Clint Smith
@ClintVSmith
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Director of Victor Consulting. Former Senior Policy & Communications Strategist for @jacindaardern, and Ministerial Advisor. Opinions my own.
Wellington
Joined October 2011
Business confidence is not a forecaster of future growth. It is a reflection of the state of the labour market (high unemployment = easy to get workers and low wage pressure = high business confidence)
Business confidence has hit its highest point in over a decade, a clear sign that the economy is getting on the right track under National. When businesses feel confident, they can invest more, lift wages, and create more jobs for Kiwis.
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I don't know why they're running this 'people are paying $10k less on their mortgages' line it's not true. mortgage interest was up $600m last quarter v 2yrs ago (that's $4k/yr on average) Claiming something so at odds with homeowners' reality just undermines their credibility
Through reducing wasteful government spending, we have been able to help drive down inflation and interest rates, leaving Kiwis with cheaper mortgage repayments. Today, the OCR was cut again to 2.25%, down from 5.5% under Labour. As a result, annual repayments on an average
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every official document is in English or has an English translation- because English is an official language. These guys wanna waste millions of taxpayers $ on a law confirming that fact. What language would that law be in? English. Because English is an official language.
A lot of Kiwis assume English is an official language, but it isn't. Let's give it legal status! Sign the petition: https://t.co/Rb0S3ISAnf
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btw, the average GDP per capita growth over those terms: 3% for National-led Governments 4% for Labour-led Governments
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Today's Reserve Bank forecasts show the country on track for the second worst growth performance in a term of Parliament in the past 40 years. Only a whisker ahead of 1990-93, the term of Ruthanasia.
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if increasing interest rates is a way to cool an overheated economic engine, the rate cuts are like one of those videos of Russians lighting a fire under the car to try to unfreeze their motor. but the damn thing won't start because of the energy crisis & construction cuts
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Will they refund taxpayers the $18m a year that the Regulatory Standards Act (which they voted for but now apparently are considering repealing) is costing us? https://t.co/8sxG77Rsyh
nzherald.co.nz
The National deputy leader said her party may also campaign to get rid of the law.
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you can literally line up each peak in business confidence with a peak in unemployment, and both the Clark and Ardern/Hipkins governments show sliding business confidence in sync with unemployment heading down.
Business confidence doesn't predict growth. It tends to rise when unemployment is high (easier hiring, lower wage pressure) Lower unemployment & Labour Governments (which, statistically, is basically the same thing) correlates with lower business confidence
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Business confidence doesn't predict growth. It tends to rise when unemployment is high (easier hiring, lower wage pressure) Lower unemployment & Labour Governments (which, statistically, is basically the same thing) correlates with lower business confidence
The latest business confidence survey shows businesses are feeling more confident. National’s working to rebuild the economy, and create jobs and opportunities for Kiwis.
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I think MMP is the best electoral system. Certainly best for NZ. But it does have a downside that it's basically impossible to unelect senior MPs in major parties. safe seats + list back up. possibly insulates them from how their more junior caucus colleagues see things.
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2 years 5 projects Fast track? thing is, there was already a Fast Track approving projects when National came to power National wanted less consultation & environmental protections. Boo, but why not just amend the existing process? Why scrap it all & take a year to replace it?
Fast-tracking infrastructure helps build the future, create jobs, and grow the economy.
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Mike's Minute: Britain's COVID enquiry highlights Labour's mistakes https://t.co/nuvFTBZCVb
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I’m delighted to announce I'm standing as the Labour candidate in Wellington Bays/Rongotai in 2026. I'm thrilled to fight for better jobs, housing, and health services in our community. Look in the bio to donate, volunteer, and help us deliver a better government next year.
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the government contributions in the original scheme were designed to partially alleviate this inequity, but National's stripped them away we need to fix the inequity. I'd suggest solution is a higher employer contribution rate for low income workers that abates as income rises.
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more savings is good but, National's KiwiSaver plan increases inequality Firms basically pay a 6% payroll tax ('jobs tax'?). the money goes mostly to high income earners. on 50k, you get 3k/yr. on 200k, 12k/yr +poor people are already dropping out of Kiwisaver at a record rate
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another huge get for Labour. this'll be an electorate to watch - JAG v Renney, battle of the brains
Labour confirms Craig Renney will be their candidate for what used to be a very safe Labour seat
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coulda sworn we were getting $250 a fortnight
National’s tax relief is giving the average family an extra $60 every fortnight, putting more money back into Kiwi pockets.
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in total, families are actually spending more on mortgages interest now than they were when National came to office. National's 10k example assumes a 550k mortgage thats all floating. In reality, most mortgages are fixed, buffering the impacts of rate raises and cuts.
the family who is saving $10k a year in interest on an average sized mortgage compared to 2 years ago is like the family getting $250 a fortnight from National's tax cuts. It's mathematically possible in exactly the right circumstances, but no-one's ever been seen in real life
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the family who is saving $10k a year in interest on an average sized mortgage compared to 2 years ago is like the family getting $250 a fortnight from National's tax cuts. It's mathematically possible in exactly the right circumstances, but no-one's ever been seen in real life
Kiwis are better off with National. Because we stopped wasteful spending, inflation and interest rates are falling, making mortgages cheaper - saving around $10,000 a year on the average mortgage.
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