Bright Line Watch
@BrightLineWatch
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An initiative to monitor democratic practices in the U.S. and call attention to threats to American democracy.
Joined February 2017
New @BrightLineWatch report https://t.co/bp9rsPrY8p Key findings: -Experts view Trump immunity claim as profound threat to democracy, identify second term scenarios threatening democracy as likely. -Public polarized on Trump legal claims and cases Detailed findings in 🧵 (1/9)
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New @BrightLineWatch report on “Courts, campaigns, and confidence in American democracy” with @BrendanNyhan , @GretchenHlmk, Sue Stokes, and @obboutin - https://t.co/axrCiDCVR6 1/n
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New @BrightLineWatch survey https://t.co/uebjVmJRKf Ratings of the performance of U.S. democracy overall are up slightly since last summer, but experts and the public both expect democratic decline in the future, especially if Donald Trump is re-elected. (9/9)
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New @BrightLineWatch survey https://t.co/uebjVmJRKf Rs are confident that their own votes (79%) and votes in their state (77%) will be counted as intended in 2024. However, just 54% of Rs are confident in the national vote count in 2024. Democrats are much more confident. (8/9)
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New @BrightLineWatch survey https://t.co/uebjVmJRKf Experts also expect Trump to attempt to stay in office beyond 2029, invoke Insurrection Act, and leave NATO. Majorities of Rs approve of first two and 32% would approve him trying to stay in office past January 2029. (7/9)
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New @BrightLineWatch survey https://t.co/uebjVmKpzN If Trump wins, experts expect him to fire Jack Smith, pardon Jan. 6 insurrectionists, suspend ongoing prosecutions, pardon himself, and open criminal investigations into opponents. Rs overwhelming approve of these actions (6/9)
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New @BrightLineWatch survey https://t.co/bp9rsPrY8p A majority of the public believes Biden would have been prosecuted for his handling of classified documents if he’d been someone else, including 43% of Democrats and 88% of Republicans, but just one-fifth of experts agree (5/9)
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New @BrightLineWatch survey https://t.co/bp9rsPrY8p Fewer than half of Americans think the prosecutions of Trump are politically motivated (Rs ~80%, Ds ~25%). Experts generally don't agree – but more (40%) think the NY hush money case is. (4/9)
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New @BrightLineWatch survey https://t.co/bp9rsPrY8p 54% of the public trusts the Supreme Court to make impartial decisions in Trump-related cases. Confidence higher among Republicans (69%) than among Democrats (44%). (3/9)
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New @BrightLineWatch survey https://t.co/bp9rsPrY8p Democrats and Republicans are polarized over disqualification from ballot and over Trump claim to criminal immunity. Overall support for immunity is lower. Experts regard immunity as a serious threat to democracy. (2/9)
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NEW: @BrightLineWatch report featuring detailed public/expert survey data on Trump cases https://t.co/jG6IM5AYZL -Few Rs think Trump broke law (unlike experts) but ↑ since docs charges -Rs split on punishment for specific docs charges -Experts still rate as benefit to democracy
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Features our new @BrightLineWatch report
Doubts over integrity of American politics remain in run-up to midterm contests
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New report!
NEW: @BrightLineWatch on state of US democracy https://t.co/YtUEPDqc3Q -R acceptance of Biden win/trust in natl. vote ↑ vs '21, but vote confidence still ↓ vs '20 -Pervasive candidate denialism -Experts: Trump run profound democratic threat, prosecution major benefit 🧵 below
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NEW: @BrightLineWatch on state of US democracy https://t.co/YtUEPDqc3Q -R acceptance of Biden win/trust in natl. vote ↑ vs '21, but vote confidence still ↓ vs '20 -Pervasive candidate denialism -Experts: Trump run profound democratic threat, prosecution major benefit 🧵 below
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Read the thread and the full report for this essential work from THE scholars studying the health and viability of US government. Mostly discouraging news, with a few bright elements of hope. Amazing work @BrightLineWatch!
New @BrightLineWatch on state of US democracy. https://t.co/Zhm3mmGzzn - Partisan divisions over the legitimacy of the 2020 election remain profound. Confidence in the 2022 elections is already more polarized than confidence in the 2020 election was in October of that year.
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More on threats to US democracy @newyorker, with commentary from @BrightLineWatch’s @BrendanNyhan here
newyorker.com
As the Democrats discover what Mark Meadows, Donald Trump, and others did, experts say they must also enact reforms to safeguard democracy—while they still control Congress.
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See also this thread from @johncarey03755 summarizing the results
New @BrightLineWatch on state of US democracy. https://t.co/Zhm3mmGzzn - Partisan divisions over the legitimacy of the 2020 election remain profound. Confidence in the 2022 elections is already more polarized than confidence in the 2020 election was in October of that year.
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Finding 12 from our new @BrightLineWatch report https://t.co/giHo0GsH8p Experts saw two recent events as especially important and abnormal - widespread rejection of the 2020 results by 2022 GOP candidates and the embrace of false claims about 2020 by GOP Sec. of State candidates
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Finding 11 from our new @BrightLineWatch report https://t.co/giHo0GKhZX Experts were overwhelmingly supportive of proposed reforms to American government that do not require amending the Constitution, but perceived them as having relatively low chances of being enacted.
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