Extreme & Convective Events
@ConvectiveUK
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Forecasting Thunderstorms & Convective events within the British Isles. Forecasted by a small group of amateur meteorologists.
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Pinned Tweet
Saturday 18th May 2024:
Widespread thunderstorms expected today which may bring frequent lightning at times particularly in the SLGHT & AOI zones.
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Extremely Close Up Footage Of The Violent Tornado In Iowa Caught By
@VinceWaelti
. This was a very dangerous/risky capture 🌪
#iawx
#tornadoupclose
#tornado
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Wow this I very interesting, with previous winters when a easterly wind has been suggested it stays and doesn't get ruled out by a westerly wind. So we may have a good chance for this to occur 😁
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Absolutely disgusted how people are saying "it's just summer, no need for national emergency". If you think peoples houses burning down widely in London Is normal then something is wrong. This is very serious for the younger generations future & we need to be more prepared!🚨
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GFS 6z Still Agreeing With Potential Prolonged Cold Spell Till 16th December And Possibly Further. This Is Most To Change But Main Models Agreeing With This Now 🥶🌨
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Model output this week has been suggesting we may be going into a cold air mass into the start of December. This type of air mass may bring wintry showers across many parts of the UK but there is still many questions to be answered 🌨
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Hey everyone, sorry I haven't been active much but I'm trying my hardest to start doing daily tweets again. Not to do with convective weather but more cold / snow weather as we are heading into winter 😅
-
Very interesting model output going into eary December 🌨
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Wow, GFS 12z brings a widespread significant snow event for South of England. As I said earlier, slight adjustments could mean such a big difference 🌨
@GavinPartridge
wow wow wowwwww 🤣
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Some very interesting model output for next working week if your a cold fan. If this did come I wouldn't be surprised if we saw widespread heavy wintry showers & possibly a snow event if lowpressure comes up and bumps into the cold air. Eyes on models, very interesting times 🥶❄️
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Models are now agreeing with each other we are in a direct hit for a cold air mass starting Wednesday onwards tracking from the North. This air mass is also an unstable air mass so there will most likely be occluded front which could bring accumulations of snow.
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Snow Watch ⚠️❄️
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We are starting to see model agreement on a channel low developing which is looking likely disruptive and potentially significant snow in the South. An update will follow tomorrow on exact details such as:
- How Much Snow?
- Where Will It Snow?
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Next week ❄️🌨
-
We have seen now continuing support for a possible snow event for the UK. The big questions still need to be answered such as where will the snow be and how much snow will there be. We will know much closer to the event but is definitely looking likely now...
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Summer 2023 Forecast ⚠️
Looking at recent model output/support there is a greater risk of hotter than average conditions. 🔥
Model output has been suggesting higher pressure than normal to dominate Scandinavia/Greenland with lower than normal pressure in Spain/Iberia.
1/2
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Quite a serious cold pool set up in Scandinavia. Signs of SSW impacts & if so where is that cold going? Too early to say where the cold is going but *MY GUT FEELING* we may go into a very cold spell to finish the winter off. 🥶
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This is my prediction, not a forecast! ❗️
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I think it is fair to say & we are confident we are going to see a snow event in the south Wednesday morning. I'll update this afternoon on how much snow is expected and where. ❄️🌨
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Wow, A Tornado Or "Snownado" Was Captured In Shetland Yesterday. Never Really See These Occur 😳🌪️
Captured By Michael Peterson (Facebook)
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Well then, mother nature looked like it has planned this right when their is a crisis. The most significant cold spell in December 11 - 12 years is on its way. The wind direction means it isn't a dry flow which could mean increased chances of snow showers starting next week 🥶
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Cold fans will definitely love the GFS 12z this evening | Cold & Snowy 🌨🥶
-
Update to follow.
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Beautiful sunrise this morning in Bournemouth! Absolutely stunning to capture 😍
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@metoffice
@PhotographyWx
@BBCSouthWeather
@AlexisGreenTV
@ThePhotoHour
@StormHour
#loveukweather
#uksunrise
#sunrise
#sunrisephotography
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Incredible, Stunning, Dusty Sunset in Bournemouth this evening. Was lovely to watch 😍
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@metoffice
@PhotographyWx
@BBCSouthWeather
@AlexisGreenTV
@ThePhotoHour
@StormHour
#loveukweather
#uksunset
#sunsetphotography
#Sunset
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Quite interesting model support for the middle half of February into early spring. Its looks likely we will see a reverse in the zonal winds to E'ly which may mean spring might be delayed. We will have to see how this plays out but definitely interesting for cold fans ❄️
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Convective Outlook *HIGH RISK* ⚡️
Widespread & organised T-storms will break out today across Scotland, England & Wales. These thunderstorms will bring the risks of frequent/intense lightning in MDT/HIGH zones, heavy rainfall totals & possibly large hail.
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The low pressure, which was supposed to push the cold away during monday, has turned into a possible snowfall feature on its northern edge.
Normally, most low pressures will trend further south closer to the time, so we will have to wait and see.
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Well then, UKV & ECMWF produce widespread heavy snowfall across the south. 😳
Other models have different scenarios so now is the waiting game to see if it will verify. 🤷♂️
Nowcasting from 8pm onwards - Regular update on positions & trends! ❄️
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Convective outlook ⚡️
Severe Thunderstorms are expected to develop quite widely across England which will migrate towards N Ireland & W Scotland.
CAPE is forecasted to exceed 1,500J/KG widely allowing storms to become very active at times, even 2,000J/KG is possible.
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Quite interesting model output to look at for now, most models are suggesting a widespread snow event for the south. As we know from previous events, most models trend further south every time so don't get your hopes up yet.
We should know hopefully Monday whether it will verify
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Verification - Monday 12th June Convective Outlook:
As expected Severe storms developed quite widely across England & Scotland with clusters of active storms forming across Wales/Midlands.
HIGH warning didn't go as well we thought it would be however it was very close!
8/10
Convective Outlook *HIGH* ⚡️
Severe thunderstorms are expected to breakout across Scotland, Midlands & Southern England. These storms will bring intense/frequent lightning, gusty winds, large hail especially in the HIGH risk zones.
A SVR has been issued for flooding.
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What We Know About Next Week 🤔
✅️ N / NE Influence
✅️ Cold Air Arriving This Weekend Tracking South
✅️ Heightened Risk Of Snow
❓️ Widespread / Disruptive Snow
❓️ Duration Of Cold
❓️ Intensity & Exact Location Of The Snow Showers / Fronts
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Snow outlook ❄️⚠️
-
A low pressure will track east along the channel bringing a risk to snowfall across the south. This may settle inland and on the coasts throughout early hours of Wednesday. Another heavy system will move into the south on Wednesday afternoon bringing a risk.
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Convective Outlook ⚡️
Heavy rain with embedded t-storms are expected to affect S/SW england heading North. Throughout the day, SB storms may fire across the SE becoming quite severe.
During the night widespread intense t-storms may occur however alot of uncertainty.
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GFS 6Z vs GFS 12Z - Showing significant snowfall for the south on Tuesday and Wednesday. Definitely interesting to see if other models agree with this but currently Is GFS and UKMO so we will have to see future model runs 🌨
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I know this isn't UK based, but there is quite a serious & dangerous situation about to unfold in the US.
Strong & violent tornadoes are expected once again, with some some causing devastating/catastrophe damage.
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A very warm/possibly hot air mass will move into parts of England during Friday, Saturday & Sunday allowing temperatures to reach 26-32c.
Alongside with this air mass comes an low pressure just off the coast of Ireland allowing southerly winds to influence our weather.
(1/
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Based on recent model output, we have came to an conclusion that an outlook will be issued later on tonight for England & Southern Ireland. ⚡️
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GFS & UKMO 12z is showing trough much further east which means snow risk has increased loads. Looks promising for cold fans 😎🌨
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Convective Outlook ⚡️
Pulse-type thunderstorms are expected to develop in response to surface heating quite widely.
A low end MDT was issued for EA up to Lincolnshire due to relatively high amounts of CAPE (+1000J/KG) & couple of convergence zones fuelling lightning activity.
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Convective Outlook⚡️
Surface based storms expected to break out quite widely especially across South/Midlands & East of England. An Area Of Interest(AOI) has been added which highlights where the highest chance of lightning occurring inside our SLGHT risk.
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A very active convective weekend ahead with the strongest storms we've seen possible so far this year. ⚡️
High temperatures with an unstable air mass will cause explosive convection to occur.
Bit of uncertainty where these strong storms will occur. Update will follow tomorrow.
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Something to keep a watch on, some uncertainty on
#Fiona
position but it is looking likely to bring a cold spell into western europe. Question is, how intense will this cold spell be & where the cold is 📉
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Heavy showers are expected to break out from surface heating. Some of these showers may develop into Pulse-type storms, but likelihood remains relatively low.
These may come with the risk of sparodic lightning, small hail (1-2cm's), and heavy rainfall if they can organise.
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An interesting trend that we are most likely going to see snowfall on its back edge. I'll be doing an outlook later this evening as it could be a surprise for some, don't expect much but we never know!
Snow risk increasing southwards through the early hours of Friday ❄️
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A funnel cloud was spotted across North Yorkshire today at 15:30. 🌪
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Possibly more thunderstorms to push up from the south on Thursday. One to keep an eye on 👀
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Updated Convective Outlook ⚡️
Based over recent model output there are a few changes following todays situation. We have upgraded the "low-end MDT" to a "high-end MDT" and adjusted its position more widely. We also changed the SLGHT over Ireland.
Active day ahead! ⚠️
Convective outlook ⚡️
Severe Thunderstorms are expected to develop quite widely across England which will migrate towards N Ireland & W Scotland.
CAPE is forecasted to exceed 1,500J/KG widely allowing storms to become very active at times, even 2,000J/KG is possible.
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Once agin recent model output suggesting we may be in a very cold air mass starting December. This is highly unlikely but chances are increasing as the days go on. 😮🌨
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As we are getting closer to the start of the Convective season, let's see what everyone captured last year!⚡️
• Theme - Storm / Convective
• Tell Us When It Was Captured [What Day, Time & Month]
• 4 Pictures Maximum
Shoutouts will follow for our favourites ❤️
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A-lot of convection around with the strong sunshine caused some Storms to fire. Glad to see the convective season slowly kicking off 😏⚡️
-
We should see these occur much more regularly now. 😎
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Convective Outlook ⚡️
Heavy showers & T-Storms are expected to develop across England, Wales & Ireland.
Organised cluster of thunderstorms are expected to develop along the M4 corridor, London & up to EA where frequent lightning, small hail and torrential rainfall could occur.
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Convective Outlook ⚡️
Strong T-Storms are expected to affect Ireland, England, Wales & Parts Of Scotland.
Several Rounds of Severe Strong Storms are expected within the HIGH Risk area.
Frequent lightning, large hail, intense rainfall rates.
Supercells are possible in HIGH.
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Wow! It's not often you see this amount of energetic Storms break out along southern England ⚡️
-
A whopping 13,500 lightning strikes has been recorded in just 10 hours! 😳
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December Update:
Another unlikely but possible chance from the GFS 12z run today, a very cold easterly which will bring 8 degrees bellow average! I wouldn't be surprised for that day we don't get above 4°c. Yet again this is not a forecast just suggestion.
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Convective Outlook *HIGH* ⚡️
Severe thunderstorms are expected to breakout across Scotland, Midlands & Southern England. These storms will bring intense/frequent lightning, gusty winds, large hail especially in the HIGH risk zones.
A SVR has been issued for flooding.
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Latest ECMWF (12z) & ICON (18z) and other model output has popped up a surprise feature which could give snowfall to parts of Eng during Sat - Sun.
A lot of uncertainty regarding exact position & intensity, however Midlands seems favourable looking at these charts. Update soon
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As we are focused on the heat building in the uk today and Tommorow not much people are talking about the possibility of rounds of Thundery showers Tommorow. I will issue an outlook later on this evening regarding on this. Could be an electric show for some 😳🌩
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Storm
#Agnes
is currently undergoing "explosive Cyclogenesis," allowing for rapid intensification, bringing violent winds to develop within the low pressure.
This will bring disruptive winds to parts of Ireland & UK throughout Wednesday into Thursday. ⚠️
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Footage of the tornado in Little Rock moments ago.
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Convective Outlook ⚡️
#StormCiaran
will head into South UK early hours of Thursday bringing damaging winds to many. Convection will also be associated with this storm bringing the risk of Sporadic lightning & a brief/couple tornadoes. 🌪️
LOW + SVR Risk ⚠️
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A Theta-E plume (<44C+) is expected to advect N from France into S/SE England, increasing the risk of T-storms during Mon PM - Tue AM ⚡️
A lot of uncertainty does follow with this. We are monitoring this.
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ECM 00z
High pressure is expected to track E/NE into Scandinavia, allowing potentially warm/very warm conditions starting from 8th June.
With the 10-15°c isotherm, temperatures of high twenties could be expected widely with pockets of 30°c possible
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Wow, the ECM 12z is most likely a bit extreme for Wednesday scenario but we can't rule it out.
Alot of interest for Tuesday and Wednesday which we will be watching very closely, possible snow event in the south Wednesday 🤷♂️
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Convective Outlook Mon 10 ⚡️
Heavy showers are expected to develop widely, with some turning into thunderstorms, possibly severe, given the strong wind shear. The exact details are very uncertain, especially the amount of lightning and where the storms will develop.
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Convective Outlook ⚡️
Thunderstorms will develop widely across England, Wales, Ireland & S Scotland.
A MDT was issued across Eastern England as convergence zone may allow a couple of active storms to develop.
A SVR has been issued due to the risk of flooding.
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Quite dark clouds around Bournemouth this evening.
This gave me quite a stormy feeling, did you get that feeling? ☁️⛈️
@StormHour
@ThePhotoHour
@metoffice
#loveukweather
@AlexisGreenTV
@BBCSouthWeather
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Arpege 12z (high resolution model) suggesting a possibly 4 - 8 hour snow event to occur over dorset which could give a covering if this Verifies. Still uncertain on exact position but it is definitely likely now 🌨
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Convective Outlook 🌩️
Showers & T-storms are expected to develop across the majority of England, bringing frequent lightning due to the widespread +800J/KG Cape & intense rainfall.
The main interest area is across W Midlands where highest CAPE levels can be expected.
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Storms are firing/developing the English channel and just off the coast of France.
Low risk for storms in the SE ⚡️
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Verification from yesterday's Tornado Outbreak, impressive outlook! There were so many violent and huge tornadoes yesterday. It's definitely a historical day for America🌪
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Quite interesting model output for tomorrow night low pressure. Most models are keeping it off the coasts and near France whilst others are bringing it up and bumping it into the cold air. I will see the models later on but there may be a suprise event in places or nothing 🤷♂️
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Snow Moon 2023 🌙❄️
-
@AlexisGreenTV
@BBCSouthWeather
@metoffice
#loveukweather
@ThePhotoHour
@StormHour
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Cornwall is already seeing Coastal flooding as the storm nears. Take all warnings seriously ⚠️
Wind gusts are going to dramatically increase during the night, bringing the risk of 80mph+ for SW & SE England.
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Convective Outlook ⚡️
During Thursday, we will see pulse-type storms develop especially across N Ireland, SW Scotland and widely across England.
A couple of these storms/shower may become active at times especially in the AOI zone where lightning may organise best.
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Convective Outlook ⚡️
As a low pressure clears, this will bring instability during the afternoon across Wales, W Midlands/E Midlands, Anglia and North of SW/SE of England.
Area of interest has been added due to Hail, Sporadic lightning potentially organising & convergence zones
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GEM is joining the crazy temperature party 😬😮
*MOST LIKELY NOT GOING TO HAPPEN JUST INTERESTING TO POST*
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Tuesday 9th May - Convective Outlook Verification:
Strong & potent storms developed across UK with sporadic lightning detected elsewhere. These storms produced frequent lightning/large hail in places & localised flooding- Accurate with AOI/SLGHT.
7.5/10 - What would you say?🤔
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Quite a concerning run from this evening UKV run regarding Thursday low pressure.
Doubt the wind speeds will exceed 110mph+ however we will monitor this situation.
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Latest UKV (18Z) is bringing a significant and disruptive snow event across the south during Wednesday evening. This may mean there could be 2 attacks of snow events for the south with one being on Tuesday night and 1 on Wednesday evening.
Update tomorrow!
#uksnow
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Convective Outlook ⚡️
Thunderstorms are showers are expected to affect S Ireland, S & E England with the potential for intense thunderstorms across SE Eng up to East Anglia during the evening and overnight.
SVR - Flooding (Both), Frequent Lightning (E SVR), Wind Gusts (W SVR)
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Snow Outlook / Updated ⚠️❄️
-
Based on current radar and models, this has shifted tonight's snow risk further north. Midlands and wales have the highest risk of snow potential whilst area bellow the M4 will see rain.
Widespread snowfall is likely bringing disruption< stay tuned!
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If only I recorded properly, I was setting up my phone 🤣🥺
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Something interesting which has been picked up by some model output, Thursday low will track north stalling then will clear eastwards.
If the cold air is wrapped behind this, it could give a few cm on its back edge. To uncertain yet but is a interest at the moment.
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Um okay, cool to look at I guess 🤣😐
GFS 12z brings a very crazy jet stream into February. I doubt that 915mb will verify but we will have see how it plays out 🤣
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Convective Graphic Examples ⚡️
-
As we are getting closer and closer to the storm/convective season, we need to make sure everyone understand how are warning/outlook works!
The left example is a zoomed out descriptive graphic, the one on the right is a zoomed in example graphic.
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Convective Outlook
During the early hours of Tuesday morning, an area of heavy precipitation with elevated thunderstorms embedded is expected to effect S England.
Surface based storms are expected to develop across Ireland, SW Eng, Midlands, East Anglia & Scotland.
1
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What a beautiful satellite imagery this is!😍⚡️
Can easily spot the severe storms across CS England/Midlands & Northern England. The severe storms across CS England has easily reached 35,000ft possibly higher (-64c Cloud tops)
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Showers/storms are now starting to initiate ⚡️
Strong & severe thunderstorms are expected within the coming hours ⚠️
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Stunning morning after the sunrise aswell 🤩
-
@LesleyAM13
@Official_WXUK
@IceBucketsIBCM
@RobertMyhill1
@TheSnowDreamer
@CraigM350
@Handry_Outlook
@nvangelder03
@ChadWeather
@simon_weather
@Dedicated_Being
@alex_wx_
@SnowbieWx
@DorsetSnow
@4castproject
@GregDewhurst
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Cold weather alert watch had been issued for next week 🥶. Next week is looking very interesting for the cold weather fans, update from me to follow 🌨
#WINTER
#Winteriscoming
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Convective Outlook ⚡️
Heavy showers & thunderstorms will develop during Monday for Ireland tracking into Scotland.
A MDT was issued for Ireland/N Ireland where strong thunderstorms are expected to develop possibly becoming clusters.
A low-end Severe was issued for hail (2cm+)
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Quite serious rainfall in Scotland at the moment especially Inverness 🌧
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Most models are now agreeing we will be in a prolonged cold spell starting Wednesday in the North and Thursday in the south all the way till mid month. GFS 12z also suggesting occluded fronts & systems to develop starting Friday which could bring snowfall in places 🌨🥶
0
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Convective Outlook Wed 12 ⚡️
Thunderstorms/showers expected to develop widely within the SLGHT Risk with some becoming more organised.
A SVR has been issued for the following risks: 50mph+ Wind gusts & Possible Tornado. This risk contains Wales, SW & S England.
1
6
25
Convective Outlook ⚡️
Behind an occluded front, Pulsetype thunderstorms are expected given cold air aloft and in response to surface heating. Uncertainty where exactly these storms will fire although Wales & Midlands has the highest chance.
Low end SLGHT risk For T-Storms + AOI
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