Jason Shapiro
@Crowded_Mkt_Rpt
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Not investment advice. 30+ yrs of trading, HF MGR, featured in Unknown Market Wizards. Free Newsletter
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Looks like YouTube is having technical issues so we uploaded the daily recap video directly to our SubStack Newsletter site. Please make sure to subscribe so you do not miss a post.
STOCKS UP ON BEARISH NEWS. Is It Time to Cover Yen Shorts?
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if Meta was -76% Aapl -35% Amazon -54% Nvidia -66% Netflix -74% and Goog -41% would that be a big enough crash? Because that was called 2022. It already happened.
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once you get short stock indices, it fuks with your mind. suddenly everything you see around you is bearish. you become a geo political expert. the price of food pisses you off. you spend alot of time studying past bubbles.
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We are going to bomb you. but we are giving you a weeks notice so you can get the most sophisticated air defense weapons ready to ensure minimal damage. Is this really how it works?
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Germany in recession. Japan in recession. US facing coming recession (yield curve?). All stock markets on all time highs. Go macro analysis!
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Cant remember a time when more poeple wanted the stock market to go down. Ever
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My top thought of the day is this: trading the markets is very very very difficult. If you dont take that into serious consideration, your chances of earning positive returns over time approach 0 very quickly. I been doing this over 30 years. It has not gotten any easier.
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Im no economist, but if you think the US consumer is "tapped out" you clearly dont go out much.
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Bear porn sells. Its interesting. Its sexy. But it also costs investors alot of money. I hope people learned this lesson this year.
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If you wait for a "pullback" in something you want to buy, it runs away from you. then once you chase it, thats when it tops. just how it happens.
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Nvidia is not Cisco. And its not Enron. Its Skynet
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this weekend i was sure the market was going down. by yesterday close I was sure it was going up. today I am sure I have no idea what im talking about and the only thing that keeps me in this game is being disciplined to my process
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gold cant go up when stocks go up. cant go up when stocks go down. cant go up when dollar is up. cant go up when dollar is down. when does gold go up?
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Can do all the analysis you want, but really, its just a bull market.
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The saying goes "bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered. What I have found over time is Bulls make Money, Bears lose money. Just about everyone I know who made money shorting stocks in 2008 has lost that all back and more since.
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Please stop being short All Time Highs. I beg of you.
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the classic 60/40 portfolio where a large part of retiremtn money sits in is down about 35% in 2 years. add in inflation and looking at 45-50% loss is purchasing power terms. I havent heard anyone talk about this. Not even sure most realize it.
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Know what this bubble is missing? IPO's shouldnt there be a new AI company going public like every day?
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you gotta make an honest choice....are you trading for excitement or to make money. Making money trading should be very boring.
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This is positioning in 2 yr 5 yr 10 yr and 30 yr combines. This scares the shit outta me tbh
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Received a lot of great feedback on the interview preview with
@AnnieDuke
. We decided to post the full interview as soon as it was ready. This is a must watch for all traders. Hope you enjoy and we greatly appreciate all likes and reposts.
~CMR Team
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raise your hand if you DONT think this market is overbought, overvalued, and a bubble that is going to burst sooner rather than later
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I guess at this point the Bulls gotta hope for an invasion of Taiwan.
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Buying TLT is the new shorting NVDIA. Shorting USD is the new shorting TSLA
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why is it bearish when "only 7 stocks are going up" but then its bearish when those 7 stocks are not going up but the market is? I dont get it.
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I hate being bearish. especially when I know even a single other person that is. But Im bearish.
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If you are short, and the market you are short is on all time highs, posting bearish things on Twitter aint gonna help you. Obeying rules of risk management will.
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market is on new all time highs. all time highs. why are you still short? You have to think risk management, not ego.
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A story of hope on a sad day: A Jewish guy from NJ and an Arab guy from Arizona who have never met got together to create a place where all people could learn how to overcome behavioral biases to make money in markets. Member by member we are succeeding. Make money not war.
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Every market prediction I hear ends with "and then it will crash." market will do this, then crash or market will do that and then it will crash. truth is market drifts higher over time and crashes are rare events. and btw the most bubbly stuff from 2021 already crashed
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It actually pains me when someone is losing money and says "the market doesnt make sense." here is the truth, the market isnt supposed to make sense, by definition. Just make money, dont make sense.
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retail trying to chase NQ just a bit here. Largest net long all year:
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It wont go down till you stop shorting. just my thought
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Im kinda scared. I really never wanted to be wrong more than right now.
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Here is the reality: the market does not give a toss what you think. You here to make money or to prove a point? Your choice.
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almost seems too poetic if stock market tops on a weak CPI next week after bottoming on strong CPI in October
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“the only people who get rich from technical analysis are the ones selling technical analysis courses” and I would say the same thing about “macro fundamentals”.
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Anyone think the market is going to pull back here a bit, and then go to new highs? Cause Ive heard that about 25 times today.
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Sure the Nasdaq is down today....but overall breadth is positive. Its really only 7 megacap tech names holding the indices down......
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the bears are no longer short. The market did its job:
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I do my first bearish stock video in over a year, and it gets the most views ever. Is there a message there?
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If 1 more person says the only way bonds find a bid is when stocks crash, i swear im gonna break something
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To me, this seems more like a bond crash than a stock crash.
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way to many conversations I have I hear ego...as a defense mechanism vs fear. let it go. embrace your fears and failures. this is the only way to truly learn and improve. in all walks of life. be brave and take the road less travelled, it makes all the difference.
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The big news is the best fade I have ever known got out of his long TLT today. On Lows. He been long for months. Granted he did not get short and he is looking to buy again, but this is at least temporary respite for bonds here.
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Im just saying I heard more people talk about cocoa in the past 24 hours then Ive heard in 30 years of trading. total.
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Dan Nathan goes bearish again. very bullish for NQ
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Anyone think today was the high for the bubble? Im still hoping so but doubting it
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Winning traders say: "Im wrong. Ive been wrong before. Ill be wrong again. ill cut my loss and wait for the next opportunity." Losing traders say: "Im not wrong, Im just early. Ive been right before, Ill be right again. I will not relent"
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If you dont watch fade money on cnbc I would recommend watching todays episode. Just the last 5 minutes "Final Trade" Dan Nathan giving a master class on exactly how not to approach trading. He is the Mt Rushmore of fades by himself. This aint personal, I dont know the guy.
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these are not normal times. dont treat them like they are.
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when a market crashes on you it sucks. but when a market slowly deteriorates its much worse because you lose both price and time.
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"Because its gone up so much and I have missed the entire move" is not a good reason to short something. In fact it may be the worst reason.
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If you cant figure out a better trade than trading Nvidia on earnings day, you may want to find a different hobby
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bonds up 3 points in 2 days and dollar cant go down and stocks cant go up. Something a bit fishy here.
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When 3 people on Fast (Fade) Money say sell Aapl on the same day, I can tell you Aapl is going up. And so is the Nasdaq, and so is the stock market. Sometimes its just that easy.
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If you stayed in cash all year, waited until nvidia was up 215% on the year, then bought it, you have done better than putting your money in bonds at start of year.
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I was told "Jason you dont get it. People dont want to join a service to learn how to trade, they want to be spoon fed what to trade"
I said "Im not looking to attract the masses of stupidity, Im looking to attract selective intelligence"
Its working
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the mind has an unlimited ability to justify anything if need be to feel better about yourself. the markets however have an unlimited ability to take your money if you do this. be mindful.
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Absolutely no reason for stocks to be down today. Short dow vs todays highs. to go along with a portfolio of short euro, pound, and gold. My first time shorting stocks in 2023
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Client: Jason you have been short SPX all year and have lost us quite a bit of money
Me: Yeah but its all 7 stocks, the equal weighted SPX is down 1% on the year
Client: (Click)
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Until someone who has been bearish this entire year can answer this one question honestly, I cannot be a stock market bear: What will it take for you to get bullish? Dont get emotional, dont tell me what a moron I am, just an honest answer.
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wouldnt it be weird if all that gold buying by central banks was actually bad for gold price because the central banks are going broke and need to liquidate their gold holdings now?
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serious question: if you short the stock market because breadth is bad, but the market goes up and no improvement in breadth do you short more?
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The more I listen, the more I believe there aint gonna be a year end rally in stocks this year. Cant tell you how many perma bears are now calling for it. And that stupid "seasonality" chart.....
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So hard to reconcile this. Specs most short since August? with market on all time highs?
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To me it doesnt get more 2024 consensus than this.
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kinda feels like the least expected move to year end would be stock market down like 5%
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This weeks COT again makes me think of gold bars, and maybe storing food. I really dont want this to happen. It all scares the shit outta me. I dont think there is a bailout option this time if markets go nuclear again.
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Here is the news...I get the market wrong all the time. But when I do, I take my loss and move on. I do not keep fighting the tape. The first loss is the best loss.
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Ever wondered what it takes to become a full-time trader? Don't miss this interview with
@OliverKell_
where he dives into his journey, lessons learned from failures, successes, and his current trading approach. Really enjoyed this one!
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is three anyone out there not looking at the very least for a pullback in the stock market here?
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the past 3 years have been some of the greatest ever to observe and learn about market participant psychology. The cycle of fear and greed, or more accurately in this case, greed and then fear.
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Well all things considered, gotta call that the worst day for the stock market this year.
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If you were not short any market that closed at a new all time high, your returns would improve immediately. I promise
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hard to explain is a few sentences, but what the total COT picture tells me here is....DCA into gold bars.
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my thought today was market was going to gap through yesterdays highs on open and run away to upside. this gets a gold star in my trading journal...."remember, you got no fukking clue"
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Here is a hint: If you keep shorting things that are making new highs, you are doing it wrong
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We are clearly at the point where bears are getting angry. Ive been there. It doesnt work. The market dont care about your feelings. In fact it usually works against them until you are broken.
#riskmanagement
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This morning: "month end rebalancing." This afternoon: "month end window dressing. " The bullshite never ends.
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If you a day trader and not loving this, you probly doing it wrong
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If you are a trend follower/momentum trader are are not getting rich this year, you are doing it wrong
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this seasonal october rally in stocks better get on its horse cause we running outta time.
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Its ok to not be involved sometimes. 0% return is much better than negative return.
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Risk manager: are you sure you want to be long stocks over this weekend? trader: Its ok, I have long gold as the war hedge.
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This idea that stronger economy=more hawkish fed=higher rates=stock market goes down is going to crush bears. This wont stop until they believe no recession=growth=bullish market. no clue when that will be
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My feeling is from here to year end is gonna fuk some people up. stocks, bonds, metals, whatever
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Markets fluctuate. Every day. Doesnt have to mean something is about to crash. Doesnt have to mean everything about to rip to new highs. 99.9% of the time its just normal fluctuations. Dont believe the hype and stay focused on reality.
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For me this explains where we are right now:
“I just wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up. I do nothing in the meantime.” — Jim Rogers.
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to watch Fade Money on CNBC and then to say sentiment is too bullish and euphoric is to say that you are mistaking price for for sentiment, which is the biggest mistake people do when trying to be contrarian. fade sentiment and participation, not price.
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