Erik Fossing Nielsen 🇪🇺 🇺🇦
@ErikFossing
Followers
23,296
Following
1,246
Media
561
Statuses
16,675
Group Chief Economics Advisor, UniCredit. (Ex UC Chief Econ and head of research, Goldman Sachs Chief European Economist, World Bank, IMF, Danish central bank.)
London and Berlin
Joined October 2013
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
Rafah
• 470461 Tweets
Fortnite
• 227804 Tweets
Memorial Day
• 85924 Tweets
#تتويج_الهلال
• 84803 Tweets
سلمان
• 80763 Tweets
QSMP
• 78876 Tweets
#LisbonTStheErasTour
• 56961 Tweets
Coutinho
• 46369 Tweets
Neto
• 37175 Tweets
Accidentally
• 33815 Tweets
Militão
• 33276 Tweets
THE WAY I LOVED YOU
• 33015 Tweets
Karoline
• 32942 Tweets
Gove
• 32615 Tweets
Ergin Ataman
• 29753 Tweets
Mourão
• 25440 Tweets
GLAY
• 24483 Tweets
Datti
• 22467 Tweets
Cecília
• 22074 Tweets
Guarani
• 17320 Tweets
SUPERNOVA STEPS ON THE CHARTS
• 14353 Tweets
COME BACK BE HERE
• 13537 Tweets
Nicolle
• 10357 Tweets
How disgustingly low the Danish government has fallen:
Rwanda declined offer of free vaccines from DK. It’s now revealed that the offer of the vaccine donation was tied to them accepting Danish asylum centres in Rwanda.
This is as far from the Danish values I know as can be.
Rwanda siger nej tak til gratis vacciner fra Danmark. Aktindsigt viser, at donationen er tæt koblet sammen med drøftelserne om en asylsamarbejde.
@MadsBroberg
og
@anders_redder
skriver
13
66
349
25
389
1K
Put differently, the French and the Americans are equally productive when they work. The French have just decided to buy more of that wonderful commodity called free time - which they can afford because of their less skewed income distribution, better soc safety net + healthcare
In terms of output per hour worked, France is slightly ahead of Germany and remarkably close to the United States.
17
71
328
13
124
474
After 23 yr in UK (where I paid my taxes but as a Danish citizen with no vote), I think the PM is telling me I’m no longer welcome. And as he looks to get re-elected, the balance of pop apparently thinks the same.
Did the UK I loved change? - or did I never understand the UK?
EU migrants have been able to “treat the UK as if it’s part of their own country” for too long, Boris Johnson said yesterday as he reprised the core message of Vote Leave’s 2016 EU referendum campaign.
5K
2K
2K
45
99
380
For our European friends:
The Danish government is changing its stance on the European budget and loans/grants. Out of the “Frugal Four”.
Finally!
Hammiltonsk! Jeg og RV er hånet for vores holdning og for at stå aldeles isoleret i spørgsmålet om fælles lån, egen EU-indtægt og en pragmatisk budgetindstilling. Glæder mig over, at regeringen og nu flere partier endelig stiller sig på den rigtige side af Europas historie.
5
19
83
6
124
369
Personal news: Today is my last day as UniCredit chief economist and head of research. With a lot of pride and pleasure, tomorrow I’ll hand over to Marco Valli
@MarcoValli12
, our European chief economist.
It’s been 10 amazing years, but for me it’s time to refocus …1/2
32
12
334
Inflation is the outcome of a supply shock, not excessive demand, and it will therefore come down by itself.
No need for monetary tightening to achieve this. Big risk of excessive tightening by
@ecb
… sorry for sounding like a broken record….
Peak Inflation in one chart. German Producer Prices plunged by 4.2% MoM in Oct, the first month-on-month decrease since May 2020 (–0.4% on April 2020) AND the biggest monthly drop in the history of PPI.
72
606
3K
29
74
280
Wednesday morning in central Milan:
Double macchiato, freshly pressed orange juice, freshly baked croissant. Grand total EUR 8.00.
Tell me of any place with better value-for money!
82
3
274
I don’t understand your logic here:
For me, a growth engine for a region like Europe is a country with strong demand and therefore typically with current account deficit. Germany has been feasting on other countries’ demand for years, so I’m not convinced about your conclusion.
The Euro zone has one growth engine: Germany. That growth engine is now faltering, due to the massive rise in energy costs that undercuts the profitability of many product lines. What will follow is lots of restructuring, lots of reform and more tension within the Euro zone...
30
228
723
18
50
256
Hvis der er interesse it endnu et eksempel:
Efter 38 år i udlandet havde jeg overværet at flytte tilbage til Danmark (hvor jeg mener måske at kunne bidrage lidt - i det mindste ved at betale skat).
Men beskeden er: min hustru (US, gift i 35 år) kan ikke få opholdstilladelse.
Hej Danmark
Vi er ved at smide guld ud (igen). En topprofessor der har boet med sin kone (2 børn) i DK i over 10 år kan ikke blive familiesammenført med sin hustru. Nu overvejer han om de skal blive i DK. Stop NU den gakkelak udlændingepolitik.
#dkpol
32
45
466
23
24
247
And good morning to you, “the German of selected statistics”....
Our Italian friends remind us that the average number of hours worked per year per Italian is 1730, while its only 1363 by the average German. (OECD stat).
Just saying ....
Good Morning from Germany where for Germans work plays a more important role in life than for most other Europeans. Germans spend 39.1yrs earning money or being available for labour market. Avg Italian only spends 32yrs of his or her life working via
@welt
34
119
289
8
74
231
Am I the only one who finds these space tourism adventures offensive at this time of critical climate changes needs, the pandemic and sufferings by so many?
Find someone who is more passionate and excited about their job than
@RachCrane
covering
@richardbranson
’s space launch. Her enthusiasm is infectious! 🚀
15
11
183
29
24
214
Stunning chart from Marco Valli, research chief at UniCredit
9
61
198
Occasionally, EU policymakers and the media get very excited about claims that the core problem in Europe is that certain countries apparently “do not live by the rules”. Below, you’ll find the Commission’s data on infringements in the Single Market, by country. No comment needed
12
174
184
….and for that, UniCredit has been kind enough to offer me a role as advisor to the group. I’ll continue to write my Sunday Wrap under the UniCredit research umbrella - and I’ll enjoy more time for “general thinking”.
Stay tuned …
Happy New Year!
39
4
186
The UK government missed 8 EU conference calls (to which they were invited) to organised shared purchases of medical equipment.
Now UK is relying on the goodwill of Germany and others to ship ventilators etc to the UK.
Welcome to life in the UK outside EU under incompetent Govn
The long and daming Reuters analysis of Coronavirus outbreak in Britain - a seriously important piece of work:
182
3K
4K
1
95
163
Mindbogglingly wrong to call euro a tragedy. What type of counterfactual do you have in mind?
95% of the Eurozone population have had stronger income growth than 95% of the US population since the euro’s birth. Apart from the richest 5%, who would have been better off elsewhere?
Mody's book is a masterful account of the tragedy of the euro. Highly recommend it.
5
31
71
24
65
161
Brutal, but true. And someone needed to say it.
Brutal words from French President
@EmmanuelMacron
towards
@BorisJohnson
"It just so happens that making the British prime minister happy isn't the vocation of sovereign leaders of the 27 member states that chose to remain in the EU"
68
626
1K
6
25
162
Tonight, 74 years ago, Nazi-Germany surrendered Northern Europe.
Tomorrow, I’ll drive the short distance from my hometown in Denmark to my place in Berlin’s Mitte.
I can think of no place or time better to have lived than in Europe post WW-II. I truly belong to the lucky ones.
3
35
159
I honestly hope that someone will tell Rutte that he has no say in European fiscal matters until the Netherlands abandons its corporate tax haven policies.
How NL tax deals for foreign corporates can be acceptable inside a currency union (actually, anywhere) is a mystery to me.
Dutch PM Rutte today again said that he wants the EU recovery fund "to be just loans", i.e. no grants. A Chutzpah: lamenting that public debt in Southern Europe is too high, while persistently pushing for "solutions" that would further increase public debt (more loans).
6
32
85
7
67
160
Sorry
@ecb
- this was one of the most confusing press conferences in a long time
Lagarde pedalled back previous statements in name of flexibility, refused even to say markets are wrong pricing 2 hikes this year. Wow!
But then ending on “no wage pressure” and difference to US OMG
10
32
147
Since NATO was established, only one member has ever called on other members for assistance, putting their soldiers’ lives on the line for that member. And that member was the US. Next to my Dad’s grave in provincial Denmark lies a Danish kid who died for the US in Afghanistan
Many countries in NATO, which we are expected to defend, are not only short of their current commitment of 2% (which is low), but are also delinquent for many years in payments that have not been made. Will they reimburse the U.S.?
14K
9K
46K
2
88
137
Today’s Sunday Wrap: I discuss
@ecb
‘s surprise pre-announcement of major policy shift, reversing their decision just 7 weeks ago and narrative just a week ago.
What happened? What it means for policies this year and the troublesome impact for 2023-24
8
34
140
Just like - I assume - it’s up to the Dutch government to stop its tax haven practices ….
*DUTCH PREMIER SAYS IT'S UP TO ITALY TO CONTAIN BOND SPREADS
13
17
43
8
18
138
Today in Germany, a tax-subsidised cut in petrol prices of 35c takes effect.
In my opinion, as we need to cut CO2 as well as oil import from Russia this is just about the most inappropriate fiscal measure one could imagine
I wonder what advisor to BMF
@Lars_Feld
thinks of it?
7
20
132
Italy has stronger GDP growth than the UK, smaller fiscal deficit, current account surplus (UK big deficit), higher private sector savings ratio, positive real income growth (UK negative), better weather, better food and better wine. You go figure...
9
86
127
Wow! “Just a few days” for Russia to explain itself, otherwise Nord Stream 2 stops.
Alexej Nawalny: Heiko Maas droht erstmals mit Stopp von Nord Stream 2 | ZEIT ONLINE
5
61
119
Not only Carney, but virtually everyone with a basic understanding of economics predicted this.
In contrast, the Brexiters are now being revealed for what they are: A bunch of nationalist zealots with no interesting in - or understanding of - economics.
Desperately sad!
I’m old enough to remember when Carney warned Brexit would have an inflationary effect while damaging the economy and Brexiters, led by Rees-Mogg, called him “The High Priest of Project Fear”. ~AA
57
2K
4K
8
62
123
Greetings from the IMF’s Spring meetings in DC.
$8 for a stracciatella - which is almost as good as the one you get in Milan for €3. What went wrong?
Did the Fed allow US inflation to run away?
Did EU fiscal authorities constrain demand too much?
Are markets mispricing EUR/USD?
36
10
125
Brilliant.
And let’s just be totally clear:
That spike had nothing to do with excess demand - and the drop had nothing to do with monetary policy. The pain of the greatest mon pol tightening in decades (if ever) is still to come - when inflation is safely back around 2%!
4
36
123
Now tell me, all you Euro-sceptics, who suggest Greece, Italy, or whoever, would be better off with their own currency to depreciate .... why is the Turkish lira collapse not “a good” story, but rather something that seems to worry people?
13
73
120
My key take-always from the European deal announced this morning:
2
39
118
Maybe the Dutch could start by donating the amount they take in each year in taxes from international companies diverting their tax obligations to the NL to take advantage of NL tax haven laws? 2-3% of GDP?
I cannot believe that we are still here: maybe we should move to the donation that the
#Dutch
government dared propose. The problem is that the actual amount would need to be unveiled by now and we would all laugh 😂😰. Sinking boat and sinking feeling
@ErikFossing
@IMateosylago
2
2
8
6
44
117
Ouch!
If we have moved to a phase where our political leaders make such sweepingly simplistic judgements of other European countries, we are in trouble.
„Staaten, die in ihren Systemen kaputt sind.“
Österreichs Bundeskanzler über seine südlichen EU-Nachbarn:
293
297
824
11
20
112
In a nutshell,
- when a German chancellor goes to Paris, they talk about the future.
When the chancellor goes to Warsaw, they talk about the past.
Alt andet end let søndag for Olaf Scholz. 2. udlandsrejse går til Polen. Kaczynski har netop betegnet Tyskland som “det 4. rige” og under besøget er
#ruleoflaw
, Nordstream2, Ukraine etc. på dagsordenen
#eudk
1
2
16
5
20
114
Today’s Sunday Wrap on how the two big events of this past week:
- the game-changing Macron-Merkel Plan and
- the huge demand from Italians in Italy’s BTP-Italia debt issue
both demonstrate a much more robust Europe than generally perceived.
4
59
113
Don’t worry. The many Germans without 4G are happy to hear on their short wave radio that finance minister Scholz is not contemplating any deviation from the balanced budget to boost investment to get the 21 century to their community.
6
43
110
A scandal with huge cost to future generations. Terrible verdict of those in charge at the time (not least as they could have borrowed at close to 0%!)
This is the real tragedy of the EU’s over-simplistic fiscal rules and accounting- approach to fiscal policy.
7
34
109
Drama! FYI, so far this year, Italy has issued sovereign debt of about 325bn at an average cost of 1%, some 85% of the issuances used to retire maturing debt (and the retired debt carried an average interest of 1.3%).
Let’s get the facts straight.
Italy’s problem is growth
#Italy
already on the precipice of a debt spiral. Average yield must fall to 2.63% to regain balance, Rabobank says.
10
53
77
7
64
103
Am I the only one feeling really annoyed by seeing my tax money get distributed so disproportionately to Hungary, thereby supporting a leadership there which is not only so blatantly anti-EU, but now with a questionable democratic commitment?
17
16
104
Hilarious!
Denmark Offers to Buy U.S. | The New Yorker
4
31
102
A reminder that the EU (and the proposal presently being negotiated) is not really about money from the north to the south, but predominantly about (still more) money from the north to the east.
Which countries have been net contributors vs receivers of EU funds?
Surprising for some, 🇮🇹 has been a net giver, while the balance for 🇪🇦 has been flat.
Grants under the
#EUco
#recoveryfund
are far from a gift - but can be seen as a few years of contributions given back.
21
143
307
2
45
101
In today’ Sunday Wrap - written at Caffè Nero in Chiswick where the Wrap was born 15 years ago - I discuss the geopolitical outlook for remainder of this decade, and what it means for European economy and markets, in light of the latest glimmers of hope.
12
9
104
One of the most thought-provoking pieces I have read in a long time!
4
17
102
As we wait for the formality of the Biden victory, I keep staring at one specific number: 70.2 million!
That’s the number of Americans who (so far) have voted for Trump; more than who voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012.
70.2 million! We are in trouble.
27
18
102
In today’s Sunday Wrap:
- The risks associated with too much fiscal stimulus in the US and too little in Europe (spoiler: the former is a lot better than the latter)
- Draghi should boost labor participation because it’s the key to stronger growth.
4
26
100
There is a difference:
In the U.K., the government has 5 absurd objectives and no plan or strategy.
In Germany, the government has at least 3 plans, but the fiscal plan, which caps them all, is the wrong one.
We are living a rare moment in which both UK and German economic policy-makers have questions to answer. At the bottom of the recovery league.
35
115
513
2
26
98
Who is this completely ignorant clown? - and how is it possible that reputable print and TV will expose their readers and viewers to such absurdity?
Germany tonight in its biggest political crisis since late 1940s. Bigger even than UK’s current ongoing political crisis.
1K
1K
3K
146
15
96
What if it’s not a depression, but the (inevitable) adjustment to lower sustainable living standards, following years of artificially high levels, boosted by the financing of huge internal and external deficits -used for consumption rather than investment?
Simply astonishing:
#Greece
's depression is the longest and deepest on record - and it's still ongoing. (IMF 2018 Article IV Consultation)
18
287
286
12
38
94
And so what?
Oops!
#ECB
balance sheet jumps ABOVE 60% of Eurozone GDP when calculated w/depressed Q2 2020 GDP numbers.
22
196
486
6
6
95
Hold on, Germany. Lower Saxony about to add another 2.5bn to help Nord LB? I thought we had agreed in Europe that taxpayers’ money should no longer be used to rescue banks?
Looks like the severe distortion of the German market for banks is set to continue.
Und so werden die direkten Kosten der Bankenrettung in Deutschland weiter ansteigen - wohl auf über 70 Mrd €. Die Finanzkrise lebt - leider.
#Finanzwende
2
21
27
9
76
97
Why why why?
Inquiry finds World Bank officials, including now-I.M.F. chief, pushed staff to inflate China data. - The New York Times
9
28
94
As someone with a Danish mortgage with a negative interest rate, let me disappoint you: The guy who is buying the bond suffers, but the (Danish) bank somehow manages to add an admin (and other) monthly fee, so I - the borrower - actually pay the bank (not the other way around)
Danish banks literally paying people to borrow money. It’s caused by the distortion in sovereign yields by central bank buying. The sovereign debt collapse will look so obvious in hindsight.
8
28
81
5
26
92
You often hear Europe being described as an “open air museum” (and I don’t sense its mean as a compliment ...), but then you see this and wonder: What exactly is wrong with that?
Geen idee wie Rick is maar wat mij betreft heeft hij het plaatje van het jaar geschoten. Geven jullie dat even aan hem door?
81
378
5K
1
7
94
In today’s Sunday Wrap:
The sharp division in inflation (and even more so in wage developments), and hence likely central bank reaction, in US and Eurozone - latest clarified in
@Isabel_Schnabel
interview.
Impact for markets - and
@ecb
dilemma.
3
21
93
A must-read thread! Excellent.
I would just add that I wish someone could design a massive tax on useless energy consumption/pollution, eg for creation of crypto currencies.
It’s an outrage! - and a bizarre irony that the man who revolutionised electric vehicles buys bitcoin.
Tesla just announced that it had bought 1.5 billion dollars of bitcoin and could in the future sell cars in bitcoins. Since this morning both Bitcoin and Tesla are going up in the market. Maybe there is afterall something in the saying that“Bitcoin is Tesla without the cars”1/ 20
42
246
840
9
16
90
Please help me here: If you peel away all the crazy rhetoric, what’s wrong with securitising payment arrears?
Il voto del PD sui
#minibot
è semplicemente imbarazzante. Il PD non perde occasione per dare dei cialtroni ai partiti della maggioranza, e poi vota per una mozione dagli effetti potenzialmente dirompenti che i suoi parlamentari non leggono o non capiscono.
50
256
826
16
48
84
Today’s Sunday Wrap on the German elections. I suggest an outcome exactly the opposite of last year’s US elections:
We’ll get few, if any, big statements of change, but policies - domestic and wrt Europe alike - will indeed change significantly.
3
21
89
We just learned that
@ecb
slowed PEPP purchases last week to 12bn (from 17/week), allowing yields to move higher - at the same time as Lagarde, Lane and Schnabel all told us that they worry about higher yields. Weird
Disconnect between word and action - or an attempt to confuse?
8
51
86
To another 1541 !
Today Kyiv is 1541 years old🎉
Z Dnem Narodzhennia, Kyyeve! ❤️
📸 Serhiy Ristenko
42
247
1K
3
4
88
I profoundly disagree. Here’s a list of Europe’s 10 biggest problems:
1. Trump
2. Putin
3. Le Pen
4. AfD
5. Lega
6. Poland and Hungary
7. Brexit
8. Demographics
9. Italian growth
10. German Banking System.
19
21
85
Yes, what a disaster that would be - being “fucking Denmark” - where:
99% of pop is wealthier than in the US
Life expectancy is higher
Child mortality lower
Social mobility considerably higher
And ... surprise surprise, happiness is higher.
6
15
85
Yes it is interesting! - but it really shouldn’t be.
With all respect, that the opinion of these 4 private (North American) teams (each with a small research budget and a record that reflects that) matters for the policies and Europe really is insane. (Sorry, but really!)
To watch: upcoming rating releases for euro countries.
It will be interesting to see how rating agencies are evaluating the balance of policy support and
#COVID19
risk for sovereign credit.
1/3
2
9
18
5
15
88
Cool. How about starting by ending the Netherland’s own tax haven status?
Yesterday, a large majority of the Dutch Parliament voted for a resolution asking the government to support coordinated efforts for a global tax on the very rich. This includes MPs from VVD (Renew), NSC (EPP), Groenlinks-PvdA (Greens/S&D), and SP (GUE/NGL).
6
78
240
4
21
88
Turkey is indeed a wonderful country with great people and lots of very good companies. But the destruction of the macro foundation has been under way for some years now due to the political economy.
Without putting a too fine point on it, too many economists missed this.
Moodys downgraded Turkey again last night to B3. Deep into junk territory. Those who know me know I have argued for better ratings for Turkey in the past but it is hard to argue against this now. 1/
27
160
715
4
20
87
Maybe!
Yet, both OECD data and my personal experience of having team members working in Italy, Germany and France show that of those three countries, Italy has the most flexible Labour market.
PS Italy has many problems, but Labour market reform is not the most pressing.
Italy needs labor market reform. One way to see this is to look at unemployment in COVID. The US saw its unemployment rate rise (lhs), but it's now falling rapidly. In Italy, unemployment rose & stayed up (rhs). When you lose a job in Italy, it's much harder to get another one...
13
12
78
3
18
86
Brilliant!
3
14
85
Most confused - and self-contradictory - piece on Europe in years. If euro the problem:
1. Why has nationalism so far only got power US, UK, Poland, Czech etc, and no Eurozone country?
2. Why has Slovakia grown faster and w less volatility that Czech Rep?
10
34
81
Timothy Ash is right! This is a very troublesome story on so many levels.
One thing is clear: If anything like this happened in the private financial sector, there would be consequences for those responsible.
3
16
82
It’s impossible to celebrate a daily death toll of 601, but it feels like Italy is on the right track. What a relief!
I think I speak on behalf of most Europeans when I express my deepest admiration and respect for the way Italians have handled this so far.
++ Italy's 🇮🇹 number of registered Covid-19 cases grows by 8.1%. First time it is down to single digit.
Today's death toll is 601 down from 651 & 793 in the previous two days.
Italy went into lockdown two weeks ago. Scientists said it would take two weeks to see some results.
111
2K
6K
4
13
81
This chart says:
1. If energy prices continue to increase => further erosion of households purchasing power. A mon pol tightening would then be a double-whammy for the economy
2. If energy prices flatten (or fall) from here, the inflation jump is soon over => no need to tighten
2
35
82
And I ask again, how in the world can this be acceptable inside a currency union (appropriately) obsessed with fiscal responsibility?
2021 country-by-country data are out:
US multinationals booked more profits in Ireland and Singapore than in the UK + Canada + Germany + Mexico + China + India combined
Congratulations to the highly productive Irish & Singapore workers*!
* and also to the tax accountants
25
358
978
4
21
82
On these numbers, the UK will need to allocate a greater share of its tax revenue to interest payments in the years to come than Italy.
Just saying.
8
34
81
You look at this and you wonder why the German, French and Italian leaders allowed the Dutch leader to chop away at their plan for Europe....
This is NOT a level playing field!
A little bit on the geography of the profits U.S. firms earn abroad ...
Say in the euro area.
Notice a pattern?
There is no real correlation between the size of the profits of US firms and the size of the country's economy ...
1/n
26
379
675
5
22
81
Great reminder: Italy’s key problem is NOT public debt, and definitely not fiscal balances - but fiscal composition is an issue.
Key problem: low growth, caused partly by demographics and very low participation rate for women.
Fiscal needs to be decomposed to encourage growth.
Italy will run large primary deficits (excl. interest payments) this year and in 2021 due to the Corona crisis.
But remember: 🇮🇹 recorded a primary budget SURPLUS in 24 out of 25 years before Corona, i.e. it was more "frugal" than any other country - with negative growth effects
15
138
383
6
19
79
You really need to reveal who those folks “behind closed doors” are. You are, of course, aware that you are accusing
@ecb
GC members of misusing their mandates to drive elected officials towards certain policies - a very serious accusation of misuse of public office.
Behind closed doors, there is a feeling that Italy's spread has been too low for too long. That stymied needed reforms and drove away private investors who want a higher yield. So spread widening after yesterday's ECB meeting is partly by design. Back to more market discipline...
54
51
208
13
21
76
Excellent chart!
But wait a minute! We Europeans thought that all we needed to make the currency union work was (i) a federal budget, (ii) integrated capital market, and (iii) true free labour mobility.
The US has it all, and yet, this chart!
The overall US labor market looks very healthy. But the underlying picture is troubling. For example, the employment-to-population ratio in "blue" states is the most above that in "red" states since 1990/91. The political divide in the US is really an economy one. A policy issue.
15
54
129
4
22
74
A summary of my impressions from a week in Washington at the IMF spring meetings: on geopolitics, Trump and the economies, particularly US fiscal and Fed and ECB policies.
2
16
77
Maybe - or maybe not. But are we not getting a tad ahead of ourselves now? - a country with 10% unemployment provides a bit of fiscal stimulus, while keeping deficit at 2.4% of GDP - and the commentariat and markets go crazy, talking about restructuring and exit. Seriously?
Europe’s leaders could soon find themselves facing the awful options of trying to rescue Italy, overseeing an unprecedented debt restructuring, or allowing the euro’s third-largest economy to exit. Our
@bopinion
editorial.
5
34
27
12
36
74
With all respect, crisis and a hard landing seem to have been your baseline ever since you started forecasting, no?
An economic & financial hard landing has been my baseline for over a year now. Now it is clearly unavoidable. Economic stability & fighting inflation require raising policy rates much higher. But now financial stability risks require lower policy rates. So we will great a crisis
41
124
382
10
4
73
In today’s Sunday Wrap: The great inflation debate btw Team Temporary and Team Permanent - and what the central banks should do about it - heated up this last week, particularly in the US.
I summarise the arguments and explain why I’m on Team Temporary
4
15
72
Today’s Sunday Wrap .... in defence of ECB policies.
Lots of criticism, latest by Issing, Stark et al. but I argue that
@ecb
had no choice and that 2%-5% inflation is better for LT growth than 1%.
We need big fiscal package. I suggest a composition
4
16
70
This is end of supply shock. Spain is 1st because of faster pass-through; others to follow. Inflation was never a demand story
Note this happens before
@ecb
policies begin to bite. I worry about post-summer when tourism is over and mon pol hits full on
5
31
71
In today’s Sunday Wrap:
- why I’m more worried about 2020 growth than everyone else (it seems), but less pessimistic about the medium term.
- how I think the ECB and Germany will resolve the mess of Tuesday’s Constitutional Court ruling.
2
21
70
What good citizens those farmers are ….
Most subsidised sector (by other people’s tax money) in the EU - by a mile - and the least productive (measured as share of GDP/share of employment).
Things are heating up here at the farmers’ protests, with tires being set alight just a few buildings down from where EU Agri ministers are meeting
33
68
119
9
13
68
Don’t pretend you speak for “the little guy”:
The little guy” is not hit by neg rates, because banks take the pain for him on his deposits
But he does suffer because his government refuses to boost borrowing (at neg real rates!) to invest in better digitalisation and school
Good morning on ECB day from
#Germany
where savers continue to suffer from ECB's financial repression. 10y German real yields (yields-inflation) stuck at -1.7% despite decent econ growth & record low unemployment rate. But the little guy shouldn't hope too much from tdy's meeting
11
23
33
8
27
68
@ecb
is losing control of narrative and guidance
With the shift toward removal of mon stimulus, the reference to financing conditions was replaced by vague messages of normalisation and pursuit of (elusive) neutral rate - and markets went crazy
2
11
66
7 years, 800 negotiators (on Canadian side alone), and financial sector not included. Good luck to the UK and its 20 trade experts.
4
85
66
If I were German taxpayer, I would be upset about the loss I have already suffered on Commerzbank, and I would be furious at prospect of doubling down and also having to own Deutsche
And I would wonder what all the EU talk of us taxpayers not being exposed to banks was all about
8
30
65
“Teams from the US, Canada France and the U.K. search the ocean” for 5 missing wealthy men who - for fun- went down in some sort of mini-sub to look at the Titanic.
Just imagine, for a second, if similar effort was made to rescue the thousands of refugees in jeopardy at sea.
5
18
67
In the first post-summer Sunday Wrap I summarise why I’m getting nervous about the post-pandemic growth trajectory and what it may mean (or not…) for monetary policy in the US and Europe.
3
17
65
Inside the Eurozone, let’s start with a conversation about the conduct of Ireland, Luxembourg and the Netherlands.
If I were finance minister of any other EU country, I would raise it in every single Ecofin meeting and insist on a debate of it before we discuss any fiscal rule
Tax havens distort the world's economy and fuel economic inequality. They deserve a closer look:
108
216
455
4
23
66
Variufakis had his 15 min of fame after he was pull out of obscurity to run the ministry at a critical time - only to be found too light weigh for the job.
Let’s move on…
Varoufakis is truly the Nigel Farage of Greek politics.
- Attracts a small but vocal group of acolytes and an opposing bunch of exercised haters
- given endless space by an awed media
- repeated electoral disasters
- an inability to be shamed from trying, trying again.
24
72
277
2
6
64
In today’s Sunday - the first in 2022, and in my new role as advisor:
My old research team’s key risks, themes and issues for 2022 (and mine).
1
6
66
Why so polite? Anyone considering buying crypto needs to understand:
1. There is NO underlying asset, so you buy a piece of nothing!
2. It’s not legal tender anywhere, i.e. In no country on earth will you have the right to use it for any purchase.
I.e. It’s uniquely worthless!
Buying crypto? Educate yourself and understand the risks. Read more:
#CryptoBuying
#FinancialEducation
#ConsumerProtection
38
4
24
467
9
65
This is the Europe we hope for:
German finance ministry’s chief economist
@jakob_eu
advertises for BMF economists in English,
And
@agnesbq1
retweets in French encouraging young French polyglots to apply.
So why not! Hej, unge danske økonomer, her er en fantastisk job mulighed
Jeunes économistes français polyglottes, allez-y, c'est le moment d'œuvrer à la convergence franco-allemande.
3
11
41
0
16
65
“even France, where Macron is making many new debts at the moment”....
Truly terrifying! Oh wait:
interest rates are negative. I can invest and the next generation, who’ll benefit, will pay less back than the cost.
6
15
64
This is an absurd accusation
Why single out Germany? Is it more responsible for financing Russia’s war than anyone else who is buying anything from Russia? (And on your logic, tariffs or price ceilings on Russian gas purchases would still label buyers as financiers of genocide)
Shame on Germany - responsible for the biggest genocide in Europe in WW2, now responsible for financing a second by buying Russian energy.
210
1K
9K
81
6
61