Daniel Hornung
@DanielZHornung
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Former NEC46 Deputy Director, Obama OMB and WH Alum, Econ, Budget/Tax, Housing Wonk
Joined January 2017
Joined @CNBC to discuss how tariffs are now raising prices in import sensitive categories, just as they are slowing economic/employment growth. Also talked the importance of completely nonpartisan BLS data and the upcoming rise in health care premiums.
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RT @ernietedeschi: On the core goods side, several tariff-sensitive items are still above pre-2025 trend price levels. The most significant….
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RT @mtkonczal: Now I preregistered those categories above, but here are the 12 highest price increases for goods against trendlines. I ass….
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It's hard to argue that a merged entity would mean lower mortgage rates, when Fannie and Freddie already issue unified mortgage backed securities -- especially if there is no explicit government guarantee or similar/higher capital requirements.
One way to reduce mortgage rates would be to merge Fannie and Freddie. A merger would enable them to achieve huge synergies both in their operations and in the trading price and spreads of their MBS, savings which could be passed along to consumers in the form of reduced mortgage
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(8) Will they continue to offer a standard and consumer friendly loss mitigation waterfall for when borrowers fall behind during downturns?.
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(6) Will the companies continue to prioritize homeownership for underserved markets and play an active role in affordable and workforce multifamily?. (7) Will the companies continue efforts to reduce closing costs?.
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(4) What will happen with the government's ownership position in the companies? . (5) If there are proceeds from a sale, how will they be used? If for housing construction, how will the program be structured? If for deficit reduction, will CBO score it that way?.
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8 questions that need to be answered:. (1) What kind of govt guarantee will be in place and what will the impact be on mortgage rates/fees?. (2) How will taxpayers be compensated?. (3) Why would investors purchase shares if the companies are in conservatorship, especially now?.
Exclusive: The Trump administration is preparing to sell stock in mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in an offering it believes could raise around $30 billion and kick off later this year
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RT @JulieSuLabor: As he mentioned during this @Groundwork event, the last time @DanielZHornung and I saw each other was on the last Jobs Da….
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Yes exactly. These would likely have a much bigger impact on long-term rates that affect the real economy, than the Fed cutting short-term rates at its next meeting.
Pause blanket tariffs, focus on strategic or security elements and do them with certainty. Halt deportation quotas that hit long-settled, nonviolent immigrant workers. These could be done this afternoon. They will matter far, far more to stopping a downturn than any Fed cut.
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Other than the pandemic months, you have to go back to September 2010 to get a worse three months of payroll job growth. We're not in a recession, but can now say that tariffs are meaningfully showing up on both the economic activity and inflation side of the equation.
At just over 35k, the 3-month average of payroll growth is at its lowest level since June 2020, during the heart of the pandemic. With inflation also moving higher, you couldn't think of a worse time to announce a stagflationary tariff increase like the one announced last night.
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Seems like a bad time to announce new tariffs that increase prices and slow growth, but maybe I'm missing something.
Terrible 24 hours for the Fed. Core PCE inflation year-on-year tenacious, now at 2.8%. And now a weak employment report. Should never overweight a single month, but employment-population ratio down -0.53pp over last 6 months, LFPR down -0.4pp. Payrolls +35K 3MMA.
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At just over 35k, the 3-month average of payroll growth is at its lowest level since June 2020, during the heart of the pandemic. With inflation also moving higher, you couldn't think of a worse time to announce a stagflationary tariff increase like the one announced last night.
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Joined @BloombergTV to discuss the shifts in tariff rates: from an average rate of 2%, to nearly 30%, and now approaching 20%. Despite the focus on the binary question of recession, tariffs are already increasing inflation and slowing growth, and those impacts are set to grow.
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The economy moved towards slower growth in the first half of 2025 -- both real GDP growth and the core GDP measure the Administration used last quarter. A lot of focus on binary recession or not, but tariffs/uncertainty were slowing the economy even in the first half of the year.
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To ask tomorrow: Does the Administration still think GDP is backward-looking and look at core GDP instead? If so (and I think they were right), then look at core GDP over H1 2025, which likely won't work as well for their argument as it did last quarter.
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A $50 billion rural hospital stabilization fund to offset effects of Medicaid cuts. A $600 per person rebate to offset effects of tariffs. In both cases, I can think of a simpler way. .
BREAKING: Senator Hawley introduces bill to send $600 tariff rebate checks to Americans.
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RT @ArnabDatta321: Amidst this unseemly behavior attacking Chair Powell, seems worth mentioning that the agencies Pulte regulates could jum….
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A lot of meaningful (bipartisan!) reforms:. (1) Linking housing, community development, and transit grants with housing supply outcomes . (2) Making it easier to scale modular, prefab, & manufactured housing. (3) Streamlining requirements for federal financing/ voucher programs.
Late breaking news: Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass) have released a massive bipartisan housing bill ahead of a markup expected next week. Read the 315-page bill here:
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Gambling tax, Medicaid provider tax changes, SNAP error rate policy. Truly astounding how many policies Congressional Rs now say they do not support in the bill they voted for just this month.
NEWS from Las Vegas: Ways & Means Chair @RepJasonSmith told me in an interview he wants to REVERSE the gambling tax hike from the One Big Beautiful Bill. SMITH said it was a "bad decision" & could "absolutely" be undone by year-end. He floated it as part of a bipartisan package.
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