Fibonacci Investing⚡️
@FibonacciInves1
Followers
14K
Following
18K
Media
3K
Statuses
20K
Macro Investing...done right. Only personal opinions....not selling anything. Not financial advice.
Joined June 2022
If this cycle plays out like most the other cycles, it won't even be that remarkable that we crash back down to zero rates within this timeframe. The only thing remarkable will be how nobody expected it yet again. $TLT
73
54
432
Engineers applying the old way: 😩 Engineers applying with Fonzi: Super Saiyan mode
0
0
0
A reminder on how this can and probably will play out. It only takes TWO consecutive negative reports for everyone with money to pull out of the market.
Memory Lane: On Friday Sept 7, 2007 the NFP issued the first negative jobs report since the bull market began in 2003. August showed net job losses of 4000 (later revised to a loss of 28,000). The S&P fell 1.4% that day. It fell further on Monday then rallied the rest of the week
11
6
50
It got the nudge...
The 10Y just needs a nudge and I could see 100bps melt-off it.
6
10
84
Get that touchdown feeling in your living room with the TCL C8K. Don’t just watch it, experience it. The TCL C8K - the next best thing to being at the NFL
2
9
28
The 10Y just needs a nudge and I could see 100bps melt-off it.
10
10
113
EVERY CYCLE a new generation of investor cheers weak job data because they think a rate cut will more than make up for it. This has been the biggest mistake that has led to countless bubbles. Long $TLT
27
10
136
So...tariffs are indeed positive for bonds. Their net effect is lower debt and inflation. Today's price action shows that.
21
2
64
$SNES: The Tiny Company Tackling a Billion-Dollar Problem Introduction @SenesTech ($SNES) is tackling one of the world’s most persistent problems: rodent infestations. From major cities to farms across rural America, rats cause billions in annual losses by damaging crops,
7
1
23
$TLT - one of the longest setups known to man. Watching and waiting...👀
91
85
760
Deflation...
6
2
31
👀Is this why Buffett went to cash?
LARGEST 10% OF U.S. STOCKS NOW MAKE UP 76% OF MARKET CAP — HIGHEST CONCENTRATION IN HISTORY
6
5
49
The 70s inflation narrative is in the rearview mirror. In fact we should be developing the recessionary narrative of the early 80s. Rent inflation is falling quickly...
3
2
32
A new proposal from @CMSgov under @DrOz wants to add catheters, ostomy & trach supplies to Medicare’s competitive bidding program. This is a bad idea and will worsen outcomes for seniors & Medicare recipients. My latest in @MedPageToday explains why ⬇️
medpagetoday.com
Limiting urological, tracheostomy, and ostomy supply options will do more harm than good
18
43
260
👀 Deflation fast approaching... I can confirm that the rental market continues to be soft (first noticed in the beginning of the summer). CPI is very lagging but new leases are what leads the market and the data set. #bonds $TLT
7
6
66
"Zillow reported this week it would take mortgage rates dropping to about 4.43% to make an average home affordable for a typical buyer". Long $TLT to save housing.
17
10
116
So...here's what the non-farm payrolls look like with revisions. The picture is clear to me. It's inline with Leading Indicator Index as well. Really nice setup for bonds, $TLT. It's been a long steady slowdown but that's what happens when you try to fight macro forces. #macro
10
18
118
How much did my 2024 Mercedes AMG go up in value with the 15% EU tariffs?
4
0
11
I've been calling for Japan 2.0 for a while. Ironically, when this is done, the deficit is fine as long as spending only increases at the rate you want inflation to increase. Downside for politicians: you can't pull forward demand anymore without instantly creating inflation.
6
1
15
So... Look at the details. Budget estimate for the full year from customs duties (2025). Actual is on track for 150B+ versus 63B estimate. That means the deficit is on track to be much lower.
For June 2025: US govt revenue $526 billion US gov interest payments $144 billion On our $37 trillion debt, we paid 27% of all govt revenue in interest payments for the national debt.
4
0
17
Does a tariff revenue estimator exist? That would be super useful for macro.
3
0
13