Thank you, Elon, you finally got me to log off here! Find me @forrest4thetrees.bsky.social.

Hey, it's a buddy movie with me and @cd_hooks . We look at the Texas Democrats who *didn't* leave the state to stop the steal (GOP gerrymander)—do they constitute a "cuckus" or are they just realists? .

NEW: Trump's hiring freeze scuttled a key, federally-funded role in Texas's emergency response apparatus. The person was selected in Jan. and would've been in place @TDEM well ahead of the July floods. Their job: help translate warnings into action.

The Molly Ivins quip about a Pat Buchanan speech—"It probably sounded better in the original German"—is getting a workout these days.

Anyway, please read the story and send me your thoughts via email or DM .

—Eventually a slowdown in growth because of the lack of water availability. —All of which may eventually lead to pipeline projects bringing surface water to parts of the rural Hill Country, alleviating some of the pressure on groundwater but facilitating dense development.

A business-as-usual scenario for much of the Hill Country probably includes the following:. —Thousands of homes with failing wells, relying on trucked-in water. —More creeks and rivers becoming seasonal features like Jacob's Well/Cypress Creek in Wimberley.

But even with that scale, there is still 26,000 acre-feet of unmet need in the rural parts of Hays County over the next 50 years. I'm not in the prediction business, but my big takeaway from reporting this article is that the status quo is dangerously unsustainable.

I ran these figures by @MaceatMeadows, a rainwater guru, and he said, "I want to say that's insane, but I don't mean that in a negative way, but it's like, wow." . To reach that scale, he said, rainwater catchment would likely have to be required by the government.

. such expensive infrastructure doesn't make a lot of sense for a dispersed, rural area. The planners in Region L, which includes much of the eastern Hill Country, assume a massive buildout of rainwater catchment systems: 214,000 homes in Hays County at a cost of ~$200M by 2080.

Regardless, regional water planners seem to be at a loss as to how to manage the growth that's coming. The Trinity Aquifer is tapped out and there is no local surface water. A big pipeline could be brought from east of I-35 but. .

Isaac says she was standing up for private property rights, and accuses the groundwater district of being incompetent. She questions whether there is even a water crisis.

They are quick to note that her chief of staff was director of business development at Aqua.

Apparently @GregAbbott_TX agreed. In a shock to many, he vetoed SB 1253—a rarity for a local water bill w/ broad bipartisan support. Isaac's enemies, including the two GOP Hays county commissioners, accuse her of waging a campaign of fear & misinformation on behalf of Aqua TX.

There were lots of twists & turns but in the end SB 1253 passed with unanimous support in the Senate and a large majority in the House. That's despite fierce opposition from @CarrieIsaac, who reps part of Hays County. She said the bill was an assault on private property rights.

Conservationists have been trying to "fix" the district for two decades. This session, a powerful Senate Republican from Lubbock of all places helped pass legislation that would've strengthened the district, giving it a reliable funding source and ability to regulate more wells.

For the last 3+ years, Aqua has pumped far more water than allowed by the groundwater district. The co. has operated without permits since '24. But the groundwater district has been unable to get Aqua to comply. Instead Aqua sued the district, alleging unequal treatment.

And it struggles to handle the big pumpers that it *can* regulate, Aqua Texas in particular. Aqua is a publicly traded, PA-based company that pumps water out of the same part of the aquifer that feeds Jacob's Well. Critics blame it for the Well's demise.

The Hays Trinity Groundwater Conservation District—one of 98 in the state—may be the weakest in TX. And that's by design. It can't regulate domestic or agricultural wells at all, so developers can build a bunch of housing even if the water isn't going to be there down the road.

Groundwater managers say that 85-90% of the Trinity Aquifer in western Hays County has already been allocated but in reality they have no control over the vast majority of wells, because the Legislature exempted them from regulation in 2001.

I talked to experts who aren't sure how this growth is going to be accommodated in rural areas. The draft state water plan figures that more than half the water needs will be "unmet" by 2080, i.e. as of right now there are no firm, feasible strategies.