Graham Stephan
@GrahamStephan
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Real Estate Investor, Car Enthusiast, 4M+ Subs on YouTube. Newsletter - Insta -
Las Vegas, NV
Joined March 2009
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Hey everyone!
Here's my weekly email recap of all things money – from the stock market to real estate to personal finance – with research and actionable ideas
I'd love for you to join, and it's totally free :)
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The Chinese economy is experiencing a near-complete collapse.
Nearly half a million customers have lost their deposits as the banks lent indiscriminately to housing developers who are now facing cascading defaults.
Here’s the story the Chinese Govt. doesn't want you to know 👇
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$600 Billion: What Lehman Brothers held in assets when they crashed and took the economy with them.
$2800 Billion: What Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank control in AUM. 4.6x more.
Credit Suisse is at a 'Critical Moment' now, says the CEO.
What lies in store for the world?🧵
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The used car market is on the brink of an auto loan collapse that can shake the entire industry.
I am shocked that more people are not talking about this!
We are facing a 2008-ish scenario in the used car market and honestly, it's a disaster waiting to happen.
A 🧵
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When all the tech bros are outperformed by a 92-year old man who doesn't like internet!
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The biggest irony now is that out of all options, the best investment you could have made in 2021 was a 30-year fixed interest mortgage at ~2%.
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Right now is one of the best entry points the stock market has seen in the last 15 years. If you wished you could go back in time and invest in 2009, now would be that opportunity
But, there are over 2,672 index funds to choose from
Here are the top 5 that can make you rich:
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Guys, I have a feeling Warren Buffett might actually know what he is doing!
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The auto industry collapse has just begun and this would be one of the worst times for you to buy a vehicle.
In a normal market (pre-2020), Auto Loan delinquencies hovered at 2 to 3%.
Today that number is exploding with nearly 1 in every 4 loans in default in Washington DC👇
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GPT-4 is here.
Its abilities are mind-blowing – and can make you money: 🧵
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Here's a fun fact:
The CEO of Lucid Motors earned $379 million in 2022.
That is more than the combined pay of the CEOs of Apple, Microsoft, and Google.
And the kicker? -- Lucid only made $608 million in revenue in 2022!
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Ahh, the "free-market" strikes again! Didn't we subsidize its R&D?
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All of this begins with one thing - Real Estate. Chinese are obsessed with Real Estate and 70% of China’s wealth is tied to real estate (twice as high as the US).
Reports are now emerging about real estate Ponzi schemes, Mortgage boycotts, and an unfolding banking crisis
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There is a storm brewing in the housing market.
- Home sales are down 20%
- Mortgage demand is now at a 22-year low
- Even Blackstone has stopped home purchases!
Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist - National Association of Realtors said that we are in a "housing recession" 🧵
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So you've won the $1.6 Billion Powerball Jackpot and now have 10x-ed your friends circle.
Here's how to manage all that money:
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Strap in - The New York Times just published a report on Congress trading stocks and the findings are incredible!
- 97 Congress Members flagged
- 3,700 trades with a potential conflict of interest
- Stock plays with staggering accuracy
It's a big club, and we ain't in it 🧵
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This puts the magnitude of the SVB collapse into context:
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For some context on how crazy the real estate market in China is, the median home price in New York is around 10 times the median annual income, but in Beijing, this can be as high as 25 times the median annual income!
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Chinese citizens prefer to invest in Real Estate as the Chinese Stock Market is notoriously opaque and unreliable.
The Shanghai Composite (similar to our S&P 500) has not yet recovered from its 2008 peak, despite China's GDP growing by nearly 3 times since then!
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The insatiable demand lead to Ponzi schemes where developers pre-sell homes (which are not even built), use the pre-sale money to start more projects, and then collect more pre-sales from new projects. Buyers started a mortgage boycott as the properties have not been completed.
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One of the largest banks in the US completely shut down in the last 36 hours.
Here's what went wrong at Silicon Valley Bank and why it affects your money: 🧵
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If you invested $1,000 with Warren Buffett in 1965, it would have grown to $4.3 million by 2010.
However, if Berkshire had been a hedge fund charging 2 & 20, that $4.3 million would have accrued $300k to the investor with a stunning $4m to the manager.
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Someone just won the $2B Powerball jackpot in California.
Throwback to one of the best Reddit threads I have seen on what to do if you win the Powerball.
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A wild theory: Citadel routes order flow for
#Robinhood
. Citadel 'invested' BILLIONS into Melvin Capital, who lost BILLIONS shorting GameStop. By halting GameStop, they slow the loss for Melvin Capital. How is this not conflict of interest?
In light of current market volatility, we are restricting transactions for certain securities to position closing only, including $AMC and $GME. Read more here.
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@elonmusk
How will you protect against impersonators who pay $8/month for a similar username that appears indistinguishable from the real person? Especially if they both have blue check marks?
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The crisis spread to banks, as they had loaned out depositors’ money to developers who were now defaulting on payments.
As frozen deposits mounted and protests erupted all over China, investigations revealed critical systemic issues
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I saw a lot of hot takes on this:
In my view, you must absolutely spend on things and experiences that bring you joy. At the same time, you should be aware of its long-term impact.
This example just helps you make a conscious decision!
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During the Super Bowl, an owner of 95 AirBNBs in Phoenix expected to rent out all his properties at $1,200 a night.
After dropping his price to $500, 55% of his properties were still vacant. Changing times?
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A lot of research went into this as I usually don't cover events outside the U.S. If you found it insightful, please share it by retweeting the first tweet!
The Chinese economy is experiencing a near-complete collapse.
Nearly half a million customers have lost their deposits as the banks lent indiscriminately to housing developers who are now facing cascading defaults.
Here’s the story the Chinese Govt. doesn't want you to know 👇
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30-year mortgage rates have just crossed 7%!
For some context on how bad this is, for a $500,000 mortgage, you end up paying nearly $439,000 more over 30 years as the interest rate increases from 3% to 7%.
That's around 90% of the total mortgage value!🤯
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The government has agreed to pay up to $15,000 dollars for lost deposits, but only if the banks weren't involved in “non-compliant” transactions.
The government’s strategy for overleveraged properties is to lend more money to finish them and pretend that everything is fine.
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The best way to create long term wealth is to Dollar Cost Average into an Index fund.
It's boring but you'll beat almost everyone who tries something else.
Here are the top 5 index funds to invest in 2023:
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For starters, during the covid crisis, the government had lowered the 10% limit on assets that banks had to keep in cash and investigations revealed corrupt practices in the banks, some of which were taken over by criminal gangs who transferred the deposits outside the country
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With reports suggesting that over 400,000 customers have fallen victim to such activities, public trust in the banking system plummeted and the government stepped in to avoid bank runs and liquidity crunches. But their strategies seem, at best, questionable.
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Whether these strategies can revive investor confidence or is simply delaying the inevitable remains to be seen, but China is unlikely to meet its targeted 5.5% GDP growth rate, and right now, youth unemployment is at nearly 20%!
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The book Warren Buffett has recommended the most is "The Intelligent Investor" by Ben Graham.
Here are 10 timeless principles from the book that you can use to invest better:
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"If you are even a slightly above-average investor who spends less than they earn, over a lifetime, you cannot help but get rich if you are patient."
- Warren Buffett
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As the semiconductor shortages showed us, events across the world can have serious consequences back home. Chinese companies have substantial investments in US equities and might sell them during a crisis. This can tilt the investor sentiment to fear and trigger selloff
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If you were to buy a $1 Million home, you would have to
• Put $200,000 down
• Take on a mortgage of $5,600
• Pay another $1,000 in property taxes, insurance, and maintenance
A grand total of $6,600 per month.
Or you could just rent an identical house for $3,900.
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Short-term investors should keep an eye out for news from China. The events and its impacts are covered in more detail in my newsletter, so don’t forget to subscribe there!
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The best way to create long-term wealth is to Dollar Cost Average into an Index fund.
It's boring but you'll beat almost everyone who tries something else.
Here are the top 5 index funds to invest in 2024:
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Here's a simple way to avoid Government shutdowns:
You just pass a law that says every time there is a Govt. shutdown, all sitting members of Congress are ineligible for reelection.
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The average cost of a family's annual health insurance increased from $6,000 in 2000 to $21,000 in 2022.
On totally unrelated news, UnitedHealth is up 4,000% since 2000.
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State of current economy:
- Egg prices are up 70% in just the last 1 year
- Mortgage rate is at 7%
- Gas prices up 37% since 2020
- Credit card debt is at an all-time high
- Fastest rising interest rates in history
What did I miss?
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There is a storm brewing in the housing market.
Single-family home sales are imploding and housing just had its largest MoM drop in a decade!
CA and TX markets have seen a 15% drop in 6 months and consumer confidence is now at the 2008 crisis level.
Here's what's going on🧵
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Housing is less affordable now than during the peak of the 2007 housing bubble!
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It's official: After a decade of unstoppable growth, the housing market has begun to fall.
The escalating Mortgage rates (Now over 7%!) and increasing inventory have caused home sales to go down nearly 20% YoY.
80% of the U.S is about to be affected🧵
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I can 100% guarantee you that the best thing you can do for your mental health is to have 6-months of emergency savings!
All other investments can wait till you build this.
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Friendly reminder that just because it's on sale, doesn't mean you need it!
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Zuckerberg has been selling $9 million worth of Meta shares every day for the last few weeks.
If he continues this trend, it will take him more than 52 years to completely sell his stake!
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Fed - We have successfully cooled the housing market!
Everyone else - Yes, but at what cost🥲?
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Friendly reminder that you most probably don't 'need' that new iPhone!
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1 day after Silicon Valley Bank's collapse.
These are the companies – and countries – that have been hit, and how they are reacting:🧵
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Financial independence isn't a choice any more - It's a necessity.
Interest rates are unpredictable, real wages are falling, and inflation keeps rising.
But you can go from 0 in savings to $1M in 10 years: By focusing on what you can control.
Here's a step-by-step guide 👇🧵
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When I see someone buy a $5 coffee and $10 avocado toast
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Pro tip - If Warren Buffet doesn't know how the stock price of company is going to trend, its unlikely that you would!
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The median U.S. household net worth is $121,700. But, the difference between the net worth of homeowners versus renters is staggering.
Homeowners in the U.S. had a median net worth of $255,000, while renters had a net worth of just $6,300. That’s a difference of 40x!
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Me after I meet someone who locked in a 2% mortgage.
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KPMG predicts that used car prices can drop 30% as more supplies hit the market and Ally Financial predicts a 20% drop.
The timing is a bit uncertain but it looks like it's going to unravel in the next 12-18 months.
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Incredible power of stock splits and dividend reinvestment.
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Both Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank are designated as systemically important financial institutions (SIFI): i.e. they are "too big to fail".
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Folks, please don't do this - Cars are massively depreciating assets.
A $50k car would only be worth $25K after 5 years. On this, you would have paid $7K as interest.
Essentially you would be down $32K by the time you trade in after 5 years!
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I asked "What are the best finance and investing podcasts?"
I received 140+ replies.
Here are the top 15 picks:
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Jack Byrne, the chairman of Geico, was golfing with friends when he made a bet: He would pay $10,000 to anybody who hit a hole-in-one.
They just had to pay an $11 "premium".
Every investor there reached into their wallets except one: Warren Buffett. 🧵
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🚨 Unbelievable 🚨
A Wall Street Journal report shows thousands of Federal officials trading stocks in companies they oversee.
- More than 2,600 officials flagged at EPA, FTC, DOD, etc.
- Precise trades made right before enforcement actions!
The game is rigged👇
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Inflation from 1985: 178%
Costco hot dog price increase: 0%
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Meta stock is now down more than Bitcoin in 2022!
$META: -62%
$BTC: -57%
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For some context on how bad this is, for a $500,000 mortgage, you end up paying nearly $324,000 more over 30 years as the interest rate increases from 3% to 6%.
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Well, that blew up. I really don't understand the outrage - It's not like £ is worth much these days :P
Jokes apart, creating passive income and financial independence is something that's really close to my heart. Here are some practical ways to do it
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Is recession canceled? - Shipping costs are now down to pre-pandemic levels!
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The average 75-year-old today is 77% wealthier than the average 75-year-old 30 years ago.
But the average 35-year-old is 19% poorer.
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Hey
@SusanWojcicki
It would be incredible if creators could upload more than one thumbnail on YouTube, so The algorithm can then A/B test which one has a higher click through rate. I bet this would help drive way more engagement, since thumbnails could be tested in real time.
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Reminder that you should always have an emergency fund that can cover 3-6 months of your living expenses!
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The average 75-year-old today is 77% wealthier than the average 75-year-old 30 years ago; the average 35-year-old is 19% poorer.
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You can see how crazy this is in the latest auto loan consumer reports.
- 25 to 50% of the loans were given to customers who might not be able to repay it
- Lenders only verified the source of income and employment only 4% of the time
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If you think your job is tough, imagine your company losing $100 billion because your AI bot made a mistake!
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Incredible - $TSLA has now dropped more than 60% just this year!
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The average investor is terrible at investing long-term. Even 3-Month Treasury Bills outperformed them.
The thing is, great investing choices can be offset - by a few common mistakes.
Here's how you can avoid making the same mistakes👇
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When buyers purchase a car, a vast majority (~85%) are financed. The problem is that, unlike real estate, auto loans are not subject to strict underwriting requirements allowing almost anyone to get one.
Buyers with lower credit scores were funnelled into loans with 2x interest!
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Unless gamers vote with their wallets, microtransactions aren't going away.
71% of EA's revenue came from Live Services. Game sales didn't even make half of their revenue!
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Just recently, Equifax reported that 8.5% of subprime borrowers defaulted on their car loans - the second-highest on record!
WSJ also found that more subprime borrowers have started missing out on payments as rising inflation made them choose between essentials & auto loans.
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If you were to buy a $1 Million home, you would have to
• Put $200,000 down
• Take on a mortgage of $5,600
• Pay another $1,000 in property taxes, insurance, and maintenance
A grand total of $6,600 per month.
Or you could just rent an identical house for $3,900.
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If that's not crazy enough, as of now, 5% of Auto Loans are behind payments and nearly half of them are underwater!
Just like how the housing market collapsed from the loan crisis in 2008, the same thing is said to be starting to happen in the Auto Loan market.
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