Great to be back on the show @scottmelker though wish it was under better circumstances ... crossing my fingers than I'm not being naively optimistic about a December recovery ...

Why can't BLS publish October's data? Most don't realize that Bureau of Labor Statistics data collection is still shockingly manual, even in 2025. ~2/3 of CPI data is hand-gathered via in-person B&M store visits. Jobs & payrolls? Phone surveys & faxes. That's not a typo. Faxes.

My obligatory tourist visit after a week long business trip to Sydney and Singapore ...

Don't panic. I never said things weren't ugly out there. They most definitely are. My guess is liquidity will thin out into US Thanksgiving holidays. But then traders will realize how badly they're mispricing rate cuts. QT ends on Dec 1, Fed cuts 25bps on Dec 10, markets inflect

#Bitcoin markets outlook from my interview with @SkyNewsAust

Saylor to the rescue with STRE sale, but $100K remains an important battleground for #Bitcoin based on the distribution of costs basis across total available supply. A large concentration of supply is clustered around acquisition prices of between $98K and $100K.

Over much of the last year, BTC spot positioning (i.e. net short-term holders) has largely converged with perp funding rates and inverted options skew—capturing spikes like the Nov 2024 election demand surge and the April 2025 Liberation Day dump. But lately, seems like the

Seeing the buzz on X about standard M2 money supply missing the signal on recent #BTC dump—it's true, unadjusted versions often lag and decouple late-cycle. But adjusted indexes can capture nuances better for timely insights - see chart 👇 What tweaks to M2 have you found useful?

Love the fact that even the Fed is talking about x402 and the payments revolution https://t.co/jzDkfinoCg

Crypto's still navigating a tough macro environment—even after October's brutal sell-off wiped out $19B in leverage. The risks pile on from escalating trade wars, US sanctions on Russian oil, ballooning fiscal deficits, and bubbly valuations in stocks & beyond. My thoughts 🧵👇

I'm not a fan of the FUD generated every time we see a large BTC move from dormant wallets. Yes, the pace of inactive BTC wallets springing to life has accelerated this year. But analyzing this activity is only valuable when paired with data on where these coins are going and

Fed cuts 25bps as expected. No major surprises in the statement; market seems nonplussed. Notes: 🔹One hawkish dissent (Jeffrey Schmid) for no cut 🔹One dovish dissent (Stephen Miran — expected) for 50bps cut 🔹QT to end in December 1 as Powell telegraphed = balance sheet stable

Since October 10, we've seen a clear sector rotation in crypto markets, shifting away from pure speculative bets toward "utility + yield" focused narratives. Smart money is pouring into yield protocols, capitalizing on post-crash opportunities that have pushed APYs back into

Based on an analysis of breakeven levels from straddle and strangle options strategies on bitcoin, the market's implied probability distribution for BTC prices over the next 3-6 months shows a current range spanning from $90k on the downside to $160k on the upside. A short 🧵👇

Excited to announce that starting October 28, early access to Coinbase Research reports—featuring weekly, monthly, and quarterly commentary on crypto markets, macro trends, tokenomics, and more—will be exclusive to institutional clients and Coinbase One (US) subscribers,

Where are the DATs? BTC digital asset treasury companies (DATs) have largely ghosted the post-Oct 10 drawdown and are yet to re-engage. Over the last two weeks, BTC buying by DATs fell to near year-to-date lows and has not meaningfully recovered, even on green days. A short 🧵👇

BLS drops Sept 2025 CPI amid the government shutdown—headline & core BOTH at 3.0% YoY, BEATING median forecasts of 3.1%! 📉 This rare data release (to hit SSA's COLA deadline) dodged shutdown-induced glitches, but markets braced for a volatility bomb. Instead? A dovish gift that

List of Missing US Data Releases Due to Shutdown: 🔹Nonfarm Payrolls 🔹Initial Jobless Claims 🔹Factory Orders 🔹Retail Sales 🔹Producer Price Index 🔹Construction Spending 🔹Trade Balance 🔹Wholesale Inventories 🔹Real Earnings 🔹Business Inventories 🔹Housing Starts/Building