Lots of new friends; here’s what we do and how you can get involved. We invest in small dollar loans (<$250k) and contractual cash flows. Examples: small business, consumer loans, bridge real estate, music royalties advances, litigation finance, etc.

From Goldman Sachs, music superfans are worth 3.1x revenue of a regular listener.

Join millions who have switched to Grok.

Not much happening at the state unemployment level other than California ticking up a bit. Also, new grads are getting replaced by AI.

July personal loans, from @dv01inc :. •30+ Impairments rose just 7 bps MoM, smaller than seasonal trends.•Net charge-offs held at 0.65%, materially outperforming historical seasonal norms.•Divergence by grade: Top Grades show sharpest declines in charge-offs, Middle Grades

Trump figured out that the Fed runs on one big spreadsheet. If you can’t change the model (Fed), change the inputs (BLS). What could go wrong?!.

Ridiculous that PE funds can do this. We buy loan portfolios at discounts all the time. They are marked at the purchase price initially because that’s the most recently traded market price, even with a DCF model.

I believe AI is a tool for those who hustle. It gives people superhuman powers if used effectively. It doesn’t have anything to do with wealth. Or even education. It’s not expensive (yet). And book smarts give you zero edge with it. People think it will make life easier. That’s.

New bill coming through Congress that allows people to take a test to become an accredited investor. I applaud this, but it only solves half the problem. Need to fix 506(b) of Reg D to allow more than 100 investors.

Sometimes we buy charged off (defaulted) commercial debt portfolios at cents on the dollar. We have partner collectors work them for us. The long tail here is crazy. We have one account paying us $65/day, every day, for about 7 years now. We also just got paid $30k on an 8-yr.

To the companies offering a cool bil for AI experts:. For my college senior thesis in ‘02, I wrote a neural network machine learning program to predict the outcome of NBA games vs the Vegas spread. It correctly predicted the winner 48% of the time. My thesis advisor suggested I.

State level unemployment is almost perfectly neutral in June. 25 states with increasing levels of unemployment…the other half are decreasing or flat. Very little movement in the largest states as well.

I used to think banks would only touch the most prime borrowers, and thus couldn’t generate a higher yield. It turns out, they will absolutely take risk. They just don’t know they are…and pay the wrong price, generating a lower yield. I’m generalizing, but I’ve seen it too.

Bid on a small (<$1MM) music publishing catalog recently where we removed almost 50% of the LTM revenue due to it being non-recurring. Then bid at ~4x that revised LTM given the decay we see in the catalog. Seller got two other bids at 12.1x and 17.x of our revised LTM.

Consumer loan pre-payments are on a fairly steady upward trend, both in the past 2.5 yrs and long term over 10 years. Early estimate for June is CPR up 0.6 again to 23.3. Interesting trend, but I don't have any genius thoughts as to why.

Most lenders/loans have interest paid down first, then principal. Why?. Honest question. I have theories and opinions, but curious what everyone thinks.

It blows my mind how many music investors don’t have a rigid quantitative structure for pricing deals. Usually it’s older industry vets…they look at a variety of factors (including how much they like the music), stick their thumb in the air, put a straight line decay curve.

Pick up nickels and dimes. It adds up. Today, we were given a single loan $10k to own, for free. The owner had run off a huge account (1000’s of loans worth tens of millions) and wanted to shut down its account and servicing, but this loan has a year left on it. They gave it.

If you’re creating a lending product, try to build in amortization or cash flow. Two problems without it:. 1. Delayed feedback loop. Performance is unknown until the end of a vintage. 2. You’ll have to be creative to pay warehouse financing interest. PIK is not preferred.

Our team recently coined the acronym MCCR, which stands for Minimum Cumulative Collections Rate. We frequently look at cumulative collections as our primary performance metric. Defaults are tricky to monitor uniformly, because it depends on the definition of a default. That can.

Fernando Tatis (Padres) is suing an advance company who gave him $2MM early in his career in exchange for 10% of his lifetime earnings, calling it predatory and trying to protect future players. I have two big issues with this:. 1. He’s hurting more players than he’s helping.

Taxing lenders on loans made doesn’t make sense to me. Seems like a fast way to slow the economy. Litigation finance is under threat from Trump’s big bill, which plans to tax lenders 41% on loans, with no partnership pass through or other exemptions. Basically, it will double.