François Godement
@FGodement
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Historian, Special Advisor Asia & America @i_montaigne , non-resident Senior Associate (until February 2025) @CarnegieEndow. Prone to irony.
Paris, Ile-de-France
Joined May 2014
Four scenarios for China to 2035. In contrast with the recent past, they depend as much on the responses by others to China's policies as on its own course, incfreasingly rigid.
institutmontaigne.org
China’s push for "socialist modernization" by 2035 faces internal strains and global tensions. Four scenarios—ranging from dominance to conflict—could reshape global power.
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Les remerciements du Hamas, le même jour que les vidéos terribles des otages israéliens.
"L'initiative de plusieurs pays de reconnaître un État palestinien est l'un des fruits du 7 octobre", déclare un cadre du Hamas.
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Une excellente analyse - car nuancée sans nier le rapport de force humiliant pour une Europe insuffisamment unie et fédérée. Problème: Trump s'en tiendra-t-il là, et la Chine n'est-elle pas encouragée à tirer parti de notre faiblesse? @i_montaigne.
institutmontaigne.org
Bruxelles et Washington actent 15 % de droits de douane. Et si cette rupture devenait un levier pour renforcer la souveraineté stratégique de l’UE ? Une tribune de François Chimits, à retrouver...
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Like you @RVlahutin I am merely trying to read the road signs in Trump. Today there is denial from both US and Taiwan sources that Lai was denied travel via the USA, but can the Taiwanese say otherwise, that's also a question. .
@FGodement Dear @FGodement I know we agree that the job of making Europe strong belongs to us, Europeans, and only us. The talk of Trump seeking accommodation with China has been around for some time now. I genuinely wonder if this is the case - as many fear so.
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Dear @RVlahutin if the US wanted to strengthen its hand with China it would not start by weakening Europe and stirring up nationalism there. The net result is also a weaker and divided EU facing China, all the more so because member states let the Commission take the blame.
Is Trump doing the U-turn on China many predicted? While demanding clear choice from America’s traditional partners. Or this is still just maneuvering to strengthen US negotiations position?.
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Yeah, and meanwhile Trump rackets the EU and moves closer to Beijing on several fronts @tanvi_ratna.
Critics said Trump’s tariffs would drive Europe into China’s arms. Instead, EU–China ties are fraying, and Brussels just signed an America-first deal:. 15% tariffs, $1 Trillion+ in new commitments — not what the elites expected. Here’s what most got wrong — and why it matters🧵
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Is Donald Trump now doing the U-turn on China many predicted? Within two weeks, lifting export ban on high end chips to China, a trade truce for several months, forbidding Taiwan's president Lai from making a stopover in New York? All this while he rackets the EU, an easier prey.
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RT @fbermingham: They also remain in place on national parliamentarians from Belgium, Lithuania and the Netherlands, as well as the EU’s po….
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RT @fbermingham: Chinese sanctions remain on researchers from the Mercator Institute for China Studies, a German think tank; German scholar….
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Et le boom des exportations de la Chine vers l'Europe continue - accompagné d'un reflux persistant des importations chinoises. voir le cas de la France.
China's trade data for June out today - key EU figs (USD vs June 24). Exports to EU +7.6%, imports +0.4%.Exports to Germany +3.5%, imports -2.3%.Exports to Netherlands +2.1%, imports +19.6%.(more ASML?).Exports to France +13.6%, imports -6.8%.Exports to Italy +12.2%, imports +4%
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RT @i_montaigneEN: @FGodement @MichaelKovrig @JulietteOdolant @BassiJustin @ASPI_org 📘Read the new issue of China Trends in full on our web….
institutmontaigne.org
China Trends is a quarterly publication by Institut Montaigne's Asia Program, with each issue focusing on a single theme. This new edition sheds light on China's ambitions in the global space of...
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RT @i_montaigneEN: 🇪🇺🇨🇳Ahead of the EU-China summit, Beijing shows few, if any concession. In his introduction @FGodement examines what les….
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RT @i_montaigneEN: @FGodement In this explainer, our expert highlights three key drivers of this resilience:.🌍 redirecting exports to other….
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My take on the relentless Chinese export drive and its ripple effects - on Europe, on ASEAN, on emerging economies - and on relations with the Trump administration! The Incredible Resilience of the Chinese Economy | Institut Montaigne
institutmontaigne.org
Under pressure from the US, China is rethinking its strategies: rapid diversification, technological domination and structural challenges. An unprecedented insight into the choices shaping the global...
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Fondamentalement isolationniste mais interventionniste sur une base d'intérêts précis: politique étrangère américaine : la bascule générationnelle | Institut Montaigne
institutmontaigne.org
56 % d’Américains favorables à une forte présence internationale. Quelle politique étrangère face aux crises en Ukraine, Iran, Asie ? Analyse de Léonie Allard et Julian Blum.
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Is there a causal relationship between the S&P500's record breaking rise and @realDonaldTrump 's immediately following decision to terminate trade negotiations with Canada ? Chastened when Wall Street falls, emboldened when it rises?.
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Further use by China of export denials as sanctions -targeting India's agriculture.
An important read if accurate. China is testing economic sanctions in low-key way to judge how India reacts. Bears very close watching.
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From past writings, Wang Jin sounds like a realist.That gives weight to his dark assessment of Teheran's options after the strikes and skepticism on Iran"closing" the Strait of Hormuz. On the other hand, imho, deterring most tankers from crossing it could be a short term option?.
"Regardless of the path forward, the US strike has undeniably worsened Iran’s strategic position. Any Iranian retaliation risks deepening its predicament" - Prof. Wang Jin, assistant director of the Institute of Middle East Studies, Northwest University of China. Translated
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Rigolo: une mairie qui prône le sans voiture "oublie" d'interdire la circulation même dans les rues étroites et surchargées autour d'Odéon/Saint Michel.
Il faut revoir la #FetedelaMusique à Paris. Il n’y est plus question de musique, de création, de familles, mais de machine à cash pour les bars sur fond de musique de DJ crachée à fond par des enceintes qui perforent les murs des appartements et mettent à mal les nerfs des.
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Targeting California means Trump.understands that Gavin Newsom is a real threat to MAGA for 2026 and 2028. Had Trump Calling Troops Into Los Angeles Is the Real Emergency via @NYTOpinion.
nytimes.com
The president’s use of the National Guard serves his own interests above the country’s.
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You are right @DaniellesCave but I found that other figure on ASPI's website:"China’s global lead extends to 37 out of 44 technologies that ASPI is now tracking".
aspi.org.au
ASPI’s Critical Technology Tracker – The global race for future power The Critical Technology Tracker is a large data-driven project that now covers 64 critical technologies spanning defence, space,...
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