College Football Nerds
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Game 1
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Interesting facts about Danny Kanell's 1993 National Championship ring:
- FSU lost head-to-head to Notre Dame on November 13th but ND, w/same record was excluded
- WVU was undefeated in reg season, but denied a chance to play for the title in favor of FSU who had a loss 🧵
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On the first drive of the game, the UM analyst is speaking to the DC and everyone immediately warns pass. There's no spin here this is BAD. Like, genuine, Astros-level possibly vacate wins bad.
Video from last year's OSU vs Michigan game appears to show Connor Stalions who is at the center of the alleged sign stealing operation standing next to the UM defensive coordinator.
See their pre-snap interaction:
Here is better quality video and story :
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FSU punts up 7 with 2:15 left.
LSU muffs the punt to FSU.
FSU fumbles on the 1 with 1:25 left.
LSU drives 99 yards in 1:24
LSU scores with 1 second left.
FSU blocks the XP to win.
I love college football.
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There's a subtle, but growing problem in college football with how games involving good teams are called by the refs.
Here are some notable teams ranked by OPPONENT penalties:
- Oregon 105
- Michigan 110
- Ohio St 115
- Alabama 120
- Georgia 122
- Texas 131
🧵
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If FSU boycotts the Orange Bowl, I don’t ever want to hear a peep about how you’re a national champion.
2017 UCF, 2008 Utah, and 2004 Auburn went out and won NY6 bowls vs top teams.
You want an argument? Play and beat Georgia.
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This is the first time the BCS formula differed from the CFP final four.
But the silence is because it isn’t what you think. It actually had Bama at *3*.
The BCS would have left out *Texas* for FSU at 4.
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The number of TCU signs on this Michigan sheet is obscene. From this and other shots they had 3+ laminated sheets with at least 50 signs decoded. That’s an entire scheme, which took TCU a month of bowl prep to replace. You can’t ask kids to learn 50 new signs in a week.
Michigan staffer Connor Stalions holding the TCU signals during the Fiesta Bowl while Harbaugh stands in shock at how they’re still not winning
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At 11,000 players, that's roughly $5.5 million in payouts.
NCAA 14 sold 1 million copies, which at $50/each, that's about $50 million.
EA Sports is offering 10% of gross from their last game, despite massive AAA dev costs, team/bowl fees, and it's STILL "too low"!?!
The College Football Players Association is organizing a boycott of the 2024 EA Sports CFB game,
@Pete_Nakos96
reports😳
The payout for athletes is expected to be $500.
"They should not opt into it. It is just a ridiculously low amount of money."
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What Lincoln Riley has done to the employer that not only made him a millionaire but also provided him a platform that cultivated his success is disgraceful.
There's a stark difference between things we can do, and things we should do. And that difference is integrity.
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#4
seed takes
#1
seed to OT and "didn't deserve to be in" is a take.
Michigan earned their win, and was the better team for sure. But to say Alabama didn't deserve to be there is absolutely wild.
Turns out Bama was the team that had looked sketchy all year and didn’t deserve to be in.
As we’ve said all year, Michigan has the dudes up front that people think these SEC teams have. Especially on defense.
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This game is why we have criticized the committee for weeks. Oregon has been credited with an assumed win over Washington since they lost in week 7
Committee has historically ranked teams with potential, yet unrealized wins, remaining much lower than more accomplished teams 🧵
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The committee, AP, and Heisman voters love to talk about SOS.
Oregon, ranked ahead of Bama and Texas, has 0 ranked wins.
Texas has a top 10 win & the same record as Oregon.
Alabama is 3-1 vs ranked teams, winning those games by an avg of 14 points.
Both ranked behind Oregon🧵
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2014 Georgia Bulldogs running back room. (Gurley and Chubb averaged over 7 YPC) 👀
Can you name a better college football RB room?
Rule: Must be at least 3 deep
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You wanna know how bad Alabama's injury luck has been?
Mocks have some combination of Tua, Diggs, Ruggs, Jeudy, Lewis, Smith, Wills, and Moses in the first round.
In 3 years, they never all played in the same game.
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I'm OK with people saying targeting because of how the game is called. But to call this a dirty hit is insane.
- Didn't leave his feet
- Wrapped up
- Didn't lead with the crown, and facemask made first contact
Just because a guy gets hurt doesn't mean it's a dirty hit
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A lot of people calling Justin Fields a bust today.
New rule - if you can't name a single WR a guy is throwing to, he can't be called a bust.
New rule - if a QB is playing behind the worst OL in the league, he can't be called a bust
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ESPN has a pretty dire problem problem.
They're acknowledging the problem, and going about fixing it in a completely wrong way.
Settle in, grab a coffee, and let's discuss the 3 biggest things that led to ESPN's downfall and how they're screwing up again
Super long🧵
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Ohio State is ranked behind Oregon.
OSU has:
- better loss
- 2 ranked wins (both ranked higher than Oregon's 1 ranked win)
This year, more than any I can remember, has told me that voters do not care about strength of schedule. And there is /zero/ upside to scheduling big OOC
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We cheated, but our opponent still scored, so the cheating didn't count...
Is certainly a take.
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Every SEC team should have a pirate sticker on their helmet in honor of Mike Leach through bowl season. Solidarity in support. Retweet if you agree.
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Really frustrating to see Acho, a constant NIL cheerleader, celebrate the idea of a guy taking millions from businesses and not trying to give them value for their money.
Screw those who took care of him amirite?
Also, statistical reasons why Caleb needs to play for Caleb: 🧵
With National Championship hopes gone, Caleb Williams should consider sitting out the rest of the season.
The Heisman is a long shot, CFB Playoffs are even less likely, and he won’t play in the bowl game.
The risk of playing FAR outweighs the reward. Business decision.
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This is why we kept beating the drum against playoff expansion. This idea of March Madness runs in college football is just totally disconnected from this sport. Champions really ARE almost predetermined based on talent. TCU could play Georgia 20 times and never win here.
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In Hugh Freeze's last SEC season (2016), he had a team with Chad Kelly, A.J. Brown, Van Jefferson, Evan Engram, and D.K. Metcalf.
They went 5-7 that year.
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When Lincoln Riley set out to steal everything from Oklahoma on the way out the door, he made sure to take the defense.
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In 2007, Rich Rodriguez passes on Alabama, and they instead hire Nick Saban. Nick Saban loses to ULM in his first season.
In 2020, a day after Saban wins his 6th title at Alabama, ULM hires Rich Rodriguez as their offensive coordinator.
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Note from an actual lawyer: Michigan broke TWO rules by going to games to record:
1) a rule restricting advanced scouting
2) a rule outlawing recording of signals
All the excuses are about the first rule, which they have considered dropping. But the second is worse.
🧵1/10
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Ohio State had a ton of backups in, and you can't ask players to not do what they're coached to do when they're in the game. That punter is coached to run when he sees a high leverage situation like that.
Asking OSU to lay down entirely while Rutgers gets to go all out is unfair
Ohio State ran a fake punt while up 39 points in the 4th quarter 😬
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Realize this "settlement" was Michigan saying "we'll accept the full penalties you levied if you agree to stop the investigation and not force us to testify."
This points to Michigan realizing:
1) They're screwed on the merits
2) They really don't want to testify under oath
I was very much hoping we’d get to see Jim Harbaugh take the stand in his own defense.
So were Big 10 attorneys.
That’s why this happened.
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@dannykanell
Are you saying we get to litigate the validity of this year's selection, and your outrage, based on the results of FSU vs Georgia?
Because it sounds like you're using hindsight for 93 where an undefeated team was denied a chance to play in favor of a 1-loss team...
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With Arizona moving to the Big 12, this means the 6 new B12 teams for 2024 were a combined 7-36 vs Power 5 teams in 2022.
New logo is ready.
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Your friendly reminder that Ross Bjork was the AD at Ole Miss when they were cheating under Hugh Freeze and angrily denying it.
Speaking to
@RossDellenger
, Texas A&M AD Ross Bjork said Nick Saban could be disciplined under SEC bylaws that prohibit coaches from making, "public statements and accusations with regard to infractions.”
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Three of these teams beat Power 5 conference champions last year and didn't win a division in the SEC.
Maybe non-SEC conference champions only think they're good because they don't get humbled in the SEC?
Teams that aren’t that good, but think they are because they play in the SEC
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So basically Ohio State was murdering a really good Indiana team with a healthy Penix. And Indiana, a quality team, put it together and mdee a game of it, as quality teams will do.
That's my thought the more I see Indiana play. OSU isn't getting enough credit for that win
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Not enough people have seen this clip (or the full video). What players and coaches are saying publicly "oh you still have to stop the play" is different from what they're going to say behind closed doors.
Two things on "you still have to stop the play":
1. Brooks has a
Dear, “You still gotta line up and play ball” people on the internet I keep seeing on this Michigan stuff.
Please explain Play Action to me?
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Everyone is having fun at Alabama's expense right now with the drama surrounding possible transfers.
But make no mistake, this worm is going to turn on everyone. If Harbaugh leaves, more dominos may fall and it could get ugly for multiple teams creating chaos.
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I don't know that he would take the job, but DeMeco Ryans (former Bama AA) only makes $4 million/year.
Alabama could readily double or triple that...
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Jayden Daniels vs the field for the Heisman:
- Better passing stats (avg and totals): Daniels
- Tougher schedule: Daniels
- Most top 10 teams faced: Daniels
Daniels rushing yards: 1014
Next closest: 164
He "stat stuffs" with 91 fewer attempts than Penix, 58 fewer than Nix
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I expected FSU vs Georgia to be bad.
I did not expect it to be this bad. FSU looks like an FCS team out there from a size perspective. It’s not competitive.
The FSU team that walked out there today would genuinely struggle to win 4 games in most conferences.
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We're all out here listening to everybody's insiders while a dude named "Senator Giggity" has known for months.
Gonna be wild when they name Kalen DeBoer as Alabama head coach.
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After Auburn punted to UGA before their last TD drive, there was a stretch:
- 12 plays on the field
- 24 commercials
- 13 minutes of commercials
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At what point is it no longer a tinfoil hat theory to suggest he's just dragging this out until it's too late for Michigan transfers to enroll elsewhere for the spring?
NEWS: Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh is set to meet with The Los Angeles Chargers for the second time,
@AdamSchefter
reports👀
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Anyone with angst over Bill O'Brien taking the Boston College head coaching job should step back and realize his son is known to have a rare brain disease, and his doctors are in the Boston area.
Presumably that's a big factor and, if so, kudos to him for putting his son first.
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It's obvious at this point that refs don't understand ball possession when Ohio State plays defense in big games
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@korey_wright18
Yeah this being the first drive in the game is huge. The analyst is very clearly reading signs, which means Michigan went into the game with the signs already stolen.
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Bud knows this is an incredibly lame false equivalency.
Saban didn't buy a million dollar home with his first coaching job. He probably got room/board and a ~$15,000ish stipend. Sound familiar?
Did this conversation take place at Nick Saban’s new $20M house that he got after leaving the Miami Dolphins because Alabama backed up the brinks truck to get him to leave?
Or at one of his Mercedes dealerships?
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Unless Ole Miss can manage it, it's likely Georgia won't play a single team this regular season that finishes ranked.
Sure would have loved to see that Oklahoma-UGA game that got canceled.
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I'm ok with the "take a wait and see approach" folks who are reserving judgment.
I'm not ok with the "it's on you to change your game plan to overcome our cheating" crowd.
"Just change your signs" ain't a valid defense.
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I've had my thoughts about Pat on Gameday but he just gave us the best moment from that show in five years. 😂
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We picked Bama to beat Michigan, but if there's one thing that has me really second guessing that pick it's this Vegas line.
Vegas is tremendously exposed if Bama wins, and they're not hedging it at all.
I feel like Vegas knows something I don't. Which isn't uncommon 🤔
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For years we heard "CFB is a billion dollar sport! We need to give their players their share of the revenue!"
So mass media pushed a system where it's illegal for schools to pay players with TV revenue, but we're asking average fans to fund NIL to buy players' lambos.
A decade from now in CFB's revenue sharing era imagine looking back knowing folks working 9-5 jobs were asked to buy players
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Colleges ranked by NFL snaps (off & def) in 2021 season:
1.Alabama - 35,224
2.LSU - 27,503
3.Ohio State - 26,614
4.Georgia - 18,727
5.Clemson - 18,126
6.Michigan - 17,220
7.Oklahoma - 16,245
8.Notre Dame - 15,666
9.Iowa - 14,873
10.Florida - 14,143
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Which college football head coach, alive or dead, would you most want to have a beer with?
Two rules:
- If it's Lane Kiffin, like the Tweet. If it's someone else, comment.
- Has to be a coach who didn't coach for your favorite team.
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Under the new super conference setup, Michigan and Ohio State would have played each other in back-to-back weeks each of the last 3 years, and 4 out of the last 6.
12 team CFP means the likelihood that they'd play 3 times in one season is quite high.
"The Game" is now "A Game"
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The scary thing about Ohio State's romping of Wisconsin is the fact that they had multiple future 1st round NFL players not available to play and still went ham.
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Jayden Daniels worst game in terms of Yards Per Attempt is 9.1 (Alabama).
He's only had two games below 10 YPA (other is 9.4 vs FSU).
*The average of his two worst games is the same as Bo Nix's season YPA for all games (9.3)*
Daniels is also a 1,000 rusher averaging 8 YPC
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Lots of talk about Jonathan Taylor as a Heisman finalist, very little about J.K. Dobbins. Vs common opponents (Neb, NW, Mich St)
Taylor: 134 yds/game 5.2 YPC
Dobbins: 157 yds/game: 7.1 YPC
In the OSU/Wisconsin game:
Taylor: 20 carries 52 yards 2.6 YPC
Dobbins: 20/163/8.2 YPC
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I don't know why people keep spreading the myth that electronic sign stealing is legal. It isn't. Here is the black-letter rule, per the NCAA Rulebook 4.11.h:
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Jayden Daniels has rushed the ball for a gain of 20+ yards more times than Bo Nix has completed a pass that went 20+ yards.
(But Daniels also has better passing stats too)
Oregon's leading running back has 9 rushes > 20 yards
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"Oregon is going to beat Washington, therefore we should rank them now as if they've beaten Washington even though they lost to Washington earlier this year"
Is wild.
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1/3 of all of Bo Nix completions are from behind the line of scrimmage.
76% of all Bo Nix completions are either behind the LOS or between 0-9 yards downfield.
@CFBNerds
BTW, these bogus data points need to start aligning to create the narrative they want. Another anti-Bo post shows far more pass attempts on deep balls than your little graphic suggests.
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Imagine thinking a championship is gift wrapped for Alabama when they'd have to beat a team Ohio State couldn't.
Alabama is about to win it all again.
This will be 3 Nattys for Nick Saban that were gift wrapped for him.
2012 when OSU was undefeated but NCAA said our players couldn’t get tattoos
2013 when they were given a rematch vs LSU
2023 when they were picked over an undefeated
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Miami with one of the worst choke jobs in the entire history of college football.
- Ran the ball up 20-17 when a knee would have ended the game (under 40 seconds, Georgia Tech had no TOs)
- Fumbled it away on the run, and
- Gave up a 50 yard TD with 10 seconds left.
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Auburn doing the only thing they can to weaken Alabama's resume for playoff consideration. True hatred. 🧐
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This is why I called the coverage sensationalism.
Lawyer-to-lawyer, Clay, you know good and well that an individual A who legally brings individual B a gun belonging to individual B, does not "aid and abet" a murder committed by individual C who got the gun from B.
Brandon Miller should never play another minute for Alabama basketball. And Nate Oats’s job should be in jeopardy for this cover up. Bama’s star player aided and abetted a mom’s murder. This is insane:
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I've seen some recent debate on RBU. Alabama is RBU by quite a margin.
In the 2022 NFL season, former Alabama running backs had 1443 carries.
#2
, Penn State, had 554.
We scored 7 statistical categories for our conclusion, let's take a look. (Totals at the end)
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"Without the pick 6s, TCU loses that game"
Pick 6s are a legitimate way to score, y'all. Stop with this.
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A few years ago, Alabama played an entire season without a single opponent getting flagged for holding.
But to hear the broader CFB fandom tell it, they get all the calls along with Georgia because the SEC is "protecting" their brand.
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"You can get all that from TV"
Then why is Michigan sending an analyst to future opponents?
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Minimizing a 54-10 win over Iowa because a lot of points came off turnovers is silly.
That's literally double their highest allowed total this year. If forcing 6 turnovers and beating them by 44 is no big deal, why did nobody else do it?
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Can't lose those games if you never make it there.
No team has lost more BCS/NY6 Bowls than Oklahoma.
Even if you broke it out by most BCS Bowl losses and most NY6 Bowl losses, no team has lost more of either than the Sooners.
#OUvsTEX
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Not counting 2007, 25% of Alabama's games played under Nick Saban decided by one score have come in the last two seasons.
If you felt Bama hasn't been Bama, in spite of racking up wins, but couldn't put your finger on it, this is the number that confirms your eye test
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If we're going to pick on Daniels for playing in the 4th quarter vs Ga State then we also must remember:
- Penix Jr playing until 6:51 in the 4th vs Tulsa (38 pass attempts)
- Bo Nix throwing it almost 30 times vs Portland State including while up 50-7 in the 3rd
And combined,
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Not a single voter would take JMU +10 vs Notre Dame in a game with stakes.
But we have to pretend a G5 who beat UVA by 1 point and has 3 one-score G5 wins is better than Notre Dame because we like feeling good about ourselves as we celebrate naked emperors.
Not gonna like: This made me gasp. James Madison is ranked ahead of Notre Dame. In football.
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A key point with Harbaugh is that if the Michigan case went forward, he would likely be forced to answer under oath for everything or risk contempt of court. You legally cannot plead the 5th absent a real threat of criminal prosecution (and NCAA rules are not criminal laws).
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So, this is really, genuinely very suspicious.
- DC Clayton White was Harbaugh's DB Coach at Stanford
- South Carolina played shockingly above their heads
- SC had wristbands to change calls pre-snap for the first time vs Tennessee
- Beamer used stolen plans at VT in Wakeyleaks
Surprised Vol Twitter isn’t running with this more. The week following this alleged scouting, the South Carolina defense wore wristbands for the first time all year.
Would not be the first time that Shane Beamer has gotten into trouble for accepting and using stolen information.
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This completely refutes the long-standing notion that "Alabama/Ohio State/Georgia" gets all the calls
What this means is, a number of the best teams are rarely seeing opponents penalized.
This is either subconscious or intentional, but either way, it's unfair.
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So...
About those 2024 college football playoff "Power 5" automatic bids...
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I don’t know what David Pollack’s compensation was at ESPN. But I sure would have loved for Pat McAfee’s deal to have been fractionally less to save him.
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Will Levis as
#1
overall odds are moving rapidly right now (moving from 50/1 to 5/1).
Tennessee had the 127th best pass defense last year.
Levis vs UT:
- 98 yards on 27 attempts
- 3 INTs
- Negative 22 rushing yards.
Two weeks later, Levis managed 109 yards vs Vandy.
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RE: Heisman season for a WR
Marvin Harrison Jr.'s current numbers (10 games):
- 1,063 yards
- 12 TDs
Devonta Smith's Heisman season in 2020 (13 games):
- 1,856 yards
- 23 TDs
And Devonta won largely because the top 3 QBs were Dillon Gabriel, Kyle Trask, and Mac Jones
Marv
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Michigan, Alabama, Georgia, Oregon, Texas, Ohio State - all far more talented than 90% of the teams they play are somehow going up against bottom-half teams who miraculously play mistake-free football.
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Pretty shocked at the CBS broadcast during the Iron Bowl yesterday going to their rules expert and getting mostly silence on a really interesting penalty scenario🧵
On 4th and 2, Auburn had three players in motion at the snap which is against the rules.
But the only penalty called was offsides on Alabama. Auburn was able to get a field goal out of it to extend its lead to 4 👀
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No, because it was the correct call.
Worst call in the history of college football?
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I feel like it has to say something that Oregon’s impact CB K. Jackson left Alabama because Terrion Arnold passed him on the depth chart last year as a freshman.
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Thanksgiving Day parade TV coverage is:
- 9% parade
- 21% commercials
- 70% boring interviews with supporting cast of the network's b-rate shows
It's unbelievably boring. We don't have to pretend anymore. Admitting the truth is the first step towards healing.
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Alabama's play calling vs Texas was odd.
One would assume you'd design a game plan that capitalizes on Milroe's biggest advantage over Buchner or Simpson: ability to stress a defense with his legs.
There were few designed runs, almost no zone read, and little use of his legs.
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Question.
If Michigan beat Ohio State twice with CJ Stroud at the helm, including at OSU last year, why is almost everyone assuming OSU will beat Michigan this year with a new QB?
Make your case either way.
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The shame of Heisman (individual award) voting hyper-focused on wins (which is a team thing), is that CJ Stroud absolutely out played Bryce Young today, but he'll get penalized for losing to a good team while Young barely beat a bad team.
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I'm not sure why you double-down on this take given details just released (link in reply):
- Miles had left gun in car w/out BM seeing it
- BM was returning from eating to pick up Miles before text was sent
- BM was unaware of the altercation
- BM parked before the victim arrived
Alabama fans demanded Cam Newton be banned from colleges football for allegedly taking money, but are fine with Brandon Miller providing a murder weapon used to kill a mom. Sports fans aren’t sane or rational when their favorite teams are involved:
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I get Stroud. But some of these analysts can't get over their dark horse pick in the off-season being wrong and are still trying to will it into existence.
Levis had 98 yards on 3.6 YPA with 3 ints Saturday vs Tennessee.
Will Levis, C.J. Stroud battling for No. 1 in latest 2023 NFL Mock Draft from
@CBSSports
:
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Don't tell me that NIL "brought things above board" when Texas A&M refuses to disclose their NIL deals and Jimbo Fisher is at the podium telling us it never happened.
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The upshot of why Alabama football is doomed in the new NIL model - number of billionaires living in each state:
Alabama - 0
Ohio - 7
Georgia - 18
Texas - 73
Florida - 78
California - 186
And this won't increase parity. It just means a handful of schools will dominate even more.
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People need to stop talking about "Texas nearly beat Alabama" and "Missouri nearly beat Georgia" in the same breath.
- Texas is 6th in FEI, 10th in FPI. They are a legit talented team just with a bad L vs TTU.
- Missouri is 57th in FEI and FPI. You shouldn't struggle with Mizzou.
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I'm 99% sure the referees just made Alabama kick on 3rd down. HUGE error if true.
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I've never seen a fanbase so insecure over any criticism as we're seeing right now from Michigan fans.
Our comments are littered with replies like this, in a game they were down 7 with 4 minutes left, and won in OT.
OSU, who had the ball down 6 late, wasn't "close" either. 🧵
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