Bleecker Street is short United Therapeutics and long Liquidia. $UTHR and $LQDA: Trading Places. Link:

We believe there is a lot to be excited about here, between continued superior tolerability of Yutrepia in the ASCENT study for PH-ILD to the next-gen formulation L606. In the words of $LQDA management, "we're just getting started.” $UTHR.

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$LQDA has achieved "rapid" uptake among PAH and PH-ILD centers of excellence and secured broad payor adoption for Yutrepia. We believe Yutrepia new starts and conversions will only accelerate, driving profitability and massive market share gains for $LQDA - and away from $UTHR.

This morning, $LQDA reported a very strong start to its Yutrepia rollout, with 900+ scripts in 550+ patients. These results confirm adoption trends we observed in our July physician survey. Numerous patients switched from Tyvaso $UTHR and oral drugs, surprising even $LQDA execs.

And to show just how little effort went into this research, here's the analyst reading their own pie chart wrong. It's 3/5, not 2/5: happy to give you that one, Andreas. $LQDA $UTHR

71% were able to navigate insurance hurdles. In our survey, key prescribers were largely positive or neutral, saying insurance interactions were on par with prescribing Tyvaso, without many issues. We view this as a credit to the $LQDA team. $UTHR

81% viewed titratability as "important" or "somewhat important", but a contradictory addendum inserted in the middle survey response allows the analyst to assert titrability is not enough to cause switches. Our data shows Yutrepia drives both switches and new scripts. $LQDA $UTHR

Furthermore, the survey showed that 33% of prescribers prefer Yutrepia outright, while another 29% plan to switch patients to Yutrepia for its titratability. The analyst chose to highlight the 19% defaulting to Tyvaso, possibly the least remarkable statistic here. $LQDA $UTHR

It seems the analyst was keen to shoehorn results into their Underperform rating. This led to such puzzling choices as interpreting 52% of respondents' desire to prescribe Yutrepia now or in the next month, or 76% within the next 3 months, as a sign of a slow rollout. $LQDA $UTHR

The analyst appears to have avoided centers of excellence where PAH and PH-ILD are best treated and where $LQDA is driving adoption. We spoke to a number of such centers, and they are excited about Yutrepia. $UTHR.

Oppenheimer's survey was exceedingly small with few key Tyvaso prescribers in it. It had ~39 Tyvaso scripts per doc, vs. ~110 in our survey, for a total of ~810 prostacyclin scripts vs. 1,972 in ours. The analyst's conclusions range from slanted to flat-out incorrect. $LQDA $UTHR

Oppenheimer put out a $LQDA physician survey that was riddled with errors of interpretation and fact. It was also less than half the size of the one we conducted. Our survey summary below for reference. $UTHR

We think sell-side and buy-side expectations on the Yutrepia rollout are too low. Doctors indicated to us they expect Yutrepia to take market share much more quickly than analysts estimate. Meanwhile, $UTHR insiders continue to dump shares. We are short $UTHR and long $LQDA.

We believe the next wave of inhaled therapies will eat further into $UTHR Tyvaso sales, with clinical-stage products such as Insmed's TPIP and $LQDA LQ606 offering 1x daily and 2x daily dosing, respectively. $UTHR's 1x daily treatment was only preclinical as of April 2025.

Doctors told us Yutrepia's superior side effect profile will hurt $UTHR most in its fast-growing PH-ILD indication. We believe this leaves $UTHR with no good way to replace sales lost to $LQDA, as the company's pipeline, such as an additional indication for Tyvaso, appears weak.

Prescriber expectations for $LQDA were high: on average, they estimated that Yutrepia would seize 50% market share, with several ranking Yutrepia first choice due to better tolerability. Our survey showed broad adoption, with Yutrepia gains in new scripts and $UTHR switchers.

Our survey indicates $LQDA is picking up patients at a clip we believe will make it profitable by year-end, with ~30% mkt share by 2026. Meanwhile, we estimate at this pace, $UTHR loses 11% of Tyvaso sales by YE 2026, with total sales dropping 3% and EPS declining 22% 2024-2026.

We recently conducted a survey of 18 Tyvaso prescribers to ascertain whether Yutrepia was gaining market share and how the $LQDA launch was going, the results of which suggest Yutrepia has already taken 5% market share from $UTHR within two months of launch.

Now it is a story of $LQDA, a $1.7B market cap, vying for patients against an incumbent that has not experienced competition in this segment. This is a highly profitable market with $1.9B in annual sales, and Yutrepia has a drug that we understand is better tolerated.

After five years of $UTHR fighting endless, seemingly anti-competitive legal battles, $UTHR's legal challenges appear to have largely run out. $LQDA was finally able to launch Yutrepia in June.

$UTHR is a $13 billion commercial stage pharmaceutical company with the majority of revenue coming from a single product, Tyvaso. $UTHR has been desperately trying to protect its golden goose to keep the competing $LQDA treatment, Yutrepia, off the pulmonary hypertension market.