Rafa
@DeepInversion
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Former commodities trader. Now running a software startup. Interested in markets & technology.
West Coast
Joined July 2023
I am monitoring 3 restaurant chains - $CMG, $SG, $CAVA relative to $QQQ. All three restaurant chains have been accelerating relative to $QQQ on a 3 month time frame. With $CAVA in the lead.
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Main Street liquidity engine continues its build out!
Treasury is implementing President Trump’s No Tax on American Car Loan Interest, putting money back in the pockets of working and middle-class families. For new U.S.-assembled vehicles purchased in 2025-2028, eligible taxpayers can deduct up to $10,000 per year in auto loan
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$SPY The last 2 harmonic pattern completions occurred 1. Feb ‘25 2. July ‘24 When patterns complete, they lead to shorter duration corrections ~ 1 month off their tops. Also, the 2 harmonic pattern completions had confluence with selloff alerts. We are in the same predicament.
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This isn’t “fear mongering” but as traders we all use signals to gauge what the market is doing & this is a huge 🚧 signal. This is a bellwether stock. I just bought some $690 $SPY puts for late January as a hedge. Proceed at your own risk. If $SPY moves to $700 I’ll add again
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Side note for today… Canada just lost all leverage with the USA, Prime Minister Carney over played his hand. The US doesn’t need Canadian oil anymore. L Canada.
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The last 12 hours have been absolutely insane: 1. 10:30 PM ET: Chinese officials arrive in Venezuela to meet with President Maduro 2. 1:15 AM ET: Unexpected airstrikes in Venezuela begin 3. 2:40 AM ET: President Trump confirms he has ordered strikes 4. 4:20 AM ET: President
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SPY/QQQ past 3 months. Chart Below. Note that the low in late October came with the Dec rate cut odds on @Polymarket surpassing 50%. With the rate cut come and gone, will surpass the period high ratio - 1.1182 by todays close. $SPY accelerating VS $QQQ is emerging.
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Bitcoin's 10-day rolling volatility is at its lowest level in history. It has traded within a 4.5% range for two weeks running. Either a bottom is forming, or BTC will be just as measured on the way down as it was on the way up.
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Algo-Succession completed today. Let the games begin.
4 days back to back no algo-succession. Last time we had this many was the first week of Dec ‘24 (we had 5). See your daily chart to see what that led to.
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It looks as though $Bitcoin will close 2025 at or slightly above the 'inflation adjusted high' from Nov 2021 - 69k. Cumulative inflation Nov 2021 - Dec 2025 ~ 25% 69k x 1.25 = $86,250
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Market cap at cash reserve value. Ok that’s why the puts at the bottom of the chain are so pricey…
$MSTR is down almost 50% in 2025 and the mNAV hit a 20% discount. 2026 will be better... right? right? right? My 4 @strategy predictions for 2026: 1. MSCI delisting in Q1 2. No SP500 listing 3. @saylor will sell #bitcoin aggressively in 2026 4. Market Cap will go towards its
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There are puts struck at 20 on $MSTR a year out and further. And they are expensive... Speculators think will trade there. There is a CME gap at $9600 from 2019.
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2026 Will a difficult year for the whole crypto complex.
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Michael Howell says the US liquidity cycle has peaked and expects 2026 to be a down year for US liquidity but a potential up year for Chinese liquidity. In his estimation these will combine to produce a stronger US dollar, flatter yield curves, and defensive and commodity
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Treasury Bond Volatility is on track for its largest annual decline since the Global Financial Crisis 🚨🤯
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Great chart. $Bitcoin Nov 2021 ATH $69K. Now ~$88k. Nominal gain ~28%. But hold on... Cumulative CPI inflation over 4 years ~25%. Real break even price today to match 2021 peak purchasing power is ~$84K–$86K. Yikes!
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Today’s 10% move in Silver is a 4-5 sigma event. A 3.8 sigma move is the chance that you personally get hit by lightning at least once in your lifetime…so not likely. You are witnessing history today.
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