Running Back Prospect Model 2026 Class Below are the pre-draft results of my RB prospect model, which uses experience-adjusted production, efficiency, & draft capital to evaluate the 2026 class Breakdowns, hit rates, & comps vs 2024/2025 class in the thread below! 🧵 [1 of 7]

Sam Darnold is the first QB from his stacked draft class to win the Super Bowl 😱

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BEWARE THE DARK SIDE 😈 The Seahawks defense DOMINATED in the Super Bowl 🏆

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Outside of a handful of prospects, the 2026 RB class is somewhat underwhelming. There’s much more to be excited about with the 2026 WR class Planning to share the pre-draft WR results after the Super Bowl

Finally, how does the 2026 class compare to some of the recent prospects who have entered the NFL? The 2025 class remains one of the deepest in recent history, with Ashton Jeanty leading the way Jeremiyah Love would be the RB2 as a prospect over the last three drafts [7 of 7]

As you can see above, hit rates outside of the 70th Percentile drop significantly RBs outside of that range that stand out based on production and efficiency: • Kaytron Allen (86th %ile Senior year) • Seth McGowan (leads class with 51% EPA success rate) [6 of 7]

Historical Hit Rates* by Percentile • 90th - 99.9th Percentile: 92% • 80th - 90th Percentile: 58% • 70th - 80th Percentile: 42% • 60th - 70th Percentile: 15% • Below 60th Percentile: 14% *Top 24 Fantasy Season in PPG [5 of 7]

After Coleman, there's a cluster of three RBs in Tier 3: Emmett Johnson Nick Singleton Jadarian Price Johnson stands out with the most productive season by an RB in this class (98th percentile in 2025) Singleton remains one of the most productive true freshmen [4 of 7]

Washington's Jonah Coleman currently holds the RB2 spot after two productive seasons at Washington (27% dominator rating since 2024) Worth noting, the 2026 class is projected to have the largest gap between RB1 and RB2, with Coleman ranking only in the 79th percentile [3 of 7]

Jeremiyah Love is the clear RB1 in this class, checking multiple boxes as a prospect: ✅ Positive Exp-Adjusted Production ✅ 92nd Percentile Junior Season ✅ Early Declare ✅ Expected 1st Round Capital He should be the 1.01 in Dynasty Drafts [2 of 7]

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Keep in mind, athleticism matters at the TE position, but production is still the stronger indicator. Correlation (R2) for TE prospects since 2013: • 0.06 - Relative Athletic Score • 0.11 - Height Adj Speed Score • 0.23 - Schedule Adj Production • 0.41 - Draft Capital

For context, there were 4 TEs in the 2025 class who exceeded 2.0 RYTPA in their best college season: Harold Fannin Jr (3.7) Tyler Warren (2.82) Oronde Gadsden II (2.79) Colston Loveland (2.20) Important to note, correlations to PPG improve if you adjust for strength of schedule

For TE prospects, “best season” college production has one of the higher correlations to fantasy PPG at the next level Leaders in “best season” Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt - 2026 TE class: • Eli Stowers (2.11) • Max Klare (2.08) • Tanner Koziol (1.93)

For those wondering (and it’s probably not a surprise) … the one RB prospect with positive production in this class? Jeremiyah Love

The 2026 RB class projects to only have 1 drafted prospect with positive experience-adjusted college production Since 2013, every class has had at least two RBs meet that threshold For context, the 2025 class included 8 RBs with positive college production

Gute drafted LVN over JSN They drafted Jordan Morgan over Cooper Dejean. They Drafted Kevin King over Tj Watt. These are the decisions that have kept the Green Bay Packers away from the big game since 2010. It’s truly shameful. Just painful all around.

From a production perspective, Indiana's Elijah Sarratt stands out as one of the better WRs in the 2026 class Sarratt has accounted for over 25% of his team's receiving production EVERY season He also leads the 2026 class in experience-adjusted production:

Packers, head coach Matt LaFleur agree to terms on multiyear contract. (via @TomPelissero)