PlanB
@100trillionUSD
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All models are wrong, but some are useful
Joined October 2017
My first Medium article! Combining all my tweets about modeling bitcoin's value with stock-to-flow, the halving, power laws, fractals and questions & answers to one logical story.
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Aug>47k✅.Sep>43k✅.Next targets: Oct>63k, Nov>98k, Dec>135k🚀
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Aug $47K✅.Sep $43K✅.Oct $61K new monthly close ATH!✅.Ok ok, 3% rounding error . close enough for me.Next targets: Nov>$98K, Dec>$135K🚀
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Bitcoin is below $34K, triggered by Elon Musk's energy FUD and China's mining crack down. There is also a more fundamental reason that we see weakness in June, and possibly July. My worst case scenario for 2021 (price/on-chain based): Aug>47K, Sep>43K, Oct>63K, Nov>98K, Dec>135K
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Floor model $98K Nov close will probably be a first miss (after nailing Aug, Sep, Oct). S2F model not affected and indeed on track towards $100K.
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$63K✅.
Bitcoin is below $34K, triggered by Elon Musk's energy FUD and China's mining crack down. There is also a more fundamental reason that we see weakness in June, and possibly July. My worst case scenario for 2021 (price/on-chain based): Aug>47K, Sep>43K, Oct>63K, Nov>98K, Dec>135K
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Classic.- step 1: liquidate all leveraged longs.- step 2: 🚀
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🔴RED DOT !!. Accumulation phase has ended: no more easy buying opportunities in orderly and slowly increasing markets. Bull market has started. If history is any guide, we will see ~10 months of face melting fomo: extreme price pumps combined with multiple -30% drops. Enjoy!🚀
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I don't think $69K was the top for this halving cycle. If $69K were the top, than a typical bear market -80% drawdown would bring the bottom to $14K . below 2017 ATH ($20K) and below 200WMA ($18K). Nah, that has never happened and IMO will never happen.
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🔥1,000,000 followers, thank you all!. This has been a wild ride: 3 years, 3 articles, 30 interviews. So much energy and great people in this space. Honored to be part of this epic journey🙏
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On days like this I switch off the computers and go for a long run.
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As you know S2F model predicts $100K average for this halving period (and based on floor model we reach $100K this yr). But S2FX model predicts $288K average this cycle (we need some real fireworks in 2022 for that). Let's see where this 2nd leg of the bull market will take us🚀
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On-chain analyses finished tonight: IMO we are midway, no sign of weakness (red) yet. Note color overlay is not months to halving but an on-chain signal. My guess: this 2nd leg of the bull market will have at least 6 more months to go.
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#bitcoin realized cap still increasing after March $58.8K close . you can not keep the ball under water forever .
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Some people think Nov close $98K is too big a jump. It is +60% from current level. Yes that is a big jump. But #bitcoin did this many times before:.May 2019 +62%.Aug 2017 +66%.May 2017 +66%.Nov 2013 +451%.Oct 2013 +61%.Mar 2013 +181%.Feb 2013 +63% etc
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$98K❌. Floor model first miss (after nailing Aug,Sep,Oct). No model is perfect, but this is a big miss and the first in 10y! Outlier/black swan? I will give Floor model 1 more month. S2F model unaffected and on track to $100K. Watch out for trolls confusing Floor and S2F model!.
Bitcoin is below $34K, triggered by Elon Musk's energy FUD and China's mining crack down. There is also a more fundamental reason that we see weakness in June, and possibly July. My worst case scenario for 2021 (price/on-chain based): Aug>47K, Sep>43K, Oct>63K, Nov>98K, Dec>135K
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As you know S2F model predicts ~$100K average this halving cycle (white line). I dumbed that down to "$100K Dec 2021 close" because to make $100K average, mid-cycle we should be above that average. My floor model (not S2F) predicts $135K Dec close: roughly in line with S2F model.
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When #bitcoin is in all time high mode (color turns red), it usually stays in ATH mode (red) for a couple of months
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In 2016 I bought my first #bitcoin at $400. March 2019 I published S2F model, at $4000 btc. Now, Jan 2022 btc dropped below $40,000 (within 2sd band). Some are worried about current dip, but I am quite sure that btc will add another zero next couple of years. Embrace volatility!
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Bitcoin needs a small miracle for a 100K Christmas. Will I ditch S2F model if this does not happen? Nah, I actually like being at the lower bands. In fact I published the model at the lower bands in March 2019 with btc below 4K.
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Imagine thinking a model that has stayed within 1 standard deviation band for 3yrs has failed. IMO we are in the exact same spot as March 2019 when I published S2F model: at the low end of the 1sd band. DYOR. Look at the chart. Your choice.
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#bitcoin is $55K now . only +15% to $63K🚀.
Bitcoin is below $34K, triggered by Elon Musk's energy FUD and China's mining crack down. There is also a more fundamental reason that we see weakness in June, and possibly July. My worst case scenario for 2021 (price/on-chain based): Aug>47K, Sep>43K, Oct>63K, Nov>98K, Dec>135K
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Just a scenario:.- Oct: classic pump month. BTC 70k.- Nov: Trump wins election, ends democrats Biden/Harris/Warren/Gensler war on crypto. BTC 100k.- Dec: massive ETF inflow. BTC 150k.- Jan: crypto people/companies return to US. BTC 200k.- Feb: Power Law crew sells. BTC 150k.-
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BREAKING . I quit my job (PlanA) and start focusing on #bitcoin (PlanB) full time as of March 1st! 😎
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I am #bitcoin only!.Pls do NOT reply/comment with info on other coins/tokens; I consider that noise. I block people who do that. Pls do NOT ask me to do S2F on other coins; there is no shitcoin S2F-price relation. Also do NOT @ me in giveaways & airdrops; it's a waste of my time.
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Price discovery on markets sometimes reminds me of the prisoner's dilemma. If everybody today decides not to sell #bitcoin under $100K, the price would rise over $100K today. However, some people chicken out .
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#bitcoin is $50K now . only +26% to $63K.
Bitcoin is below $34K, triggered by Elon Musk's energy FUD and China's mining crack down. There is also a more fundamental reason that we see weakness in June, and possibly July. My worst case scenario for 2021 (price/on-chain based): Aug>47K, Sep>43K, Oct>63K, Nov>98K, Dec>135K
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Bitcoin is entering the vertical part of the S-curve (and S2F-curve) . probably nothing.
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Like clockwork
Stock-to-Flow Multiple (463d).2021-11-08, 23:59 UTC. ln(actual / model). Actual price: $67,541.76.Model price: $98,543.87.S2F multiple: -0.38
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Back in blue
Stock-to-Flow Multiple (463d).2021-10-17, 23:59 UTC. ln(actual / model). Actual price: $61,462.22.Model price: $100,380.17.S2F multiple: -0.49
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To clarify: 98K Nov prediction is NOT based on S2F model but on my floor model. As I said before (in tweets and latest podcasts), I use 3 models:.1) S2F.2) Floor model.3) On-chain model.If for example 98K Nov floor model prediction fails, that does NOT mean S2F or on-chain fails.
Bitcoin is below $34K, triggered by Elon Musk's energy FUD and China's mining crack down. There is also a more fundamental reason that we see weakness in June, and possibly July. My worst case scenario for 2021 (price/on-chain based): Aug>47K, Sep>43K, Oct>63K, Nov>98K, Dec>135K
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Money printing (QE, debasement) is the only reason why governments can mandate drugs, close businesses, fire doctors and nurses, spinn main stream media, enforce lockdowns, destroy our liberties and society. That is why I tweet about current geopolitical events. #bitcoin
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On days like this I switch off the monitors and go for a run. Yes I hodled from 69K to 22K, did not sell a sat, because I thought BTC would go to 100K. But no reason to stare at screens all day. Best to switch off, do something you like and come back in a week or so.
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Just to confirm: both my S2F(X) model and on-chain signal point towards a second run of this bull market🚀
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Periodic reminder. 2016-2017 bull market (which current bull market mimics) had multiple -30% dips on the way up. Have to get rid of the tourists.
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I use models to protect myself from emotions. Right now most people, incl myself, fear further decline of btc price and want to sell. But S2F model shows btc is at the low end of 50k-200k 1sd band, a buy signal. Likewise 200k will feel like btc will rise forever but S2F says sell
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I keep staring at this weekly chart . if RSI goes above 70, like in 2013 and 2017 . 👀
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Let's skip September and go straight to October😎.
Bitcoin is below $34K, triggered by Elon Musk's energy FUD and China's mining crack down. There is also a more fundamental reason that we see weakness in June, and possibly July. My worst case scenario for 2021 (price/on-chain based): Aug>47K, Sep>43K, Oct>63K, Nov>98K, Dec>135K
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#bitcoin 200 week moving average still increasing. Ignore volatility, focus on the trend.
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If you look through #bitcoin volatility, you see 200 week moving average always going up, and BTC never closing a month below 200WMA. The trend is your friend.
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In normal markets RSI<30 means buy and RSI>70 sell. In #bitcoin RSI hardly ever goes below 45 and RSI can go as high as 95, because BTC has a continuous upward trend (RSI>50). Currently BTC RSI is 72. BTC is also in (monthly close) ATH mode (color red). Very interesting!🚀
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Reason why you are not buying BTC below 30k now, is the same reason why you did not buy BTC at 4k during Mar2020 covid bottom, or 3k during Dec2018 bear market bottom: FEAR. Fear that BTC could drop to 20k. But 3k, 4k or 5k does not matters now. Nor will 20k, 30k or 40k in 2yrs.
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What will trigger the next leg of the #bitcoin bull market?.- ETF approval (SEC).- Nation adoption (next El Salvador).- LN/Strike surprise (Jack Mallers).- Apple/Amazon/Google/MS adoption.- RSK killer use case (Blockstream).- Next Michael Saylor/Paul Tudor Jones.- China U-turn.?
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As you know I track many indicators & models besides S2F: RSI, 200WMA, Realized Cap, Logarithmic Regression etc. Chart below combines S2F, log regression & RSI. #Bitcoin price currently tracks log regression better than S2F. My money is still on S2F. 2022 will be very exciting!
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👀 Wow this is getting crazy . 350K followers in October? For all new followers: make sure you read my 3 articles and listen to 1 or 2 recent interviews on
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#bitcoin looking strong (RSI 68) despite macro headwind (omicron induced March 2020 flashbacks, and potential FED tapering).
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2013 vibes🔥.- 200 week moving average up (black).- realized cap up (grey).- in ATH mode (red: distance to all time high 1)
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I suggest opening a bottle of your finest wine, whiskey, rum, play this song (loud!), close your eyes and just wait🚀.
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I know some people have lost faith in this #bitcoin bull market. However we are only halfway into the cycle (2020-2024). And although BTC experiences some turbulence at $1T, the yellow gold cluster at S2F60/$10T (small black dots are 2009-2021 gold data) is still the target IMO.
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Intel embraces new technology and invested billions in proof of work mining. Meanwhile Europe wants to ban that same proof of work technology, which is just math. Europe is at peak stupidity.
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