Chris Colose
@CColose
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Climate scientist at NASA GISS. Climate change, theory of how atmospheres work, exoplanets. I play & study poker too.
New York, NY
Joined April 2013
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都知事選
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Celtics
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#Number_i_BON
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#WWERaw
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Pacers
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JO1 HITCHHIKER
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Tatum
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#IRIAMメンテ中のフォロー祭り
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Tapera
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Jaylen Brown
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Nurse
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TIME TO WORK
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Angel Hernandez
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#LOV4beckysangels
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Respect Motherhood
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土砂降り
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वीर सावरकर
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大雨の中
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#BON_10Mviews
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Rhea
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Rayadas
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विनायक दामोदर सावरकर
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ゼンゼロ
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@jordanbpeterson
You're an academic fraud intentionally misleading the public about climate science. No one should take you serious on any topic.
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Everything
@jordanbpeterson
says about climate is totally off base, but he never actually engages with anyone who knows anything.
@TheOmniLiberal
isn’t an expert but at least has the rare personality to detect and challenge bullshit, which is Peterson’s entire brand (based on
Remember when people used to argue that Jordan Peterson wasn’t a climate change denialist?
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This convo with
@TheOmniLiberal
is the most unhinged I’be seen Jordan Peterson, not just on climate (where he asks “why not?” if there’s a difference between Hitler and people who are worried about climate change).
His entire worldview is paranoia around tyranny, corruption,
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@Metamagician
@UnaMcIlvenna
@ashcroftethics
It seems trendy now to use the therapeutic language (“my boundaries”) to justify just being a bad person.
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Whenever people frame climate science as a debate between mainstream science (who agree on everything) and "skeptics" (who are challenging things), a gentle reminder that it is mainstream science that is skeptical in a way that iterates on understanding and advances knowledge
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@RamotControl
@pallbro
@gretchemaben
It's extremely controlling and possessive behavior to tell people who they can be friends with or close to. That's an instant red flag.
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@DineshDSouza
Hi Dinesh, I am a climate scientist. If you would like an explanation for how seasons work, I am happy to offer free guidance.
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@jordanbpeterson
@YouTube
@BjornLomborg
I'm unimpressed by your inability to talk about climate change with anyone who doesn't take a fringe position on almost everything related to the topic, but we can't all get what we want.
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These kind of statements are ridiculous and problematic for many reasons. Here are 3 reasons:
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@Historian_Steve
This is not at all the consensus in the climate community. It’s winter, cold happens.
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Since I’m meant to be a member of the cult shushing everyone about Tonga, I’d like to talk about it. There was a time in ancient history (Before Covid) when I PhD'd on volcanic stuff, then I wanted to blow up GCMs even more with exoplanet modeling. So we're wiping the dust off.🧵
The Hunga-Tonga eruption is rapidly becoming the lab leak of climate science
Almost all the research that will be done on its effects on climate hasn’t been done yet
But already some climate scientists are warning that to ask about its climate effects is disinformation
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Some time ago I ran a simulation of a CO2-free atmosphere for a magazine, but the article never developed.
You would be able to tell by the fact that Earth would be lifeless and Venus would be habitable:
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Climate scientists flying would be hypocritical if they advocated for no flying. It is not hypocritical if they advocate for large structural change in political & energy infrastructures. You don't need to be guilted by poor philosophy and small impact arguments. Go to AGU.
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Corona-rhetoric is like watching a history of climate denial at 1000x pacing.
-It’s not us/just one person from China
-Just weather/in Summer it goes away
-Very low risk
-More people die from flu (cold, etc)
-It’s happening
-The doctors want power
-Too expensive
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@jordanbpeterson
Last week, “science isn’t about consensus”
This week, “look, a collection of 1200 non-experts from Mom & Pops bakery, Tims oil rig, Sues fried fish, and a couple dead people mixed in…they have done better (unpublished) radiative transfer calculations. So there!”
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There's rarely such a clean example of Dunning–Kruger in action, but this is a good opportunity to remind people how the greenhouse effect works. What Don has shown (not with a climate model, but a basic radiative transfer program) is in fact consistent with everything we know.
I’ve done some climate modelling, using Chicago University’s MODTRAN program.
Looks like CO2 has no effect on ground temperature.
Go figure.
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@JasonHise64
Funny, I was just thinking that the temperature of space (2 degrees) is suspiciously close to the freezing point of water (0 degrees).
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Area fraction of the planet that has warmed by at least 0.5, 1, 1.5, or 2 degrees since mid-century.
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We do understand it. It’s a rather exceptional El Niño following multiple La Niña years, superimposed on a trend that will continue. There is no evidence of “surprises,” which actually is worrying enough.
We do understand the
#globalwarming
caused by fossil fuels - for four decades it’s been going as predicted.
But we don’t understand the surprise upward leap that is happening now.
And that worries me.
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Imagine if humanity dropped 6 Empire State Buildings into the world's ocean every minute...well, we are in the mass equivalent of land and sea ice melt.
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@JohnCornyn
I'm a climate scientist-- happy to chat about how "modeling" is fundamental to all science, how encapsulating aspects of the world into mathematical language is central to any claim at understanding, and how pop-philosophical understandings of the "scientific method" don't go far
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A quick thread on the seminal contributions of Syukuro Manabe to climate science (whom I’ve had the privilege of meeting and had a memorable one-on-one long discussion about GCMs and climate on a boat ride in Europe) given the news of his
@NobelPrize
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@VivekGRamaswamy
You’re not pro environment, you’re a politician misusing esoteric data points and creating meaningless phrases like “climate agenda” to avoid engaging with actual scientists, or the broader reality that Earths climate will be markedly different than in many millions of years. But
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3) It doesn't work, and probably leads to a certain nihilistic complacency if there is indeed an irreversible threshold. I mean, why have kids? Why do anything? And what if this 6-8 years passes, do we just sing Kumbaya by a fire and keep emitting carbon?
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UPDATED Fractional Contribution to Sea Level Rise, for AR6
#climate
Thermal Expansion & Ice: 0%
White cliffs of Dover: 32%
Kids throwing rocks in water: 17%
Silt from Rivers: 3%
Boats: 20%
Increased # of fish: 18%
Smith & Dana R peeing in ocean: 10%
CO2 (yum, plant food): -100%
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I have just completed my PhD in climate science working routinely with models; they are of very good utility, and are credible tools.
Climate Science Challenge. Find a scientist -- just one -- who says the climate prediction models are credible:
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@EricRWeinstein
Eric-
You should speak to those of us in the climate dynamics community who routinely work with models and are aware of their strengths, pitfalls, evolution, evidence of skill, etc., rather than the loudest voices of environmental advocacy. I'm happy to talk to you.
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I think an actual unpopular opinion- I really like the direction IPCC wants to go in with visual elegance in its presentation, but will all due respect to the authors who put in a lot of time and effort, the SYR summary graphs are trying way too hard. There's too much text, too
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@KonstantinKisin
@brad_polumbo
@TheOmniLiberal
You had an entire talk go viral on woke culture, which was actually a confused climate change rant. Whatever your actual beliefs are, it’s not the type of skepticism toward modern progressivism that he’s talking about.
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@rezaaslan
You could just apologize instead of misinterpreting responses to you advocating for/poking fun at violence against teens.
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We've warmed 15-20% of an ice age unit in two orders of magnitude less time than it takes nature to deglaciate out of one. And we're headed for ~half an ice age unit this century.
"Globally resolved surface temperatures since the Last Glacial Maximum"
By Osman et al.,
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@MihaiSecula
@jordanbpeterson
Generally if someone is intentionally leading a serial disinformation narrative against a field they know nothing about, I'm happy to call them out even if they found success in other fields. It's blatantly unethical.
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@JunkScience
@elonmusk
For people sucked into Steve’s disinformation, what he didn’t want to show you is that a warming system with variability will periodically exhibit short term trends with pauses or accelerations in warming, but the long term trends is up.
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1) It's inaccurate. There are no global-scale geophysical thresholds of this sort. While it may be true for very specific subsystems (e.g., an individual glacier, a particular species, a rainforest), those thresholds vary considerably and their impact on climate varies.
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Since some people are talking about climate change and moisture, thought I’d do a small little tweetstorm. Feel free to share: 1/N
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2) it damages the credibility of a community (that is, *us*) who aren't making these predictions. I don't know how many "so why won't you refine the models because of this failed 12 year prediction I heard from someone" I've received. No. Stop speaking for us.
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Here is a review of what is actually happening, which is that fire prone conditions are increasing almost everywhere, as are actual fire in many regions (especially with forests) but decreasing trends globally due to land management, splitting up land patches for agriculture,
Do we live in a world on fire?
For more than two decades, satellites have recorded fires across the planet’s surface. The data are unequivocal: Since the early 2000s, when 3% of the world’s land caught fire, the area burned annually has trended downward.
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I bet it won’t. You heard it here first. “Climate change” was used at least since the 1970s, it and “global warming” are both correct descriptions of what is happening. “Climate variability” is not.
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1) Thou shall not invoke the Sun in any climate change problem*. It's not the Sun.
2) Thou shall respect internal variability. Especially in the winter mid-latitudes. You shall not highlight climate change for cold air outbreaks. Or for every year-to-year fluctuation.
3) Thou
What would a climate science Ten Commandments look like?
Here’s a pertinent one:
“Thou shalt not assume that internal variability represents a forced trend.”
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There's a recent paper literally called "Increasing forest fire emissions despite the decline in global burned area" that shows this isn't true, since as I tweeted before, the decrease in burn area is showing up mostly in grassy areas.
Globally, wildfire emits ever less CO₂ — last year was the lowest level yet!
Unfortunately, you'll struggle to see this reported anywhere
Climate alarmists highlight all the places that burn and ignore the ever more places that don't
My new WSJ oped
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Since it's in the news, how does ENSO affect global temperature? Take a global-scale temperature product like GISTEMP, remove the trend, and sort by El Nino, La Nina, or “neutral” periods, accounting for different lag times at each point. You get something like this.
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Thread on the link between climate change and extreme precipitation. Why does intense rainfall go up more than mean rainfall, but often different from the water vapor amount?🧵
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This explanatory and predictive power is a triumph of climate science going back to the 1960s, and has proven to be successfully applied across a large domain of climate change problems and far superior to any alternative model the skeptic-sphere has generated.
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@jordanbpeterson
While we’re busy repeating things
@jordanbpeterson
You're an academic fraud intentionally misleading the public about climate science. No one should take you serious on any topic.
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This is summer of 2023 minus 1936. The "key issue" might vary depending on who you ask.
@MatthewWielicki
The key issue is not which year had hotter average global temperature (answer is 2023). The issue is which year had more extreme heat events (in US answer in 1936). Continental heat wave frequency/intensity does not scale with global avg temperature
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This
@nytopinion
piece is poorly titled and not a great narrative. The big picture of climate change has been known for decades now and there is scarce evidence the impacts have been systematically over or understated.
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Even though the Earth reaches its furthest point (aphelion) in July, the global mean temperature is hottest around now, due to asymmetry in land distribution (heat capacity) between the hemispheres and the obliquity-driven seasonal cycle that prevails on Earth.
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If you think climate scientists can get together for a global conspiracy, just FYI, I had a meeting that went down a 20 min long rabbit hole of what "shortwave" and "longwave" radiation mean.
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Remember when 1998 was a big deal because of El Nino and global warming stopped afterward, and all that?
1998 isn't even a top 15 year for global temperature anymore. It wouldn't even come close to being selected among the cool kids in dodgeball,.
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@thomaschattwill
That’s like the 23rd worst smelling thing that one can encounter while walking through nyc
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@toadmeister
You could just tell people you didn't read the paper, don't understand the subject, don't want to talk to anyone who knows about it. Just throw some "free speech" sloganing in your bio and play contrarian for the sake of being contrarian.
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@AliciaMHendley
I am sure as a grad student you would have appreciated all the senior people in your discipline thinking this as you gave talks with "less than a phD." No elitism here.
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There’s been a lot of *innocent* misunderstandings recently about the effects of shipping on aerosols, the Tonga eruption and the role of stratospheric water vapor, El Niño, etc. Don’t punish this, it is evidence there’s a lot of people really interested in climate, and the more
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Last night my mother passed away. Just posting a recent picture I had with her coming to my wedding.
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@benshapiro
So a revolution based on liberation and choice has failed because it doesn’t look exactly like rigid, historical visions of how people should organize themselves in society?
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There’s a part of me that misses the old days of “CO2 lags temperature in the ice core record” or “the greenhouse effect is saturated.”
Now it’s, “I published something interesting but this is bad since I don’t think I could have published something else, but I didn’t try.”
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@RogerPielkeJr
What are you even talking about? There’s been multiple studies, and no one is complaining about more. It’s an interesting eruption for many reasons. Yet they show that this is small potatoes in the context of global temperature. “Just asking questions”(TM) isn’t going to change
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Intro to seasons:
The Earth is tilted bigly. Venus wishes it had our tilt. Lying Venus says it has a tilt of 180 degrees. They just say that because it spins backwards. Lying Venus. Venus doesn't have the guts to have seasons! I watched her on FOX news and agree she is hell.
In the beautiful Midwest, windchill temperatures are reaching minus 60 degrees, the coldest ever recorded. In coming days, expected to get even colder. People can’t last outside even for minutes. What the hell is going on with Global Waming? Please come back fast, we need you!
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@SenatorRennick
@MichaelEMann
You have no idea what you’re talking about, just saying irrelevant things. No one is “canceling” or saying anything about convection/ gravity. Indeed, convection occurs due to the dynamic instability of a radiative equilibrium atmosphere.
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As the climate warms, mean precipitation doesn’t go up that much, but the most intense precipitation events do. They scale ~ with water vapor changes, about 7% per K. When that moisture is strongly converging in a region, you get a lot of rain, and this will keep happening.
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The return of very low quality climate denial (highlighting short-term trends, letting people know points in the past were hotter, etc) is all over my Twitter...it's so obviously coordinated just based on how repetitive and absurd it is.
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Scientists- I wish our politicians understood science better
Politicians-
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@CHSommers
@virusofweird
@RS_Benedict
People: making up CHS stances
CHS: Here is what I said
People: Stop promoting ur stuff LoLZ
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Occasionally seeing climate skeptic twitter talking about how Venus is not an example of how a pronounced greenhouse effect keeps a planet warm. This is for you 🧵
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🧵When reading on impacts of climate change you may be asking yourself, “Is this a robust response to a warming planet?” Especially when you see a big signal quickly, like the latest reports on Antarctic sea ice. One useful exercise is to separate thermodynamic & dynamic impacts
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Events like this will be more common in a climate where intense precipitation goes up by ~7% per degree of atmospheric warming. It also highlights the incoherence of questions about the fraction of the event caused by climate change vs. natural variability. Instead, what it means
BREAKING NEWS: New York has declared a state of emergency urging everyone to stay off the roads‼️
Hard not to believe climate change played a role in today.
I hope everyone and their property manages to stay safe. 🙏🏼
#flooding
#NYCFlood
#ClimateEmergency
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Is there a word for someone being wrong about everything?
Comprehensive discussion by Soon &Connollys on controversies surrounding their research on sun-climate connections & surface temperature record. Detailed explanations and arguments; their analyses shouldnt be dismissed. Soon et al.: +1,
@climateofgavin
: 0
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This officer is incredibly brave and deserves an immediate promotion.
Here’s the scary moment when protesters initially got into the building from the first floor and made their way outside Senate chamber.
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A reminder that the main reason studies say "cold kills more than heat" is because there are many more "cold days" than "hot days" (relative to their benchmark). So even things like respiratory infections occurring during mildly cooler days gets similar treatment as a deep
8x as many people die from cold temperatures as warm ones. The right answer to all temperature-related deaths is more access to fossil fuels. These are inconvenient truths for the climate cult. The real emergency isn’t climate change, it’s the man-made disaster of climate change
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At this rate corona-rhetoric may have reached where climate denial is now.
Climate missed the one where blood sacrifices to corona would cause it to go away and save the economy.
Or, maybe that will be climate denial in 20 years.
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This is Alya, a high school junior I mentored since beginning of summer on low vs. high obliquity climates & habitability. She finally got to present today in a very large multi-county competition. She did great!
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Quick thread 🧵 on climate sensitivity, warming in the pipeline, and acceleration.
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The Berkeley Earth team was worried about many things and then did their analysis and found the same answer. No one is colluding to agree on anything. The global temperature record just doesn’t move much no matter what choices people make for various issues. Like the existence of
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The estimated temperature response to this is ~0.04 C, see . This is much smaller than the effects of climate change (relative to even decades ago) or El Nino (relative to a few months ago).
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I did write my dissertation on how volcanoes influence climate...
@CColose
@jimdtweet
What a 'brilliant' comment. Did you even read my article? Tell me about how volcanoes can warm the climate. And read the paper Solar Forcing for CMIP6 . Remind me, what institution did you receive a Ph.D. from?
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@ericsteig
@mclaurenseries
I don't understand how millions of iterative life events could conspire to produce someone who writes this nonsense.
Keep dorking away.
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@skdh
Averaging climate models is not how assessments of climate sensitivity are determined. These use multiple lines of evidence from historical to multiple paleo intervals to a range of models, all of which yield distributions of sensitivity. There's no hesitation to "admit" to a
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I’ve seen a lot of confusion recently about some concepts in climate related to sensitivity, feedbacks, “tipping points,” runaway warming, & how that relates to emission choices humans make in the future. This 🧵 is to help. I’ll start simple then get more technical.
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