PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL MAP | A Widespread Significant Winterstorm is growing increasingly likely this weekend across the Northeast and Ohio Valley. Currently, I have moderate confidence in this forecast but let me explain how this map came to fruition: #ECwx

Our Pieces continue to slowly evolve as our System begins to come together. We can see the Upper-Mid Levels continue to build in moisture as the first part of our system develops in the South-Central Plains along with moisture building from the GOM. Here comes Day One! #ECwx

Public Impact Map, I feel pretty good about this forecast. The ranges are simple for zones 2 through 4; the more sleet, the lower the totals.

What is currently visible | Radar is able to pick up signs of lift in lower levels from the GOM which will move into the South-Central US over time. Our 2nd Shortwave is gradually drift SE with our HP pushing SE as well. To sum it up, our pieces are slowly coming together!

Here it comes. Lead pieces interacting. Drop in from Montana wintry kickstart.

It’s a BIG ONE ❄️

My First Call For Snowfall 📊 Also calculating odds for precipitation types to expect. 🙏 I hope this helps (and it confirms). Please let me know if this helps simplify... 📏 ❄️ AT LEAST 6 inches of snow for most of our region. Yes, there is upside potential if the mix is later

RT @weatherwilly: *Thursday Night Storm Update* Short video is best summary of my current thinking. Major impacts to be expected Sunday an…

If I went a bit warmer on the Current call it’d look like this. Great call by my buddy here Manny!

❄ FIRST-CALL SNOWFALL FORECAST ❄ A major Winter Storm incoming this weekend for the region. The most snow in a decade for many. Intense snow rates are likely from DC-Boston. However, a mix will occur at and/or south of NYC. Stay Tuned! #njwx #pawx #mdwx #nywx #snow #wxtwitter

**Forecast Update** Major Winter Storm on track Sunday AM-Monday Below is my updated snowfall forecast. Next map update will be final forecast tomorrow night. Goal is to not have to change this much. Video out soon.

Here is my first snowfall forecast for this weekend's major winter storm. Note that this forecast doesn't include sleet or ice, which will be a major component of the storm along the southern snow gradient. Leaning towards bullseyes in Southern PA and Eastern MA.

Does anyone not understand the probability map? What we tried to do here is set a low/floor. The message is "this is the minimum you can expect" but it could be higher. Also, I don't believe mixing gets that far north, but it's probability, so we acknowledged the possibility.

** PENNSYLVANIA MAJOR WINTER STORM UPDATE 1.5 ** Here is what I would call "Update 1 and a half". Unfortunately, while I thought initially the Arctic high pressure would help to nudge the sleet line south of the state, the trends today have been toward the opposite, and it is

Amazing analysis, with solid points brought to the table with a colder solution than most I’ve seen.

I also think the Nam is handling this the best so far

Latest NBM is still very impressive, but I encourage caution with some of the snow totals, especially near and south of I-95. Mixing toward the end of the storm is becoming a more likely scenario, so totals below the blue line I've drawn are likely overdone. Question is by how

GFS is an Outlier By the Way!

Can you find it?

Unfortunately, running out of Time here but Backside snowfall it’s moisture is supportive will assist in a secondary burst in Heavy snowfall on the Backside especially NW of I-95 as every reverses back to all snow due to CAA. More personal notes below 👇

No matter what occurs everyone will start as ALL SNOW and Heavy at that. Such WAA clashing with CAD from a 1040 mb High will cause intense 700-850 mb FGen (or strong lifting) to support 1-3” Snowfall rates from the Mid-Atlantic to Southern New England for a few Hours.