David Leonhardt
@DLeonhardt
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Senior writer, New York Times. Author of the "Ours Was the Shining Future: The Story of the American Dream" (Random House, Oct. 2023), available for preorder.
Washington, DC
Joined July 2010
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I consider this chart to be the clearest indictment of our country’s path over the last several decades: In 1980, the U.S. had a typical life expectancy for an affluent country. Today, the U.S. has the lowest life expectancy of any affluent country:
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Watch how radically taxes on the wealthy have fallen over the past 70 years:
(Full column: )
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After we published a list of Trump's lies this summer, some of his supporters asked us to compare Trump to other presidents. We've done so and just published the results:
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1. The unrelenting chaos that President Trump creates can sometimes obscure the big picture. But the big picture is simple: The United States has never had a president as demonstrably unfit for the office.
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Last year, for the first time on record, the 400 wealthiest Americans paid a lower total tax rate than any other income group.
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The Fox News timeline is so illuminating:
1. Network star instinctively denies a report that sounds bad for Trump.
2. Fox’s actual journalists confirm report.
3. Star has to reverse himself.
4. Trump cries “Fake News!” and the network re-reverses itself.
All in 12 hours!
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Subscribers of the NYT, WaPo & other publications are paying for the investigations and oversight that the U.S. Congress won't conduct.
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Our president is a liar. The question now is how serious his lies are.
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The best way to keep the economy strong — by far — would have been to take the virus seriously in January and February.
A massive increase in testing and quarantining could have significantly reduced the spread of the virus. (1/n)
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President Trump is now claiming that he always took coronavirus seriously. In fact, he spent months dismissing it as less serious than the seasonal flu. During this time, he could have taken actions that would have saved lives. He chose not to.
Here are the facts:
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Sons who brag about Russian money. A history of shady Russian deals. Paranoia about scrutiny of his businesses. And a harassment campaign against the government's top experts in Russian crime.
There really are a lot of reasons to worry about laundering.
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Wow: Households making $5+ million get an average tax cut of $300k.
Households making below $55,000 get a tax hike.
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American children are starting 2022 in crisis.
I'm not sure that many people fully grasp the depth of it.
🧵
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House Democrats should refuse to pass any big stimulus bill without provisions to ensure that the country can hold a presidential election in November. They have the leverage to do so.
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If you’ve already written (or read!) a piece about Howard Schultz and you’re tempted to do another, ask yourself:
Have I written about each of the non-billionaires planning to run? Kirsten Gillibrand? Julian Castro? Pete Buttigieg? Kamala Harris? Elizabeth Warren? ...
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I just took a 1,600-mile road trip from Washington to St. Louis and back. I was shaken by what I saw.
(1/x)
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If they win, Biden and Harris will be the first President/Vice President in 40 years not to have an Ivy League degree.
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The Vice President of the United States is for a man who thinks Muslims should be barred from Congress and homosexuality should be illegal.
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Let's be clear here: Charles Grassley is a United States Senator. He is responsible for his words. And his words here amount to an anti-Semitic smear.
Maria Bartiromo asked Chuck Grassley this morning if he thinks George Soros is paying the elevator protesters. "I have heard so many people believe that. I tend to believe it," Grassley said. Trump tweeted the accusation about 80 minutes later
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"We have it very well under control."
"We pretty much shut it down."
"The numbers are going to get progressively better."
"We’re going very substantially down, not up."
"One day — it’s like a miracle — it will disappear."
None of it was true.
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The current outbreak in the U.S. looks like nothing in any other rich country:
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Every one of the last four Republican presidents has increased the deficit. Every one of the last three Democratic presidents has reduced the deficit.
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I feel like I just drove across a country that’s losing a winnable fight.
(fin)
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We cannot know his private thoughts. But his behavior is clear, and we shouldn’t be afraid to admit it: President Donald Trump is a racist.
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The main message of the IG report is that President Trump is lying about the Justice Department and FBI.
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The United States has entered a serious national security conflict, and the whole world knows our president is a habitual liar.
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Senator Rubio, I’m disappointed that you are spreading false conspiracy theories for the sake of partisan gain.
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For weeks, the public messages about vaccines have been more negative than the facts warrant.
Now we are seeing the cost: A large percentage of Americans wouldn't take a vaccine if offered one.
🧵...
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3. This list instead focuses on demonstrable ways that Trump has broken the law or violated his oath.
ONE: Trump has used the presidency for personal enrichment.
TWO: He has violated campaign finance law.
THREE: He has obstructed justice.
FOUR: He has subverted democracy.
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Donald Trump has been obsessed with race the entire time that’s he’s been a public figure. Here’s a list of his many racist statements, with video:
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Clinton is on pace to win the popular vote by a larger % than Gore in 2000.
And Nixon in 1968.
And Kennedy in 1960.
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Calling Mexicans rapists
Mocking a POW
Mocking the disabled
Banning Muslims
Cozying up to Putin
Calling women dogs
And they're "stunned."
Republicans I talk to tonight are sort of stunned. They knew Trump was dangerous for the party. They didn't know he was this dangerous.
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The evidence so far suggests that a full vaccine dose:
1. effectively eliminates the risk of Covid death
2. nearly eliminates the risk of hospitalization
3. drastically reduces the ability to infect somebody else.
All of that is also true about the virus variants.
(7/x)
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One reason the U.S. is suffering through a worse outbreak than any other rich country: The size and strength of right-wing media organizations here that broadcast scientific falsehoods.
There is no equivalent in other countries.
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An incomplete list of times that Australia has been allied with the United States:
WW1
WW2
Korea
Vietnam
Iraq 1
Afghanistan
Iraq 2
ISIS
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Obama was telling the truth. Then the GOP did everything it could to ruin the private markets in Obamacare. Which means that the only way to expand coverage now is government-run insurance.
The GOP has created a choice: Single-payer insurance or millions without insurance.
Barack Obama, 2009: "When you hear the naysayers claim that I’m trying to bring about government-run health care, know this: They’re not telling the truth."
Obama, now: "Medicare-for-all" is a good idea.
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Almost everywhere I stopped — gas stations, rest stops and hotels, across Maryland, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana and Illinois — there was a sign on the door saying that people had to wear masks to enter. And almost everywhere, most people ignored the sign.
(2/x)
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4. For the country’s sake, there is only one acceptable outcome, just as there was after Americans realized in 1974 that a criminal was occupying the Oval Office. The president must go.
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Wisconsin under Scott Walker has had slower average job growth than the other 49 actual states. But Grover is correct to suggest that Wisconsin has had faster job growth than the make-believe 51st through 57th states.
This is the model of how a Republican governor should govern.
All 57 states should be so lucky.
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55 percent of Americans aged 60 or older voted in the 2014 midterm elections.
16 percent of Americans aged 18 to 29 did.
This year, the size of that gap may determine whether the Democrats can win the House.
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5. Achieving this outcome won't be easy. And it should not involve a Democratic House quickly impeaching him -- which would actually be a favor to Trump. But achieving his removal from office is more plausible than many people seem to realize.
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Trump, enemy of democracy:
1) My opponent shouldn't be allowed to run
2) If I lose, I may dispute outcome
3) If I win, she will go to jail.
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Wearing a mask isn’t much fun, I realize. But the inconvenience sure seems worth the benefits.
Study after study has shown that masks reduce the virus’s spread.
(6/x)
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The political divide over vaccinations is so large that almost every reliably blue state now has a higher vaccination rate than almost every reliably red state.
🧵
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Millions of Americans have decided they would prefer more Covid — for their communities and potentially for their families and themselves — to more masks.
(7/x)
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GOP House districts less Republican than PA18:
AL2
AK
AZ2
AZ5
AZ6
AR2
CA1
CA4
CA8
CA10
CA21
CA22
CA25
CA39
CA42
CA45
CA48
CA49
CA50
CO3
CO6
FL3
FL6
FL8
FL15
FL15
FL16
FL17
FL18
FL25
FL26
FL27
GA6
GA7
GA12
IL6
IL12
IL13
IL14
IN2
IN4
IN5
IN8
IN9
IA1
IA3
IA4
(We're not done yet...)
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2. Trump's high crimes and misdemeanors can be separated into four categories. And this list is conservative. It does not include the possibility that his campaign coordinated strategy with Russia, nor his lazy approach to the job, like his refusal to read briefing books.
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Senator Bob Corker said he would oppose any tax bill that added “one penny” to the deficit.
This bill adds approximately 100,000,000,000,000 pennies to the deficit over the next decade.
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Brutal CBS poll on tax bill:
35% approval
24% say it helps their own family, 69% say it helps wealthy
54% say it favors big donors vs 10% who say average Americans
61% say Medicare/Soc. Security cuts will ultimately pay for it
68% say Afford. Care Act changes shouldn't be in bill
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Accelerating the vaccination campaign is an urgent task for Biden, and he seems to have a plan. But if he doesn’t find a way to persuade more Americans to do their part to slow the virus’s spread, a lot more people will die in the meantime.
(8/x)
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He has mused about his supporters -- "the tough people" -- committing violence.
He has talked about “Second Amendment people” preventing the appointment of liberal judges.
He has suggested his supporters “knock the hell” out of hecklers.
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1990:
World population: 5.3 billion
People in extreme poverty: 1.9 billion
Today:
World population: 7.6 billion
People in extreme poverty: 0.7 billion.
@JohnIbbitson
@darrellbricker
@Pop_Council
"Every billion people we add to the planet makes life more difficult for other people, for the poor and for the environment," John Bongaarts of
@Pop_Council
says.
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Nationwide, about half of Americans are not wearing masks when in close contact with people outside their households, according to a survey by the University of Southern California. (5/x)
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When you look at the evidence all in one place, it’s overwhelming: Donald Trump has obstructed justice.
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At a Fairfield Inn in Ohio, a middle-aged couple sat unmasked on a lobby sofa for hours, drinking beers and scrolling through their phones. The hotel staff evidently did nothing about it.
(3/x)
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The CDC says that “less than 10%” of Covid transmission occurs outdoors.
Which sounds like a lot of outdoors transmission. If anything close to 10% was correct, it would mean thousands of deaths were from outdoors transmission.
But the number doesn’t stand up to scrutiny. 🧵
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At a convenience store in Indiana, a hand-drawn sign on the door read: “Face masks are required. Please do not enter without one!!” Customers did anyway.
(4/x)
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Most members of the middle class and poor pay a higher total tax rate than they did a half century ago. The rich pay a much lower rate.
The G.O.P. tax bill will aggravate the situation and turbocharge inequality.
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When the C.D.C. loosened its mask guidelines three weeks ago, many people were anxious: Would it lead unvaccinated people to take off their masks and cause a surge of new cases?
So far, the answer is no. Cases keep falling. And vaccinations of 16+ have stopped falling. 🧵
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What would be a more accurate message about vaccines?
“They’re safe. They’re highly effective against serious disease. And the emerging evidence about infectiousness looks really good. If you have access to a vaccine and you’re eligible, you should get it.” -
@KateGrabowski
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Mueller and Comey have served their country for decades. Yet when confronted with a test of character - having to choose between their personal image and their country - they failed.
Which should make us all the more grateful for Marie Yovanovitch.
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The reporters who broke this story are
@rachanadixit
and
@ddiamond
, of
@politico
. As a taxpayer, I say thank you.
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I tried to buy a rapid at-home Covid test yesterday. It didn’t go well.
The U.S. approach to Covid testing has been a failure — mostly because of an FDA decision to prioritize bureaucratic continuity over Americans’ well being.
But things are about to improve. 🧵
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Arizona has had more new virus cases (per capita) over the last week than any country in the world.
Here's a ranking that treats each U.S. state as a country:
1. Arizona
2. Florida
3. S. Carolina
4. Bahrain
5. Louisiana
6. Qatar
7. Oman
For more:
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Some of the timeliest data on Covid outcomes by vaccination status comes from New York City and the Seattle area, and the two are telling a consistent story.
🧵
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The four large countries where the virus is growing the fastest - Brazil, Russia, the U.K. and U.S. - have something in common. They're led by "illiberal populists" who frequently reject the views of experts.
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Independent sources of information that team Trump has tried to delegitimize:
- federal judges
- media
- intelligence agencies
- CBO
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The U.S. has reached a major milestone in the long struggle against Covid: The total number of Americans dying each day — from any cause — is no longer historically abnormal.
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The Senate tax bill is, at root, a middle-class tax hike to pay for a tax cut for the wealthy.
98% of households making $5+ million get a tax cut.
27% of household making $30k-$100k get a tax cut.
New analysis just out:
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The Green Party continues to be a huge help to the Republican Party.
From Arizona:
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“We’re underselling the vaccine,” Dr. Aaron Richterman at Penn said.
“It’s going to save your life — that’s where the emphasis has to be right now,” Dr. Peter Hotez at Baylor said. (3/x)
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The bottom line: The widespread negative public messaging about the vaccines is fundamentally misleading, and it's damaging to public health.
(fin)
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Obama is no FDR, but he is the most successful Democratic president since FDR. And Trump is unlikely to change that.
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Elizabeth Warren has offered by far the most ambitious agenda of any 2020 candidate. I don't agree with every part of it, but she is trying to solve the central problem in the U.S. economy.
The other candidates should offer their own ambitious solutions.
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In counties where Donald Trump received at least 70 percent of the vote, the virus has killed about 47 out of every 100,000 people since the end of June, per
@charles_gaba
.
In counties where Trump won less than 32 percent of the vote, the number is about 10 out of 100,000.
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Right now, public discussion of the vaccines is full of warnings about their limitations, like: They’re not 100 percent effective. And: Even vaccinated people may be able to spread the virus. And: People shouldn’t change their behavior once they get their shots.
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Covid now presents the sort of risk to most vaccinated people that we unthinkingly accept in other parts of life. And Covid isn’t going to disappear. In many ways, the future has arrived.
So which precautions should stay and which should go?
🧵
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By appearances, they were honoring John McCain and showing what a better America could look like. But it was all an act.
The Congressional Republicans at McCain’s memorial service have rejected his version of America in favor of Trump’s.
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The most significant story of 2018 wasn’t Donald Trump or Robert Mueller. It was climate change.
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Instead of taking the virus seriously in January and February, the president said it was an overhyped problem that was less serious than the flu and would soon disappear.
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One of the great things about capitalism is that it offers a simple solution for “labor shortages”: Pay workers more.
Right now, corporate profits are historically high, and wages are historically low.
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Trump faced a series of choices: Take aggressive measures to slow the spread of the virus? Ramp up efforts to produce test kits. Urge Americans to take precautions? Above all, use the presidency to reduce the number of sick people?
He did none of it.
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More people will get sick. More will die. And the recession will be deeper.
Trump is betting that the scientists, doctors and leaders of other countries are all wrong. If they’re not, he will deserve responsibility for the virus’s human and economic toll. (5/n)
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The old are getting richer, and the young are getting poorer: Over the past three decades, the net worth of the 65+ age group has risen more than 60%. The net worth of the under-45 age group has fallen more than 30%.
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The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are “essentially 100 percent effective against serious disease,” Dr. Paul Offit, the director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, said. “It’s ridiculously encouraging.”
(4/x)
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Wow. It's not as big as Russia, but the signs of a Tom Price personal-enrichment scandal continue to mount.
Scoop: Tom Price bought $90k worth of drug stock, the same day he pushed to kill rule that would hurt co profits.
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Today’s remarks suggest Trump is OK with coronavirus being, in effect, Trumpvirus.
(6/6)
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If you're waiting for the CDC to tell you how to think about masks, here's something to consider: Do you eat more than a teaspoon of salt a day? The CDC says you should not.
Experts are enormously valuable, but we can't expect them to tell us how to live.
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Now that the president is again minimizing the seriousness of the virus — and try to wishcast the economy back to normal — he will worsen its spread and ultimately prolong the national shutdown. (4/n)
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The C.D.C. has defended its description of outdoor Covid transmission by citing a single study. It turns out that an author of the very same study depicts it quite differently.
This is another example of extreme C.D.C. caution that is affecting rules on summer camps and more. 🧵
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This is a tragedy, and a preventable tragedy.
A new Harvard study estimates that 135,000 Americans unnecessarily died in the second half of 2021 because of lack of vaccination.
Political polarization has warped people’s thinking, even when their personal safety is at stake.
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The public messaging from many experts – and, yes, from us in the media – often makes the vaccines sound mediocre if not ineffectual.
“Our messaging is bad, really bad,” says epidemiologist
@KateGrabowski
“Our discussion about vaccines has been poor, really poor,”
@mugecevik
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Donald Trump vs. the United States of America.
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Unlike many medical org's, AARP has fought hard against these bills, rather than opposing mostly through press release.
AARP —citing its 38M members and pledging to report every senator's vote— urges GOP to “reject this flawed bill and this cynical approach.”
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Why so much skepticism? Think about all of the negative things you’ve heard about the vaccines:
- They aren’t 100% effective.
- Vaccinated people may be contagious.
- The virus variants may make everything worse.
- Don’t change your behavior even if you get a shot.
(4/x)
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Or maybe Obama pushed against identity politics, but something about him caused identity politics to take center stage anyway.
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For every poor student the Ivy League launches into the middle class and beyond, City U. of New York launches six.
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Dr. Offit told me we should be greeting the Covid vaccines with the same enthusiasm that greeted the polio vaccine: “It should be this rallying cry.”
Here’s my attempt at summarizing what we know – and don’t yet know – about the vaccines. (fin)
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