Daniel Reeves
@dreev
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Co-founder of Beeminder (@bmndr). http://t.co/gwrSQVPlNe
Portland, OR
Joined March 2007
PS, found it!
as a sidenote, one reason I really like Leo is because he maintains a kind of "pragmatic cautious optimism" around AI. he thinks it's a civilizationally important project and a matter of urgent national security. he thinks AGI and maybe ASI is possible, but he isn't a doomer. in
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Oh yeah, I started a weekly newsletter about AGI timelines called AGI Friday.
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First-world problem: dozens of people are suddenly signing up for AGI Friday, seemingly largely from Twitter, and I can't figure out how to find the tweet that's doing it 😭
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The word "the" in phrases like "the faster we go, the sooner we'll get there" is not the word "the" as we know it. It's a homophone! It used to be spelled "tha" or "þa" and is basically used for if-then statements. "Tha more tha merrier" is "more ⟹ merrier" or "more ∝ merrier".
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6 years later and I think Tesla is predicting 1 more year? Still over-optimistic but Waymo can now do this at least in Phoenix. We're getting there!
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Last week we fixed an issue that was causing our feedback pop up to pop up too often! 😅 On the brightside we did get some feedback from a customer that our "user support is stunning and second only to beeminder"! #buildinpublic
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New paper with R. Freeman, @pennockd, @dreev, B. Waggoner https://t.co/NrKyOq4SGL "Towards a Theory of Confidence in Market-Based Predictions": can you create a margin-of-error for a probability? How does that relate to volatility? Paper asks as many questions as it solves!
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one little fact about the world that makes me sad about once a month is when people who are really doing fine and could raise a great family but are much too aware of all their sundry emotional issues tell me they never plan to have kids
one big fact about the world that makes me sad is that every day, thousands of ppl with deep emotional issues, who are likely not aware they have deep issues and will never resolve those issues in their lifetime, announce that they're pregnant
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We're looking for someone to help out with our user support. Let us know if you're interested or know someone who might be good for the role!
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What's the principle called where penalties have to be multiplied by the reciprocal of the probability of getting caught, otherwise technically-rational agents just take the calculated risk of committing the crime?
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I feel like coding is like: You keep adding duct tape & chewing gum to satisfy different requirements & bugs that come up, then you gradually whittle it back down and end up with a few simple lines and it's bewildering how you were too dumb to've just written that from the start
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I have a new appreciation for how the Axiom of Choice is kind of a wild leap of faith that leads to preposterosities like Banach-Tarski:
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If you had a million dollars, would it be better to (a) deposit $.01 in 100M random people's bank accounts, (b) deposit it in 1 random person's bank account, or (c) literally set it on fire? No "none of the above" option. HT @ciphergoth
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Which is down from the 99% I started at before learning that the characters “[]()!+” are Turing-compete in javascript! But it’s fine, right?
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Ie, is it safe to do, eg, eval(“2*(3+4)”) on the server if the “2*(3+4)” came from a possibly malicious user? I’m 95% sure it’s fine…
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In javascript or ruby or python, can you execute arbitrary code with just digits, the 4 basic arithmetic operators, and parens?
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Fun fact: In javascript you can execute arbitrary code using nothing but the 6 characters )(][!+ https://t.co/HvxvGJVgOT Related question:
en.wikipedia.org
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