown, in the years leading up to 2000, SPX outpaced

BTC (Weekly): After a strong move that reclaimed the 10w MA (blue), BTC remains in deep trouble unless it can muster a channel breakout here and reclaim the 50w MA (red). Otherwise, it's pretty clear the coup has already happened with the inception support failure and this is

BTC (Daily): If you're wondering why BTC halted right here, I've got a busy chart to help decode it...In short, there's a heavy congestion zone of overhead technical resistance, namely fibonacci, channel, and SMAs that are blocking the road for now. As you can see, the

$XLE (Monthly) 12-Year Target Hit: While this is the monthly chart and the candle won't ink for another two weeks, today's action in the S&P Energy Sector saw it hit a fresh all-time-high, which is the exact 161.8 fib target which has been 12 years in the making. If this is a

$DJUA 100yr Chart, Top-Tick Edition: Here's an update version of the monthly DJUA chart I published back in August '25 showing that utilities were bumping up against the 100yr upper-channel resistance...It indeed was the top as it held and is now flirting with more downside as

Utilities $DJUA were rejected today at double-overhead channel resistance today and are fighting to remain above the 200SMA...I'd expect a battle here for the next few days while the bulls and bears duke it out. The stakes are rather high given the targets in either direction:

NDX Top Warning: If you've been wondering why the Mag7's advance halted where it did late last year, here's a little perspective taking: The exact spot NDX reversed was the 161.8 fibonacci target from the index's inception in 1986 all the way to the 2022 ATH. Of course It

Economic Downturn Warning is Flashing Red: Today's Economic data is playing out with an almost identical repeat of the numbers leading up to the 2008 SPX crash. The idea was put out by Eric Basmajian (@EPBResearch) recently, so I wanted to take an independent look and pulled my