Rafa
@DeepInversion
Followers
631
Following
973
Media
96
Statuses
1K
Former commodities trader. Now running a software startup. Interested in markets & technology.
West Coast
Joined July 2023
The last 12 hours have been absolutely insane: 1. 10:30 PM ET: Chinese officials arrive in Venezuela to meet with President Maduro 2. 1:15 AM ET: Unexpected airstrikes in Venezuela begin 3. 2:40 AM ET: President Trump confirms he has ordered strikes 4. 4:20 AM ET: President
365
2K
15K
SPY/QQQ past 3 months. Chart Below. Note that the low in late October came with the Dec rate cut odds on @Polymarket surpassing 50%. With the rate cut come and gone, will surpass the period high ratio - 1.1182 by todays close. $SPY accelerating VS $QQQ is emerging.
0
0
0
Bitcoin's 10-day rolling volatility is at its lowest level in history. It has traded within a 4.5% range for two weeks running. Either a bottom is forming, or BTC will be just as measured on the way down as it was on the way up.
8
9
127
Algo-Succession completed today. Let the games begin.
4 days back to back no algo-succession. Last time we had this many was the first week of Dec ‘24 (we had 5). See your daily chart to see what that led to.
3
2
38
It looks as though $Bitcoin will close 2025 at or slightly above the 'inflation adjusted high' from Nov 2021 - 69k. Cumulative inflation Nov 2021 - Dec 2025 ~ 25% 69k x 1.25 = $86,250
0
0
0
Market cap at cash reserve value. Ok that’s why the puts at the bottom of the chain are so pricey…
$MSTR is down almost 50% in 2025 and the mNAV hit a 20% discount. 2026 will be better... right? right? right? My 4 @strategy predictions for 2026: 1. MSCI delisting in Q1 2. No SP500 listing 3. @saylor will sell #bitcoin aggressively in 2026 4. Market Cap will go towards its
0
0
0
There are puts struck at 20 on $MSTR a year out and further. And they are expensive... Speculators think will trade there. There is a CME gap at $9600 from 2019.
0
0
0
2026 Will a difficult year for the whole crypto complex.
0
1
1
Michael Howell says the US liquidity cycle has peaked and expects 2026 to be a down year for US liquidity but a potential up year for Chinese liquidity. In his estimation these will combine to produce a stronger US dollar, flatter yield curves, and defensive and commodity
81
140
836
Treasury Bond Volatility is on track for its largest annual decline since the Global Financial Crisis 🚨🤯
19
82
472
Great chart. $Bitcoin Nov 2021 ATH $69K. Now ~$88k. Nominal gain ~28%. But hold on... Cumulative CPI inflation over 4 years ~25%. Real break even price today to match 2021 peak purchasing power is ~$84K–$86K. Yikes!
1
0
2
Today’s 10% move in Silver is a 4-5 sigma event. A 3.8 sigma move is the chance that you personally get hit by lightning at least once in your lifetime…so not likely. You are witnessing history today.
512
2K
14K
2025 is the metals year!
0
0
0
BREAKING 🚨: Campbell's Soup $CPB plunges to its lowest price since the Global Financial Crisis 📉
98
92
681
$Bitcoin market cap is mostly a pair trade against a weak yen, weak UST, and low vol equities. Yen reverting ZROZ accelerating ahead of IBIT Low Vol (dollar general etc) outperforming IBIT & QQQ. As the pairs get covered, BTC will continue to shed market cap.
0
0
4
😂
If you bought Silver yesterday, you'd have outperformed someone holding $ETH for 4 years.
0
0
1
Back below 98 on the DXY. $SPY back to ATH territory. We have higher to grind still.
0
0
1
Activist investor Elliott builds over $1 billion stake in Lululemon, puts forth CEO candidate. https://t.co/rsOcMJKs4I
cnbc.com
The activist investor is bringing a CEO candidate to the struggling retailer after it announced last week Calvin McDonald would step down in January.
0
1
1