Gert van Lagen
@GertvanLagen
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MSc Systems and Control | 🇳🇱 | Technical Analyst | NFA | Strate𝔾 | |
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1/2 $BTC Bullmarket 2019-2022 following textbook precision.
Wave 5 should peak in the low 170K's against the upper channel line
{Src: ELLIOTT WAVE PRINICPLE key to market behavior by Frost and Prechter p.85.}
#Elliottwave
#Bitcoin
#BullMarket
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$BTC still in the Bull Market?
No Yes Yes, and bottomed
👇 👇 👇
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1/2 $BTC
#Elliott
wave analysis on 10 year
#supercycle
:
0-I: 1st impulse wave <- 2012-2013
I-II: 1st correction wave <- 2014
II-III: 2nd impulse wave <- 2015-2017
III-IV: 2nd correction wave <- 2018
IV-V: 3rd impulse wave <- 2019-2021
#Bitcoin
#BTC
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What happened last time the FED came up with a lot of subsequent rate hikes after being zero for a long time?
$BTC entered the 2017 bullmarket.
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12 spot
#Bitcoin
ETFs are no way priced in.
Don’t think it will be a sell-the-news event, rather an all-in-before-the-news event.
Q1-2024 will most likely contain one of the strongest vertical rally’s for crypto and stocks ever 🚀🚀🚀💫
If the 5th wave indeed plays out like…
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$BTC [1D]: potential running flat correction in play.
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The Terra Luna crash has seen the Luna circulating supply increase from a supply of 345 million to almost 6.5 trillion Luna.
This means for $Luna to reach $1 it will need to grow a marketcap 13 times as large as BTC’s.
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Altseason starts.
Strong successful retest of the 0.618 fib level this week.
I see alts cumulatively reach a 2.3 trillion market cap at the 1.618 bear market extension, while $BTC runs for ~4 trillion at $200k.
All within weeks from now.
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$BTC [1W] - Update on parabolic curve to $200k, before the halving.
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$BTC [1M] has broken the 78.6% Fibonacci level for the first time ever pre-halving.
A pre-halving parabolic move to the $200k zone seems inevitable at this point.
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$BTC [3D] - Parabolic move to reach ~$220k pre-halving remains intact.
Currently wave 3 of ④-⑤ has started, which is likely to be the most vertical rally in this blow-off phase.
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$BTC [1W] - Breaks above the neckline of this 2-year+ Head and Shoulders Bottom.
Target: $150,000
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$BTC has broken the 1.618 extension of the 2018 bear market.
Previous two cycles when this happened, price topped within 2-3 months at the 2.272 extension.
The 2.272 extension currently lies at $207k.
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Quantitative Easing has started...🧨
The Federal Reserve has added $0.3T (300 billion USD) in assets to its balance over the last week.
Last and only time they added a larger amount over a single week ($0.5T) was shortly after the COVID dip (March 2020) --> $BTC 15X'd within…
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$BTC [1W]: Clean hit of the bottom of this rising channel.
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$BTC - the parabolic move is only starting.
Currently the 0.786 line of W1 is being tested confluent with the weekly SMA 200.
Next up: W3
#Bitcoin2023
#BTC
#BullMarket
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1/4 $BTC [1W] - Price continues its parabolic trajectory since Nov-22 and remains on track to hit $200k rather soon.
Invalidation: $32k
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$BTC [3D] - Parabola is fully intact to reach ~$220k pre-halving.
Price is starting subsubwave 3 of subwave 3 of wave ④-⑤
Invalidation of specific ④-⑤ count: drop below $62.3k
#Bitcoin
#BlowOffTop
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$BTC has broken the 1.618 extension of the 2018 bear market at $62k, and this week tested it successfully for support. Previous two cycles when this happened, price topped within 2-3 months at the 2.272 extension. The 2.272 extension currently lies at $207k.
Comparing the…
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Pre-halving blowofftop materializes quickly.
$200k is only 2.8x away.
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BTC bull market is likely not going to extend into 2022.
Alts likely will, say 10-20 days.
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#Bitcoin
- Update Parabolic Curve Step-Like Formation
Price far above ✖️, on it's way to Base 4
Elliottwave:
W1: B1 to B3 (1-2-3-4-5 green)
W2: B3 (Running Flat ABC)
W3: B3 to B4
W4: B4 (Likely sharp)
W5: B4 to SELL POINT
Invalidation: < B3
#blowofftop
🚀
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#Bitcoin
- Update Parabolic Curve Step-Like Formation
Price far above ✖️and on it's way to Base 4
Elliottwave:
W1: B1 to B3
W2: B3 (Flat)
W3: B3 to B4
W4: B4 (Likely sharp)
W5: B4 to SELL POINT
Invalidation: drop below B3
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Pre-halving parabola remains intact, invalidation 32k (drop into Base 3)
🎯 Price has doubled after bouncing from the Base 3 bottom, i.e. $24.8k --> $49k.
Have we arrived at Base 4? From an EW-perspective it's more likely this is an intermediate correction, wave 3 is in most…
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$BTC is in the final phase of wave (5) within ⑤.
The final part of such a blow-off wave was always under an angle of 81°.
Elliottwave channeling method:
Trendline through ① and ③ to project ⑤ under an angle of 81° yields a value of ~$220k within the next ~5000 blocks.…
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1/5🧵- BITCOIN ELLIOTTWAVE COUNT
I: 1st impulse containg subwaves 1-5
II: 1st correction (ABC)
III: 2nd impulse containing subwaves 1-5, where 3 contains subsubwaves i-v
IV: 2nd correction (ABC)
V: 3rd Impulse containing subwave 1-4
Currently at subwave 5 of V -> ~$200k
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$BTC is ready to blast through $100k.
Broke out of this bullish pennant on the daily chart, retested it successfully and is ready to send price higher now.
Get seated.
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It's my birthday, hope I get some nice green candle cake🥳
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$BTC [6h]: downtrend since 69k is broken and now being tested for support.
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$BTC's price action since 2013 ATH:
1. Bear market
2. Forms H&S Bottom, Head tests 200-week SMA
3. Breaks above neckline
4. Retests neckline for a few months
5. Breaks ATH
6. Blows off
REPEAT
Currently at 4🚨
#Bitcoin
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PARABOLIC CURVE - Update
#BTC
has formed 3 subsequent bases since Q4/22.
B1-B3: 1st impulse (5) and correction (B3, ABC, flat) of blow-off.
Once B3 is final, an impulsive bust to the 60k region is to be expected (W3, 5).
B4=W4: 2nd correction (ABC, sharp).
Then W5 to SP.
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$BTC [1W]: performing better than expected so far.
The trend is your friend, always.
#BullMarket
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1/2 $BTC - Wave 5 of ⑤ starts when an ATH gets printed.
That's the blow-off wave of the blow-off wave of the blow-off wave of the supermacro first wave since inception in 2009, see 2/2.
In other words it's the culmination of the first supermacro bullmarket of $BTC.
Yes,…
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$BTC [1W]
Elliottwave-count parabolic move to $200k before halving.
Invalidation: drop to $31.8k
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$BTC [2D] - Accumulation in play:
+ Continuous Weakness Trading Range;
+ Descending Wedge
Compare yellow wedges between the Wyckoff resistance/support ranges in the chart below.
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$BTC [1W] - Elliottwave impulse 2019-2023
Wave 1 - Impulse
Wave 2 - Correction, Sharp Zigzag
Wave 3 - Impulse , momentum
Wave 4 - Correction, Expanded Flat
Wave 5 - Impulse, Blow-off
Target Wave 5: 170-200k
#Bitcoin
#BullMarket
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BTC [1W] - Update on parabolic move since EOY-22.
Weekly candle turns green again, structure fully intact to reach $200k before the halving.
Have you been shaken out?
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When will $ADA flip $ETH in terms of market capitalization, in 2022 or in 2023?
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$BTC [1W]:
#Elliottwave
channeling method shows 200k+ is possible within months.
✅Macro 3-4 retraced to the terminus of the 3-4 wave within Macro 2-3 wave (dashed line)
✅1-2 SHARP
✅3-4 FLAT
source: Elliott Wave Principle Key to Market Behavior by Frost and Prechter.
#BTC
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$BTC [1D] - In the bigger picture a flat correction as 3-4(yellow) is common:
0-1: 1st impulse
1-2: 1st correction (sharp)
2-3: 2nd major impulse
3-4: 2nd correction (flat)
4-5: 3rd impulse
#Elliottwave
#update
#BTC
#BullMarket
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$XRP [1W]: possible scenario for Vth wave $XRP.
Main extension target lies at ~$9, around the middle line of the key white channel price is ranging within since 2013.
~$9 is the 1.618 extension of the blue 1-2 and the 0.618 extension of the yellow III-wave.
#Ripple
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Not a parabolic move before the halving in April-24 would be unprecedented.
The green 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci zone has already been flipped to support after a wick to 0.786 and successful subsequent test of 0.618.
Historically always a parabolic move followed DIRECTLY.
#Bitcoin
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While $BTC is consolidating just below previous ATH (blue horizontal), $ETH is closing the gap to its own ATH.
All other altcoins together are gearing up as well, but still have the largest sprint to make.
Patience is key.
In the mean time stocks are already blowing off.
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Legitimate road to a 1 million $BTC.
+ Respecting the renowned stock-to-flow model from
@100trillionUSD
+ Continuation of ABC bear markets and impulse wave bull markets (
#Elliotwave
)
+Red triangle by
@MatthewHyland_
#Bitcoin
#BTC
#S2F
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1/2
#Bitcoin
2009-2028 on symlog scale.
Key:
when BTC breaks into the green zone after bouncing from the lower black pitchfan trendline, a parabolic surge follows. I've highlighted the past occurrences in red.
🔜$180-$200k before the halving seems next
#sellthehalving
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$ADA [1W]: Still on track to hit $22 end of year.
On shortterm it is important to hold the lower blue trendline.
Live chart:
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If $BTC prints an ATH, wave ④-⑤ is about to start.
Until then, it remains unsure whether this bounce is part of a larger and flat correction or that it's final already.
The 3 subwaves down from ③ show that a sharp correction is the least likely going forward, because a zigzag…
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#SP500
[1M] - The financial markets will likely not collapse just yet:
+ Top to be expected at the yellow signal line -> previous touches in 1929 and 2000 after which a recession followed;
+ Two Elliottwave counts included that both point to a steep correction in the near future.
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#Bitcoin
tries to escape the gravity of this 2.25-year descending channel, after a 3-months struggle to break it.
Exciting times ahead!🚀
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$BTC [1W] - Update
$BTC has pumped since the test to the top of the light yellow channel and is forming a small bullish pennant just below it (blue).
The parabola is fully intact and targets:
+ $98k @ 1.236
+ $128k @ 1.414
+ $174k @ 1.618
#BullMarket
…
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$BTC: The Entity-Adjusted Dormancy Flow indicator has signalled a macro higher low (hit the green band deeply);
Historically every time this happened a macro higher low was printed after which price never fell below it EVER.
Opportunity.
#BullMarket
#Bitcoin
#BTC
#BULLISH
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$BTC [1D]: Potential form of incoming super macro blowoff top I’m expecting.
The implications of the 1-2 leading diagonal are this severe.
On the way up it’ll be important to analyze the actual price waves, to assess whether price has had its five waves already or not.
#Btc
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#Bitcoin
- Ready for wave ⑤?
Validation: break above $74k.
Invalidation: break below $60.7k
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$BTC always pumped pre-halving to the upper blue trendline.
Each touch of the upper trendline was by a 5th subwave, also known as a blow-off top.
The cycle is finalizing, not starting here, most likely in style with a moonshot straight to ~$200k.
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$BTC [2W] vs $GOOG [1W]
What if $BTC's wave up since 2012 starts to correct like $GOOG did during the previous recession of 2008?
$BTC could see sub $3000 technically...
FIRST blow-off top needed to complete last primary 4-5 wave, i.e. (4)-(5).
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Many are tragically failing to recognize that the current parabolic surge is not the dawn of a fresh cycle, but rather the culmination of a 15-year journey.
#Bitcoin
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If a stock market crash of 70-80% is on the horizon, the following scenario may unfold:
#BTC
09: Inception
24: First hit ~$200k at trend through encircled 1 and 3 then a 99.5% dump to ~$1k @ blue (4)
Compare with GOOGLE
04: Inception
08: First recession --> dump to blue (4)
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$BTC [1W] - Parabolic move to $222k remains intact.
Currently price is finalizing the 4th subwave of the blow-off wave we're tracking since Nov-23.
Note that the first correction was a zigzag type of correction, the current correction qualifies as a sideways flat correction (so…
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1/3
In this thread I share 20 charts of coins in the top-40 that have a similar bullmarket structure, including targets.
RETWEETS:
For each 100 RT's I'll provide another 20 charts.
* hasn't dropped below Sharp yet
$BTC:
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Probably it will be the most epic hit of all.
First 53k then relief rally to 100k is still very much achievable this month.
Floor model $98K Nov close will probably be a first miss (after nailing Aug, Sep, Oct). S2F model not affected and indeed on track towards $100K.
3K
4K
31K
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$BTC [1W] - Head and Shoulders bottom breaking out strongly now, targeting $150k.
#blowofftop
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Three consecutive green months are often followed by at least two other green months.
Blow-off top inbound (5-wave, steepest parabola within bullmarket)
#BTC
#Bitcoin2023
#BullMarket
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After the 𝕏, price doubles in a very short time... 30-60k?
Bitcoin is forming a step-like formation, currently finalizing base 3.
Perfect fit from Elliottwave perspective as well:
W1: B1 to B3
W3: B3 to B4
W5: B4 to sell point
PS: Twitter --> 𝕏 : perfect hint
#BTC
📈
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1/2 $BTC: Potential Elliott wave until EOY:
Currently price is at:
+ B-C wave of purple 1-2 correction wave within yelow II-III wave-> impulsive ⬇️;
+ Strong target is 53k area (0.5 correction of purple 0-1); also untested Wyckoff support;
#Bitcoin
#BTC
#BullMarket
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$BTC [1M] - Everything in place for a parabolic move to $200k, compare 🟢's:
+ Green Fibonacci resistance is broken;
+ Monthly RSI has entered bullish territory.
#blowofftop
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$BTC is less than 8% down from its ATH.
$52k is the new $32k which was the new $12k.
Now BTC will go sideways right?
It can’t top at $200k any more before halving right?
Meanwhile, price follows exactly the plotted parabolic fractal to $200k before April-20, shared at ~$40k
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⚠️
#BREAKING
Bitcoin breaking the 2-year+ yellow channel like a majestic bull leaping over a grumpy bear! 🐂
Sayonara, bears! This
#BullMarket
is here to stay, and we're just getting warmed up! 🔥
#bitcoin
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#BTC
Significant Breakout 🚨
The breakout of the 2.25Y descending channel is monumental! It marks the end of the expanded flat corrective wave 4.
This channel is entirely valid, containing the ABC correction of wave 4, fully determined by the green dots. 🟢
W5 is next.
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$170-200k before 2024 halving is too steep they say:
A move from now to $170-200k requires an angle of increase of 80 degrees.
Last 3 times, the final runup to the black trendline was under an angle of 80 or 81 degrees.
I'm ready, are you? 🚀
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By printing an ATH, BTC price doubled within 10, 18 or 84 days.
A move to $200k before the halving gets increasingly more feasible.
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$BTC [2W]: self-explanatory
#Elliottwave
count
W1: 1st impulse
W2: sharp correction
W3: extended impulse
W4
+ flat, retraced to the 0.5 fib. of W3
+ didn't enter W1-territory, inv. <13.8k
W5 mainly targets 160-170k
+ top channel through 2,3,4
+ 1.618 of W4
#BTC
#bullmarket
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$TRIAS [1W] is heading for $1000+
Only 10.000.000 $TRIAS will ever be available and are all in circulation.
Don't tell me that if $SHIB can reach a 40B market cap, something real like $TRIAS can't reach only a 10B MCAP.
61.8-78.6% resistance range has flipped to support 🧨…
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$BTC [2W] main
#Elliottwave
count:
I: 1st impulse
II: 1st correction (sharp, zigzag)
III: 2nd impulse
IV: 2nd correction (flat, irregular, complex)
V: 3rd impulse
Main targets:
130k @ 1.414 ext. of III-IV
170k @ 1.618 ext. of III-IV
Invalidation: <13.8k
#Bitcoin
#BTC
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$ADA[1W]: about to break the neckline of the Adam and Eve bottom and print the first Higher High since September 2021.
The blue downtrend is already broken and retested successfully.
My bags are ready for W5.
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GM!
There’s no point to change my view now, clearly price is going parabolic and still follows the speculative path to $200k before the halving. I’m not dreaming whatsoever, only observing price vs expectations.
Wave 5 has been validated by printing an ATH.
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Finally price has surged through the upper range bound of Base 3, kickstarting the momentum wave of the blow-off wave.
The long awaited impulsive bust to $60k+ in the shortest period of time has started. 🍌
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In 2013 BTC topped within 6 weeks at 2.272 2011 bear market extension after breaking 1.618 2011 bear market extension and alts didn't exist.
In 2017 BTC topped within 3 months at 2.272 2015 bear market extension after breaking 1.618 2015 bear market extension and alts did an…
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Told everyone you can't be bullish enough but I wasn't bullish enough myself 🤐
Price is running faster than projection. 🦾
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Bitcoin halving cycle theory predicts bull markets after each halving, but external factors & market cycles can overshadow it's impact.
With an upcoming recession (Q4-23/Q1-24), deviations from expectations are likely. Prepare for temporary diversions. 🦢⚫️
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$BTC [2W] compared to
#GOOG
.
The similarities are very obvious:
+ Huge bullish pennant breaks out to the upside;
+ Double top forms above it with a fake break-out below the red neckline.
No guarantees, prepare either way.
🙏
@Backpackpara
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$BTC - the parabolic move is leaving the station.
Bullish cross imminent this month for first time in $BTC history between 200 S(D)MA and 200 S(W)MA.
Both SMA's were stepping stones over the past months, see blue and red call-outs.
#Bitcoin2023
#BTC
#BullMarket
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1/2: $BTC [1M]: Update
#Elliottwave
count since '18 bottom.
Correction I-II was a sharp correction <0.272 retracement of 0-I.
Correction III-IV: flat correction which just hit the 0.5 retracement of the II-III impulse.
Invalidation of count: 13.8k.
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$BTC [1W] - Everything is still there for the parabolic rise to continue in the coming months. Retail shows little interest, while institutions push prices up.
Invalidation (as always): drop below $32k
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History:
when $BTC broke the 1.618 bear market extension, it always topped at the 2.272 extension within 1-3 months.
Extrapolation:
when $BTC breaks the 1.618 at $62.3k, within 1-3 months price already tops at ~$200k (2.272).
Legenda:
🟢 Struggle to overcome the 0.618-0.786…
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