Fergus Jimenez-England
@FergusJimenezE
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RT @NIESRorg: A must-read thread from our Associate Economist @FergusJimenezE on today's #LabourMarket data.⬇️⬇️⬇️🧵. #unemployment .#wages….
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Looking forward to the August release of ONS Labour Market Flows data, which will hopefully add clarity to the labour market story.
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Labour market slack is not observed, but imperfectly proxied/estimated. Policymakers looking to the unemployment rate as a signal for wage pressure should do so with caution.
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In turn, I would hesitate to interpret rising unemployment as a guarantee of falling wage growth in coming months. The story requires more nuance than that. Indeed, here is the Phillips curve since January 2022, which is pretty much uninterpretable:
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This two-tier environment can explain strong wage growth alongside rising unemployment. A separate question is what is driving this, which I won't cover here (work in progress!).
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The rising unemployment rate seems to be driven by net flows out of inactivity and unemployment duration. Meanwhile, healthy redundancy rates and aggregate unemployed-to-employed flows (latest data for Q1) suggest that some workers still face a relatively tight labour market.
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1. Wage growth is strong (5.0% YoY). 2. Falling inactivity rate (-0.9 ppts since March 2024). 3. Redundancy rate low and stable (3.7% in 3m to April vs 4.0% to January). 4. Vacancies falling. Is this consistent with labour market deterioration? Not entirely.
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Lots of talk about the labour market this morning. Some observations 🧵:. TL;DR The labour market is tight for some workers, but has become much weaker for the recently inactive. Apply Phillips curve logic at your own risk.
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RT @NIESRorg: Last week, the Chancellor delivered her Comprehensive #SpendingReview. But will the announcements truly boost #productivity….
niesr.ac.uk
Last week, the Chancellor delivered her Comprehensive Spending Review, in which she allocated departmental day-to-day and capital spending budgets from the total departmental spending envelope...
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RT @NIESRorg: NEW BLOG ✍. Reflecting on key themes from last week's Bank Watchers’ Conference, our @BenEcon33 asks @FergusJimenezE for his….
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RT @NIESRorg: Webinar: From Tariff Ripples to Economic Waves 🎦. 📅 Friday 16 May.⏰ 13:00-14:00. This event is a chance to gain understanding….
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Moment of silence for forecasters ….
President Trump says he is pausing new tariffs for 90 days, except for ones on China which are being raised to 125%
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RT @NIESRorg: "It is quite difficult to understate just how disruptive these #tariffs have been and will continue to be" 📉. Our @FergusJime….
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RT @NIESRorg: ⚡️What are the likely implications of these “Liberation Day” #tariffs for the UK economy? 📉. Our @EconSteveM asks @FergusJime….
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RT @NIESRorg: JUST PUBLISHED ⚡️📃 NIESR's Response to the #SpringStatement. "Today’s policy announcements have neither improved the UK’s tre….
niesr.ac.uk
The 2025 Spring Statement was delivered against a background of continuing low growth and above target inflation. Did it deliver what was needed for the economy?
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RT @NIESRorg: "It should not be overlooked that today’s policy announcements were motivated by the need to uphold self-imposed fiscal rules….
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RT @NIESRorg: "The Chancellor claims that the restored £9.9 billion headroom is a sufficient buffer against economic shocks. The urgency of….
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I had a great time talking about being a professional economist as part of a careers insight event held by @portsmouthuni. It was a pleasure to chat with so many enthusiastic students. @NIESRorg. I don’t have a photo of the event, but I did go for a walk prior (evidence below).
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RT @NIESRorg: #WeekendWatching 📺. On Friday, our researchers Patricia Sanchez Juanino, @FergusJimenezE and @EconArnab presented the finding….
niesr.ac.uk
After the election of a new government in July 2024 with a mandate of ‘change’ and the promise of higher economic growth, what is the UK economic outlook?
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RT @NIESRorg: Recent unrest in the #BondMarkets has caused commentators to question the direction of government economic policy 💬. But what….
niesr.ac.uk
What caused the recent bond market unrest? We examine the extent to which Britain was an outlier globally, and how the Chancellor should respond.
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