GlassHouse Research initiates coverage of Soho House & Co, $SHCO, with a target price of $0.
We publish our short thesis in our 31-page report titled Soho House & Co: A Company Facing an Existntial Crisis.
A broken business model, terrible accounting, mounting debt, and poor
GlassHouse Research publishes our 30-page report on Catalent, Inc. $CTLT. A deteriorating company propped up with accounting gimmicks. Full-report is below.
WSB is not a “decentralized hedge fund”
@chamath
. No one on WSB will be there to pay off loans taken out for $GME or $AMC.
Real advice: Look out for yourself and do what’s best for you. No one is coming to save you from your losses. Their is no “community”that will help.
These are college students using money they don’t have to buy stock that will be worthless in a couple of weeks based on this sense of false comradery.
Reading their stories on WSB is sad and they keep “holding” because losers keep mashing “diamond hands” on the keyboard.
Tomorrow morning we will release our first short report of 2024 on a company we believe is an eventual $0.
A broken business model, suspect accounting, heavy debt, and extremely poor internal controls will all be material headwinds for the company going forward.
We hope our
Tomorrow morning, we release our first and best short idea of 2023.
This company is plagued by issues in multiple aspects, including a troubled industry, management problems, a questionable Board of Directors, concerns with its accountants, and internal control challenges.
We
Soho House rejects our report, says it has inaccuracies/errors, but does not list anything.
The company also expects growth in its made-up metric Adjusted EBITDA, but says nothing about free-cash-flow or GAAP EPS. So, there you have it, more years of actual losses.
If they go
GlassHouse Research publishes our 33-page report titled Granite Construction: Blueprint for Disaster.
A company with dubious accounting coupled with a rocky history.
Full-report is below. $GVA
In a matter of weeks, Catalent went from S&P darling to new 52 week lows. How we got here…
· The company preannounces "productivity issues and higher than expected costs" during the Q3 period.
· Abruptly the CFO leaves in the middle of buyout negotiations.
· Danaher
Our analysts like to use the Altman Z-score when determining how likely it is for bankruptcy to occur.
$SHCO lies near the bottom of the "danger zone" where bankruptcy is probable.
Tomorrow morning, GlassHouse will be releasing our highest conviction short ever found. Materially lowered guidance, impairments/write-offs, restatements and fines from the SEC are all on the table for this accounting mess of a company. We hope our readers will enjoy.
This dumpster fire of a company Catalent continues to get worse by the minute. Internal controls are a mess over here. After saying no revisions in each of the last earnings calls. The company revises its past financials downwards again.
$CTLT earnings beat last quarter? J/K,
Soho went public under the JOBS Act in 2021, where companies could go public under relaxed reporting and accounting rules.
We see a plethora of accounting concerns including a pull forward of 20 years’ worth initiation fee revenue.
Soho House $SHCO previously reported they would release Q4 earnings on March 6th in a response to our short report.
Now they are delaying until March 15 (no 8K)…problem with auditors???
@HindenburgRes
Not defending $TIO at all, but WRT to the increase in AR to $356.7m from $11.5m, you would expect a decrease on the CF statement (from net income) as cash has not been collected yet.
All though, I do agree that the divergence of $345m to $150.3m is concerning.
It will never end for these $BBBY bagholders haunting their lives for eternity.
RC pumps/dumps on them
Under $1
Declaring bankruptcy
Now delisting
Doesn’t matter.
@John_Hempton
@Keubiko
@kashyap286
Every one of your data points used here has been misinterpreted beyond belief.
All your charts depict improving cash flow/ar/inv metrics over the last 4 periods to normalized levels. Such a bad take.
We plan to fully analyze Soho House after its 10K is released. As of today, $SHCO has still not disclosed any inaccuracies in our initial report. In fact, based the recent results, here is everything that we were prescient on:
• Consistent with our thesis, the company
Consistent with our prior thesis, Catalent $CTLT provided a business update detailing "productivity issues and higher than expected costs"
Further corroborating our thesis CFO Thomas Castellano leaves ubruptly with CTLT president Ricky Hopson taking over in the interim.
Soho House has never been profitable in its 28-year history. Since going public, they have been touting their "adjusted EBITDA" metric, which they curiously report two of.
We take issue with many of their "adjusted" exclusions as normal operating expenses.
GlassHouse Research publishes our 39-page report on Columbia Sportswear $COLM. Based on our research, we set a target price of $45.29, representing a 51% downside. Full-report is below.
Had an amazing time guest speaking at Harvard Business School discussing our Catalent short (still no $CTLT 10K or 10Q filings)
We are happy to be collaborating with the school with new ideas/case studies in the future.
GlassHouse Research publishes our 35-page report on Cubic Corporation $CUB. Based on our research, we set a target price of $17.80, representing a 54% downside target. Full-report is below.
@John_Hempton
@Ehpe741
Even then it will not set in… the worst part is all the $BBBY bag holders have learned nothing from this and will continue to blame everyone else for their stupidity.
As a short seller, let me say this is bullshit if r/WSB is banned from Reddit/discord. Soon your internet provider will ban what sites you go to.
Convenient this happens when retail is finally screwing over Wall Street. Unbelievable.
Soho also introduced "House Introduction Credits" after IPOing in 2021. This allowed the company to recognize all its initiation fee revenue all at once circumventing its conservative accounting rules.
The company pulled forward 20 years' worth of this revenue and loses out on
Our short thesis on Catalent Inc $CTLT is coming to fruition with the company delaying earnings today. However we still believe a heighten risk of restatement now remains.
Even being down 26% today, we believe there is more downside to come. Debt covenants will also need to be
Recently, Soho House stopped reporting retention data after the numbers started to turn south. This coupled with the company being accused of overcrowding and terrible service.
GlassHouse Research publishes our 35-page report on the inept Omnicell, Inc. $OMCL. Based on our research, we set a target price of $35.50, representing a 59% downside target. Full-report is below.
Their critique of our report of Catalent $CTLT was suspect at best. Hopefully they can work on their "research" in the future.
Unfortunately there is a jealously on the short side where "fiatlux" and Cohodes get upset when others in the space do well.
GlassHouse Research publishes our 44-page report on the dysfunctional Natus Medical Inc., $BABY. Based on our research, we set a target price of $9.80, representing a 70% downside target. Full-report is below.
We are excited to present only our second idea of the year at this virtual conference. We will release our short idea that is actionable and has low short interest on Thursday morning.
What are you doing this Thursday?
Want to hear four (4) exclusive short ideas from people who have moved the market before with their calls?
Register here:
Evil short sellers/hedge funds, selling ladders, diamond hands, sticking it to Wall Street...
All was code in the end for a massive organized pump and dump.
Nothing new under the sun.
People cheering for a world without short sellers might want to be careful what they wish for.
Jim is one of the best while keeping humble at the same time. Rarity these days. I owe you a lunch friend.
For those of you asking why I don’t address some of my harshest critics directly on this harmonious site, please understand that I give those with clear signs of mental illness wide berth, and you should too.
After reaching 5,000 followers today, we want to thank all of our readers as we consider it to be a great honor/milestone.
We will continue to search for fraudulent accounting companies in these turbulent times and hope to bring many of these nefarious actions to light.
Performance of our last 4 short publications. Make sure to subscribe on our website for best in class short ideas! We believe our Granite and Catalent shorts are still actionable and have much more room to fall.
Any tips feel free to DM or reach out on
Last week, GlassHouse published our short idea regarding Columbia Sportswear.
The stock is down near 15% currently, but we believe this is just the beginning as the brand fades away in structural decline similar to Under Armour.
$COLM
Soho's main shareholder, Ron Burkle, upset that public investors are concerned with trivial things like "profits and free-cash-flow".
$SHCO revenues decelerated to 7.5% YOY in Q4 and discussed new target house reductions on the call.
Looking thru $MSFT K interesting to see a $3.7 billion tailwind as a result of lengthening useful life of assets.
At least mgmt brought it up in the earnings call. 9 out of 10 mgmt never says anything about changes in estimates.
We are excited to present on our target retailer company tomorrow morning.
Based on the magnitude of accounting red flags uncovered, this will be undoubtedly be our highest conviction name.
@donutphilosophy
@stoolpresidente
@chamath
I never called anyone stupid from WSB. There is definitely some research on there that rivals the best of them.
But their rallying cry of community and diamond hands gives novice investors a false sense of security. They will get blown out when this eventually drops under $20.
Catalent misses 15 day extension period after filing a 12b-25 form on Aug 30th.
The newly appointed CFO believed the company would be able to file in time based on the last earnings call. Financials at $CTLT definitely cannot be relied upon.
How Tutor Perini $TPC is not a 0 yet is beyond our comprehension. Here is how their CEO Ronald Tutor ended their last earnings call when discussing not getting paid by customers for their shoddy work...
GlassHouse Research publishes an initiation report on Aerojet Rocketdyne $AJRD with a 53% downside target. Full-report is below.
This is based on a myriad of red flags regarding its PoC accounting and material drawdown of key reserves. $AJRD
Good day for our shorts…
Also 50 days since Catalent was supposed to file its 10-K. Internal controls at this company are a mess and they are not out of the woods by any means.
$CTLT $GVA
No one finds it peculiar at all that a group of 7 fed reserve members have this much effect on the markets? Literally trillions at stake when they get in a room to decide.
We all knew it had an impact, but todays movement (based on future fed decision) is insane.
We are 100% still in our short position at Columbia $COLM. We never put much stock into first day action as we know it takes time to read through our 39 page report.
We put stock in numbers/data. The accounting is undeniable at $COLM.
Mercury's cash consumption abysmal for FY2022. Consistent w/thesis, deteriorating unbilleds, inventories, deferred revs, and on top of all that, they continue to stiff suppliers to try and conserve cash.
@CitronResearch
Fraud would be rampant if not for short sellers. Too much incentive on the long side to keep trash companies afloat.
Take a look at the IPO/SPAC markets. 100% broken with FAs incentivized to promote garbage to retail.
NuVasive $NUVA names new CEO as Greg Lucier abruptly resigns. Stock is down 7% on news. Should be an interesting Q3 report. Still a conviction short for us.
Since our report was published in late 2016, Electronics for Imaging $EFII missed earnings estimates in 6 straight Qs, restated earnings with material weaknesses and now their long-tenured CEO has stepped down today.
Every analyst had a buy rating on EFI when we published.
@RodBoydILM
He’s a jealous mountebank that only thinks he can come up with short ideas.
Now the only people that will give him the time of day are the “apes” and they already have started to turn on him.
How do these degenerates keep getting this kind of money?
Doesn’t look like $SHOP will hit strike here. Unbelievable the roller coaster this poster had these last two weeks.
NuVasive $NUVA gets a new CFO (Matthew Harbaugh) today from Mallinckrodt! As bad as $NUVA's accounting is maybe Mr. Harbaugh can show $NUVA how to get their stock price down to $3 in under two years.
"If Elon just listens to me for 5 minutes, I could totally could fix the whole situation," Ross Gerber says as he attempts to use new SEC rules to land a spot on Tesla’s board of directors.
We believe j2 Global $JCOM could cease to exist and no customers would really care that their service was gone. These are our favorite types of shorts where mgmt branches out into new industries to save a dying company.
Our favorite short “tell” is use of egregious adjusted or non-GAAP exclusions.
Once we see that the C-Suite is willing to cheat here, they are willing to cheat in other areas of the business as well based on our experience.
#lifeofashortseller
One of our highest conviction shorts Tutor Perini $TPC finally breakdown amidst its accounting woes. Nearing a multi-year low, if this breaks through $13, lookout below. This company makes no material FCF and is headed for the graveyard.