Cassian
@ConvexDispatch
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High conviction. Non consensus. Entrepreneur building a convex portfolio in the real world. On bad days, I pair drawdowns with good wine 🍷
Joined October 2021
Thanks @fundstrat for addressing most popular questions regarding $BMNR and $ETH in today’s Macro Update & Top Ideas Webinar! From services I am subscribed too FS Insights has been the most helpful last year! Looking forward to winning this year together 💪💪💪
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While everyone debates $BABA, $KWEB, and HK, look at Shanghai 👀 The $SHE Index is already back at 2021 highs and still pushing. A quiet frenzy is unfolding in mainland A-shares. One insider tip: most mainland investors don’t have easy access to HK-listed stocks like BABA.
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Clearly I’ve been neglecting an important asset class lately: wine🍷 Two beautiful bottles from Domaine Dureuil-Janthial, one of my favorite value Burgundy producers. Rully is often overlooked, but this domaine is a benchmark. Precision, low yields, no makeup. The white Rully
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Honestly, I wish we’d just had the ruling today. Instead, it’s a nothing burger. That actually sets up a constructive backdrop into the next window. Based on the SCOTUS calendar, the next likely date is Feb 20 (non-argument day).
Higher likelihood we get a tariff ruling on one of the blue dates below, a non-argument day, as would be the protocol for SCOTUS. Allowing for five conference days since the Nov 5 oral arguments, Jan 9 looks likely. If true, SCOTUS has already decided ruling as of Dec 12.
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Not many are talking about this, but if $DXY pushes through 100, it can be a real short-term headwind for metals and crypto. The dollar is hated and heavily shorted, yet strong growth and Goldilocks data could keep it bid longer than expected.
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Markets price the shock, not the regime shift A good reminder is 1971. On August 15, 1971, Richard Nixon announced the suspension of the dollar’s convertibility into gold. Abrupt. Unprecedented. Framed as temporary. In reality, it ended Bretton Woods and launched the modern
Non-consensus take ahead of today’s Supreme Court tariff ruling: I don’t think the tariffs will be overruled. Because reversing them now would do more damage to real American businesses than keeping them in place. I’ll start with a disclaimer: predicting legal or political
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With Supreme Court ruling potentially today the only “dump” I follow is the one on the mountain snow ❄️ IMHO trading these kinds of binary events is not my cup of tea 😌
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Non-consensus take ahead of today’s Supreme Court tariff ruling: I don’t think the tariffs will be overruled. Because reversing them now would do more damage to real American businesses than keeping them in place. I’ll start with a disclaimer: predicting legal or political
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The latest announcement around large-scale agency MBS purchases to push mortgage rates lower is interesting. Not for the politics, but for what it implicitly concedes: That Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are the real transmission mechanism for housing affordability. That’s where
BREAKING: President Trump orders the US government to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds to drive mortgage rates down. "We are bringing back the American dream," Trump says.
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Every time markets rally after a “missed” labor print, I come back to this passage by Howard Marks. It’s not the data that matters most. It’s how it’s interpreted. In bullish parts of the cycle, any news is good news. In others, it isn’t. Where do you think we are right now?
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Posts like these are exactly why I’m long Nike. When exceptional product leadership returns, the financials and demand eventually follow. This is why I’m long $NKE and not chasing Lululemon or Under Armour turnarounds. I hear the promises from management at those companies -
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If Supreme Court ruling is indeed tomorrow, then the current admin should know the decision by now. 🤔
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Just sold 5 more $GDX contracts. Now the rest of the trade is risk free. Waiting for miners to bring ATH. In the meantime I keep my end of Feb gold calls in place fully for now!
Just sold 5/20 contracts on $GDX, fixing some profits
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Little update! China deep dive part one will be ready this Sunday! In the meantime it’s nice to see $BABA move finally it’s one of my bigger positions!
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Comparison to Past 24 Months (January 2024 - December 2025) • 2024 Sentiment: More balanced but with stronger bullish undercurrents. Posts celebrated tokenized assets hitting $7B market cap, Bitcoin’s money supply rise, and US demand picking up. Bearish discussions centered
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Current Sentiment (December 2025 - January 2026) As of early January 2026, X posts reflect a predominantly cautious to bearish tone on crypto markets, with fintech discussions often intertwined but less prominent. Many users express frustration over recent price corrections,
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Market tops are rarely made when sentiment is this cautious. I asked Grok to analyze X sentiment on stocks and crypto over the past 24 months. Here’s the interesting part: we’re now sitting near the most defensive stretch of that entire period. Short-term net positioning is
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Small update! The issue with my account is finally resolved! I got a reply from @nikitabier directly. Thanks a ton to him for helping out and giving clarity on this issue! I can’t imagine how many thousands of mentions he gets every day and the fact that he help me, account just
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Ladies and gentlemen, today’s equivalent of the Space race in 60s This was posted by China Embassy in the US . I wish this was fake😂 Quote: “The real China Shock. Can’t stand them rise”
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