Chris Raybon
@ChrisRaybon
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@ActionNetworkHQ & @FantasyLabs * NFL/NBA * Top 5 in #FantasyFootball rankings accuracy in 2019, 11th in '20 , 2nd in '22 * Follow my bets on the @ActionApp
Los Angeles, CA
Joined September 2013
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Pinned Tweet
Kicking off the NBA Playoffs with anything other than a disgusting first-half under ✅ just wouldn't be right.
#LetsGetThisShmoney
(Follow my bets and track your own with
@ActionApp
: )
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Troy Aikman said fuck the 2022 social climate and told competition committee to "take off the dresses" live on air, re: roughing the passer calls.
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Took the entire Giants WR corps 38 minutes of game time to surpass Kadarius Toney's 1 yard.
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LeBron scores 15 vs. Celtics in Game 1, Cavs lose by 25.
LeBron scores 42 in Game 2, Cavs lose by 13.
So if LeBron could just muster 74 in Game 3, Cleveland can win by 1.
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Dez Bryant getting cut from the
#Cowboys
is the first time in a while he's gotten separation after a release.
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Top-scoring NFL teams of Week 1 so far:
#Buccanneers
48
#Jets
48
#Ravens
47
Just like we all predicted.
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Hackett had 2 options:
1. Ask a guy who had already thrown for 340 yards to throw for 5 more.
2. Ask a guy whose career-long FG was 61 to make from 64.
He chose Option No. 2.
This will be hard to live down.
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Gronk needed an uncharacteristic 3 TDs in 13 games in 2018 to end his career on exactly 0.69 per game.
And we all wondered why his usage was down.
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Officially on tilt that Jon Gruden did in fact fuck up my Urban Meyer first coach fired +5000 ticket
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Hackett going for a 64-yard FG instead of putting the ball in Russell Wilson's hands is looking better every day. 😂
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Glad the NFL decided to give COVID a bye throughout the postseason.
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Derek Carr since entering the NFL:
-6.54 yards/attempt (33rd of 36, min. 800 att.)
-Avg. Total QBR rank: 25.3
Raiders have a great backup QB on the roster...His name's Derek Carr.
Jon Gruden on if Raiders have backup QB on roster: "I don't know"
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Now we have to watch an extra week of Ben Roethlisberger instead of Justin Herbert 🤮🤮🤮
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5 years ago, I was an accountant. I hated it.
Today, I’m a Sr. Editor at
@ActionNetworkHQ
& a co-host of
@ESPN
+'s “I’ll Take That Bet.”
Here's my story & what I learned along the way:
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Russell Wilson played QB like a dude who took an edible but didn't feel anything and then made the rookie mistake of taking a second edible
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It’s almost like both teams won the Amari Cooper trade and both teams lost the Golden Tate trade.
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This "ask for a refund" epidemic that's hit sports betting is disgusting.
You shouldn't be betting over on a prop if you haven't baked in the risk of injury.
You shouldn't be betting a side if you haven't baked in the risk of them getting screwed by refs.
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#Chiefs
RB Depth Chart
RB1: Never topped 73 touches in 5 seasons, already missed part of camp with an injury
RB2: Catch-averse grinder entering age-29 season on 4th team in 3 years
RB3: Darwin Thompson
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Favorite stat of Week 1:
Kelvin Benjamin 195 air yards
...
10 receiving yards.
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#Bengals
guards PFF grades, 2021 vs. 2022:
2021
Quintin Spain 66.4 (43rd of 82)
Jackson Carman 54.2 (67th)
Hakeem Adeniji 43.0 (81st)
2022
LG Ted Karras 72.9 (15th)
RG Alex Cappa 71.9 (18th)
Interior pass protection and run game trending ⬆️⬆️⬆️
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Cris Collinsworth: "Can't take a sack here."
Russell Wilson: *Takes sack*
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AB in 2018:
TDs: 15 (led NFL)
Missed tackles forced: 14 (T-5th among WRs)
Drop rate: 1-of-105 catchable = 1.0% (T-4th among WRs)
Uncatchable passes: 59 (most in NFL )
Men lie. ✅
Women lie. ✅
But the analytics don't. ✅
Shirts coming soon.
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I'll never get why so many people hate betting unders...you're literally winning your bet from the moment the game starts.
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Brett Maher's extra point percentage coming into this game was 94.3%.
The odds of him missing four in a row are 0.0011%.
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The past 2 Sundays confirmed he is not
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Kelvin Benjamin: "If you would've put me with any other quarterback, let's be real, you know what I'm saying? Any other accurate quarterback..."
#Bills
: Too late! You said "any other quarterback" first. Now meet Josh Allen.
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You've all been asking about it for a while now, so here it is...
-10k words
-96 blurbs
-The single most important type of research I do to prepare for the
#FantasyFootball
season.
NEW: 3 Key Playcalling Tendencies for All 32 NFL Teams
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If you weren’t aware, some tweets I made about Alshon Jeffery drew the ire of
#Eagles
nation, and Mr. Frank responded with this article. He didn’t @ me, but he did embed all 3 of the tweets in question, so idk if he truly wants a response or just needed content, but here goes...
You're going to criticize Alshon Jeffery? Really? Here's my response:
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My analytics say Tomlin is now 30-8-1 (79%) ATS in his career as a dog vs. opponents with equal or better records.
Mike Tomlin on the Ravens using analytics:
“they aggressively play analytics, so from that standpoint, they’re predictable”
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Co-sign. Breida fucks
Matt Breida is like American Express.
You don’t leave your draft without him.
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Excited to announce I’m joining
@ActionNetworkHQ
to cover DFS and sports betting full-time starting today!
Going forward, all my work can be found at . (Use code RAYBON for a 20% discount on a one-year sub.)
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"Geno Smith is better than Russell Wilson" is really a thing that is true in 2022.
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jordan reed, greg olsen, jimmy graham, delanie walker, and tyler eifert all going outside te12
gonna piss ppl off when that guy who's hardly watched football since 2015 waits on te and wins their fantasy league
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I get tired of people calling KD soft for leaving OKC for the Warriors.
Soft would be giving into the fear of backlash and staying put instead of doing what the fuck you wanna do.
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#49ers
defense over the past 6 days
vs. Baker Mayfield
8/22, 100 yd (4.5)
0 TD, 2 INT
4 sacks, 1 fum L
vs. Jared Goff
13/24, 78 yd (3.3)
0 TD, 0 INT
4 sacks, 1 fum L
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In the last 8 months, the
#Raiders
have voluntarily employed both Christian Hackenberg and Nathan Peterman.
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Arbitrage examples:
Matt Breida vs. Tevin Coleman
Speedy RB2s with similar touch projections (both carry- & target-wise) in offenses with above-average QBs, one molded by Kyle Shanahan and one currently coordinated by Shanahan
Coleman ADP ~RB30, Breida ~RB50
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Deshaun Watson in 5 starts w/ Will Fuller:
296.2 yards
3.6 TDs
9.52 YPA
Watson in 3 starts w/o Fuller:
200.7 yards
1.0 TDs
6.62 YPA
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#NFLRigged
trending means it's one of those days when people who don't normally watch football, watch football.
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#Falcons
WR Julio Jones has put up 1,400+ receiving yards for 4 years in a row and counting.
Only one player in NFL history has more 1,400+ yard seasons in their *entire career* (Jerry Rice, 6).
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Picks I hated:
CAR CB Jaycee Horn 1.08 - Sam Darnold doesn't warrant passing on QB.
DEN CB Patrick Surtain II 1.09 - Defense already elite. Lock + Bridgewater don't warrant passing on QB.
JAX RB Travis Etienne 1.25 - 1-15 team w/J-Rob & Hyde could do better than RB in Round 1
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ICYMI,
@ActionNetworkHQ
is producing a show with
@ESPN
called "I'll Take That Bet" that airs on ESPN+. Rotating group of hosts will include
@chadmillman
,
@geoffschwartz
,
@paulloduca16
,
@HPbasketball
,
@BlackjackFletch
and yours truly.
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If all the sports data we take for granted now was available when I was a kid, I might have lost my virginity at 24 instead of 14.
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Don’t sleep on Jacoby Brissett under Reich...different coaching staff than in ‘17
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Released
#Bills
WRs Kelvin Benjamin and Andre Holmes were essentially the difference between "disaster" and "normal rookie" for Josh Allen passing:
To KB & Holmes:
18-of-43 (41.8%)
239 yds (5.56 YPA)
1 TD (2.3%)
To all others:
83-of-140 (59.2%)
954 yds (6.81 YPA)
4 TD (2.9%)
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That moment in the 3rd round of a 16-team expert league when you have no RBs yet and then it hits you...Kenyan Drake is the next Jamaal Charles.
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People be hating on unders, but you're literally winning your bet from the moment the game starts.
And if you made a good pick, you spend the entire game winning your bet.
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Lamar Miller career high prior to joining
#Texans
:
15.9 touches/game
Miller in Year 1 w/Texans:
21.4 touches/game
Increase: 34%
Duke Johnson career high:
10.9 touches/game
34% increase = 13.9 touches/game
Duke averages 0.79 standard & 1.23 PPR points/touch.
He gon' eat
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Cowboys-Chargers Under 51 ✅
5-1 on the week, 32-13 (71%) on the season 💰
#LetsGetThisShmoney
(Follow my bets and track your own with
@ActionApp
: )
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The reason I brought up what I did was to say: “Hey, this is interesting and surprising and thought provoking. Let’s talk about it.”
Our job isn’t to defend our favorite teams or players. It’s to inform and analyze and arrive at a greater understanding.
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“It’s Kamara’s backfield now. This is his time. Latavius Murray will spell him when needed, but from all accounts, this won’t be a true platoon the way he and Ingram operated.” -
@JeffDuncan_
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You were the preseason odds-on favorite for the Super Bowl at +450...
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Those 3 teams have also combined to win 5 of the last 6 Super Bowls.
Teams are gaming the comp pick system. Letting FA walk & not getting greedy. Picks can be traded.
>PHI has 3 (3rd/4th/4th)
-Combined value=37th pick overall
>NE has 2 (3rd/3rd)
-Combined value=43rd pick
>SEA has 4 (3rd/4th/6th/6th)
-Combined value=54th pick
via
@nickkorte
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Adrian Peterson has played for 3 teams and in 14 games since Jan. 1, 2016:
216 carries, 646 yards
2.99 yards per carry
7-of-14 games under 2.0 YPC
12-of-14 games under 4.0 YPC
13-of-14 games with 0 TD
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One “high-risk” player I want everywhere this year is Will Fuller.
- Median % of routes run per team dropback in a game last season was 95%
-4.5 rec/g over last 2 years even w/ Hopkins there
-0.50 TDs/g since Watson was drafted
Fuller will go bezerk in his 11 healthy games
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Home favorite RBs are one of the closest things to a cheat code you'll ever find in DFS (or redraft start/sits):
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#Texans
can now go 4WR with Hopkins/Fuller/Stills/Coutee and have Duke Johnson motion in & out of backfield as movable chess piece.
Good luck stopping that.
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This tweet wouldn't age well, they said.
Derek Carr since entering the NFL:
-6.54 yards/attempt (33rd of 36, min. 800 att.)
-Avg. Total QBR rank: 25.3
Raiders have a great backup QB on the roster...His name's Derek Carr.
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5-1 on the day.
17-8 (68%) on the season.
#LetsGetThisShmoney
(Follow my bets and track your own with
@ActionApp
: )
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With GB-BUF going under the closing total of 47, the under is now 29-8-1 (78.4%) in games with Ron Torbort as the referee since 2020, including a perfect 7-0 this season.
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Why you shouldn't hesitate to draft Tyreek Hill as a WR1 in
#FantasyFootball
:
Tyreek's speed + Patrick Mahomes' arm = triple teams don't matter.
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Texans ML FTW! 🙌🏽
4-0 early slate ✅✅✅✅
40-21 (66%) on the season. 💰
(Follow my bets and track your own with
@ActionApp
: )
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4-0 early slate sweep! ✅
103-43-2 (71%) on the season. 💰
#LetsGetThisShmoney
(Follow my bets and track your own with
@ActionApp
: )
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Nobody:
Kyle Shanahan: "Let's send our left tackle in motion on the most important play of the season when we need one inch for a first down."
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It is now the fourth quarter in LA.
Jared Goff has 27 passing yards.
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I’m all-in on Austin Ekeler: Round 1 value going in Round 2.
Knocks don’t hold weight:
Worried about role? Still got 233 carries + targets & finished as PPR RB4 last year with Gordon playing 12g.
Is one of few RBs to get promotion w/ LAC not drafting RB til’ Round 4 (cont...)
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I have Christian McCaffrey:
-No. 13 overall (RB10) PPR
-No. 15 overall (RB10) standard
Treating him as legit RB1 in all formats.
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10-1 on the day. ✅
22-4 since the season started. ✅
#LetsGetThisShmoney
Got one more play for the day:
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It could be worse: They could be getting it from cable news networks.
% of US adults who get news on
Facebook 43% (yikes)
YouTube 21%
Twitter 12%
Instagram 8%
LinkedIn 6%
Reddit 5%
Snapchat 5%
WhatsApp 2%
Tumblr 1%
Pew
989
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Perfect 5-0 and a Sunday Six Pack Sweep! ✅✅✅✅✅
22-8 (73%) on the season. 💰💰💰
#LetsGetThisShmoney
(Follow my bets and track your own with
@ActionApp
: )
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Can't wait to see this after every Amari Cooper dropped TD:
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CMC trade makes a lot of sense for the 49ers -- they had a major need at RB with Trey Lance lost for the season.
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So we attempt 58-yard field goals down 28-3, Mike McCarthy?
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All due respect to Joe Judge, but I would take Brian Flores over him 11 times out of 10.
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#Jaguars
rookie WR Laviska Shenault Jr. is multi-positional threat who is also a candidate for carries in JAC backfield.
He’s also reportedly pushing Westbrook/Conley for starting WR spot.
Could have Gibson-like role at some point. Major sleeper.
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Demaryius Thomas: 31 y/o career red-zone struggler who hasn't topped 6 TDs since '14
Emmanuel Sanders: 31 y/o 180-pounder who topped 6 TDs once in career
Courtland Sutton: 6'3", 218-pound 2nd rounder who's been lighting up camp for team w/ not much at TE & opening at No. 3 WR:
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Whatever is going on with Akers does not bode well for James Robinson.
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Why you take stabs at high-upside backup RBs in fantasy even if you’re not using them as a “handcuff”:
-James Conner: Weekly RB1 indefinitely
-Matt Breida: NFL leader in rushing yards/game
-Latavius Murray: Projected RB1 in Week 3
-Corey Clement: Projected RB1/2 in Week 3
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This + calling timeouts on the ensuing kneel-downs should go down as one of the worst coaching sequences in NFL history.
Hackett had 2 options:
1. Ask a guy who had already thrown for 340 yards to throw for 5 more.
2. Ask a guy whose career-long FG was 61 to make from 64.
He chose Option No. 2.
This will be hard to live down.
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4-0 Sunday sweep! ✅✅✅✅
6-1 playoffs, 124-58-2 (68%) on the season. 💰
#LetsGetThisShmoney
(Follow my bets and track your own with
@ActionApp
: )
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Over the past few weeks,
#Texans
have
Acquired one of the NFL's better deep threats (Stills) to pair with one of its best (Fuller)
Upgraded at LT (Tunsil) to give Watson time to let those routes develop
Got one of NFL's top checkdown options (Duke) for when he's under duress
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Al Michaels cannot hide his utter disgust for this game and I'm here for it
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POLL: Who will be the
#Dolphins
top fantasy WR in 2019?
(Like for Preston Williams)
Kenny Stills
639
Devante Parker
400
Albert Wilson
415
Jakeem Grant
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The Oakland
#Raiders
have had more defensive coordinators (2) than interceptions (1) in 2017.
Worst interception-to-coordinator ratio of any defense in the NFL.
#Analytics
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LeSean McCoy:
Indoors 6.05 YPC, 1.2 TDs/game (6 games)
Outdoors 4.56 YPC, 0.6 TD/s game (105 games)
Indoors at Atlanta in Week 4
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5-1 day with the only loss by a yard. 😂
41-22 (65%) on the season. ✅
#LetsGetThisShmoney
💰
(Follow my bets and track your own with
@ActionApp
: )
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