Leadership from the largest stocks isn’t unusual. Despite concerns over concentration risk, the S&P 500 ’s top 50 stocks have outperformed the broader index for most of the post-2010 period, showing that market leadership has remained structurally top-heavy.

The S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index (BPI) - which measures the % of stocks on buy signals - has broken its downtrend. Last breakout was in April. That signals improving participation and internal market strength beneath the surface, solidifying the case for a Santa Claus rally.

Jensen Huang on Joe Rogan podcast: “In the next 6-7 years you are going to see a bunch of small nuclear reactors.” URA (Uranium ETF) might be one of the most undervalued plays for AI exposure. $URA #Uranium $NVDA #NVIDIA

Apple stocks is currently trading lower and at risk of snapping its 7-day winning streak. This would mark its strongest streak since April and only the 49th such instance since 1980. $AAPL

Over the past 15+ years, the S&P 500 ’s growth–value ratio has structurally favored growth. This market trend typically persists until a major recession resets stock risk preferences (temporarily). Markets evolve - allocations that fail to adapt might risk falling behind.

Amazon now generates about $6 in revenue for every $1 spent on R&D. That’s slightly lower than pre-ChatGPT levels, but still not bad considering its business model.

Percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day moving average has broken the downtrend that began in July. A positive breadth signal as the market enters a seasonally strong period. Though a chance for Zweig or Waley breadth thrust is slim, this is supportive for a Dec rally.

The S&P 500 has gained over 80% on a rolling 3-year basis. While such strength can look overextended and often leads to softer forward returns, our base case sees the current regime resembling 1997–98, where gains continued with limited drawdowns.

Bitcoin jumped over 5% yesterday after news that Vanguard will now allow crypto ETFs on its platform. Its biggest one-day gain in the past six months.

Amazon now generates about $6 in revenue for every $1 spent on R&D. That’s slightly lower than pre-ChatGPT levels, but still not bad considering its business model.

December is typically the least volatile month in Q4 based on the VIX. Volatility tends to peak in October and fades into year-end. This seasonal drop in $VIX can act as another tailwind for a December rally in the S&P 500.

Apple RSI has stayed above 50 for 30+ days while trading within 10% of its all time high. There were 33 such cases in history. 12 months later, the positivity rate was a decent 78%, but $AAPL stock gained over 25% on average.

Since 1950, the S&P 500 has bottomed between Dec 1–5 about 42% of the time. Early-December weakness in stocks shouldn’t be viewed as bearish. Historically, it has marked a strong buying window in the market.

S&P 500 made its last ATH in October. But a reminder that in strong years with 10%+ gains through October, the market usually doesn’t make its final top until the last weeks of December. October peaks haven’t typically marked the end of the move.

$AMZN stock jumps after announcing its in-house AI chip. No surprise - Amazon consistently leads the Mag 7 in Research & Development spending. A good reminder: investors should worry about companies that don’t invest in R&D, not the ones that do.#AMZN #Amazon

Percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day moving average has broken the downtrend that began in July. A positive breadth signal as the market enters a seasonally strong period. Though a chance for Zweig or Waley breadth thrust is slim, this is supportive for a Dec rally.

Ethereum is up over 8% in just a few hours, but it’s still 39% below its all-time high. Crypto uncertainty could persist into Jan 2026 as markets await MSCI’s decision on whether to include crypto-treasury companies in its indices. #Crypto $ETH

The last two months of the S&P 500 have historically been strong in post-election years. The index has never finished Nov–Dec negative in the past 7 post-election years, and only once in the last 12. Seasonality can't always be relied on but it can be a tailwind.

A 0.5%+ gap down on the S&P 500’s first trading day of the month has historically been bullish for the rest of the month. 92% positive with a 4.5% avg gain for market. It flushes weak hands early, meets fresh month-start inflows, and often flips dealer gamma toward buying. $SPY

Fun stat: S&P 500 gapped down 0.54% today on the first trading day of the month. Bearish? Au contraire - it’s bullish. Since 1961, there were 13 such cases. The S&P 500 finished the month higher 12/13 times, with an average market gain of 4.5%, well above normal!